Citi predicts three trading scenarios for "Tariff Day": overall likelihood of a decrease is greater than an increase

BlockBeats News, March 30th, in its latest report, Citigroup summarized three main scenarios for the April 2nd U.S. tariff policy day and provided the corresponding market impacts:

First is to only announce reciprocal tariffs, in which case the market reaction is relatively limited;

Second is reciprocal tariffs plus Value-Added Tax (VAT), where the U.S. Dollar Index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may also decline;

Third is in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, which also include industry-specific tariffs, in which case the market reaction may be more severe.

The report stated that after the S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a year since 2020, analysts have warned of the greater potential for a subsequent decline rather than a rise. Some analysts also pointed out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key, and that "the market reaction on April 2nd will largely depend on the timing of the tariffs, especially industry-specific tariffs and other countries' speed of response to reciprocal tariffs." (Wall Street News)