Analysis: Peer Tariffs Exceed Market Expectations, Escalating US Economic 'Stagflation' Risk

BlockBeats News, April 3rd: On April 2nd, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) published an analysis stating that Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" exceeded market expectations. Reciprocal tariffs use a combination of "blanket" tariffs and a "one country, one tax rate" approach, covering over 60 major economies.

Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the United States could increase significantly from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, a 22.7 percentage point jump, surpassing the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns, exacerbate the risk of economic "stagflation" in the United States. Estimates show that the tariffs could push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points, reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they could also generate over $700 billion in fiscal revenue. Faced with the risk of "stagflation," the Federal Reserve may only choose to wait and see, making it difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of an economic slowdown and add downward pressure on the market. (FXStreet)