FOMC Preview: The Fed Expected to Hold Rates This Week, Market Volatility to Remain Elevated

BlockBeats News, March 17th. QCP released its daily market observation report, stating that over the weekend, a BTC whale opened a $400 million BTC short position, sparking market volatility on Sunday. Some groups attempted to trigger the liquidation of this 40x leveraged position, which only required a 2.5% price move to be liquidated. Despite these efforts, the position remained intact and has accumulated almost $400,000 in funding fees.

Currently, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index stands at 32 (fear), reflecting persistent risk aversion sentiment, especially in the context of overall bearish stock market sentiment. This further underscores BTC's role as a macro hedge tool.

Despite the turbulent market sentiment, BTC has held above $80,000, demonstrating resilience compared to the US stock market. In contrast, US stock index futures opened lower this morning amid growing concerns of an economic recession. Previously, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the possibility of an economic recession cannot be ruled out, aligning with Trump's previous remarks. The market will focus on tonight's release of US retail sales data to assess whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an early sign of slowing consumer spending or merely a pullback after the 2024 holiday season shopping spree.

Due to the current lack of strong narrative drivers in the crypto market, the market focus remains on the US stock market. Last week, US CPI data came in below expectations, briefly easing market tension, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish in the short term. With tariff risks and inflation concerns still looming, rate cut expectations remain uncertain. Therefore, we expect the Fed to maintain interest rates at this week's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. However, as the market is searching for any clues about the Fed's future policy direction, especially amidst the uncertainty of Trump's policy changes, market volatility is expected to remain at elevated levels.