Ethereum Futures Premium Hits Nearly One-Year Low, Pectra Upgrade to Serve as Key Inflection Point

BlockBeats News, March 29th, according to Cointelegraph, the Ethereum futures premium hit a nearly one-year low, with traders seeing it as a bottom signal, indicating a potential turning point in the market. From the 26th to the 28th of this month, the Ethereum price experienced a sharp 9.3% drop, reaching $1,860 for the first time in two weeks. This correction triggered a $114 million ETH leveraged futures liquidation event, further shrinking the futures' premium over spot to a nearly one-year low. Ethereum monthly futures typically maintain a 5% to 10% premium due to delivery cycle risks, but since the price pullback on March 8th, this indicator has consistently remained below the neutral threshold. Previously, on October 10, 2024, after a 14% sharp drop in two weeks, the ETH premium dropped to 2.6%, followed by a price rebound, and the futures premium quickly bounced back to 7%.

Some analysts have pointed out that the sharp decrease in Ethereum network activity directly undermines ETH's attractiveness. While Layer 2 scaling solutions have improved transaction efficiency, they have led to a contraction in mainnet transaction fee revenue. The competitive landscape facing Ethereum has extended from the public chain level to vertical domains, with Hyperliquid participating in the competition in synthetic assets and perpetual contract racing. Berachain is also building a new model of cross-liquidity pool asset pledging. More dauntingly, the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena, with a TVL of $5.3 billion, announced its migration from Ethereum to its self-developed Layer 1, with a $100 million financing completed in December 2024, providing security for Ethena's ecosystem migration.

With only a few weeks left until the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, investors need to focus on two key innovations: base layer fee optimization and enhanced end-user experience. If the upgrade can substantially enhance the network's competitiveness, ETH may regain its leadership in the altcoin market. Before that, the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend. When the Ethereum futures premium hits rock bottom, it represents not only a technical pullback but also a microcosm of the ecosystem's positioning battle. Whether Ethereum can stand out in the L2 ecosystem's counterattack and competitive encirclement, the Pectra upgrade will be a critical juncture. Astute investors at this moment need to focus more on the substantial improvement of on-chain fundamental metrics rather than being fixated on mechanical "bottom signals."