Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market May Be Influenced by Macro Flows, Sees Short-Term Peak at End of Q1

BlockBeats News, January 7th, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in his latest article why he believes the cryptocurrency market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant pullback, by analyzing the first quarter 2025 USD liquidity environment and its impact on the crypto market. With the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) balance decreasing and the Treasury General Account (TGA) funds being released, it is expected that approximately $612 billion in liquidity will be injected in the first quarter, providing support for Bitcoin and other assets.

However, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by around $180 billion, and the debt ceiling issue may trigger a liquidity shift in the second quarter. The Treasury may need to raise the debt ceiling after using the TGA to cover government expenses until May to June, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. Additionally, the peak tax season (such as mid-April) will further dampen market liquidity. Despite various macroeconomic variables, the impact of RRP and TGA fund flows on the market is relatively clear. In conclusion, the market is expected to reach a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, followed by a potential correction.