QCP: Short-term Outlook Expects Continued Pressure on All Risk Assets, Market Sentiment Remains Gloomy

BlockBeats News, April 2nd, QCP released its daily market observation, stating, "Trump is about to announce a series of tariff measures in the Rose Garden. In the short term, we expect all risk assets to continue to be under pressure. However, as the new situation gradually stabilizes, we may see some 'non-U.S. exceptionalism.' Even if the United States may be marginalized due to policy choices, global stock indices may still continue to rise to new highs."

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 2.5 times by 2025. The Fed is facing challenges, with weak consumer confidence and soft data indicating a possible slowdown in U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter. At the same time, inflation pressures triggered by tariffs may gradually intensify starting from April 2nd. In a classic stagflation environment, the Fed is more likely to raise rates than to cut them. In the current situation, the Fed seems inclined to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

As for cryptocurrencies, market sentiment remains depressed. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate aimlessly, while Ethereum holds above the $1800 support level. Overall, the crypto market shows signs of weakness, with many cryptocurrencies down 90% since the beginning of the year, and some coins falling by over 30% in the past week. Unless there is a significant change in the macroeconomic situation or a strong catalyst appears, we do not expect the market to undergo a substantial reversal. Although light positions may support slight gains, we will not chase any uptrend until there is an improvement in the macro environment."