Fredi9999 holds over $20 million in bets on Trump's victory, and manipulation on Polymarket raises concerns

BlockBeats news, October 18, according to Cointelegraph, with less than three weeks to go before the US presidential election, the behavior of Polymarket's top bettors has raised concerns about the accuracy and potential manipulation of decentralized prediction markets. Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have continued to rise, largely influenced by Polymarket user "Fredi9999", a major bettor who holds more than $20 million worth of bets in support of Trump.

On October 16, the Polymarket odds of Trump winning the presidential election rose to an all-time high of 60.2%. The situation in Polymarket is now affecting the real world, and many people believe what they see on the platform. "Fredi9999" has had a significant impact on the price of Trump's prediction market, and trading patterns show that "Fredi9999" can control the top four Trump whales on Polymarket. "These accounts all received large deposits from Kraken and immediately began betting on Trump. One user received a large deposit and invested it in Trump winning the popular vote, increasing his support from 26% to 39% in a few hours."

However, Elon Musk believes that decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate than traditional polls in predicting election results. Musk made the remarks after recently increasing his support for Trump. In traditional betting markets, Trump's potential winning odds are also rising. According to data compiled by RealClearPolling, based on the overall betting odds aggregated by top websites, Trump's odds of winning are 58.1%, while Harris's odds of winning are currently 40.4%.