Analyst: Market Short-Term Pain May Be Overstated, Focus on SEC New Chairman's Policy Direction

BlockBeats News, April 11th, according to TheBlock, yesterday's release of the March CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2020, providing room for a shift in the Fed's May monetary policy meeting. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier pointed out that "the easing of inflationary pressures may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates and loosen financial conditions. After the CPI data was released yesterday, Bitcoin also held steady above $80,000, but spot ETFs saw net outflows for the sixth consecutive day, marking the longest outflow since February. This reflects the market's difficulty in maintaining continuous bullish momentum. However, a positive aspect is that Wall Street crypto funds may soon see an influx of funds as multiple bullish factors converge, including cooling inflation, peak tariffs, and regulatory easing expectations brought about by SEC's new chairman Paul Atkins."

Just as the market is digesting the inflationary positives, the US bond market is sounding the alarm. The US 10-year Treasury yield broke through the 4.5% mark to hit a new high since 2022. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship, and the soaring yield reflects investors' deep concerns about the government's debt repayment ability. Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, stated via email: "The complex picture painted by low inflation data, a bond market collapse, and a 90-day tariff halt has exposed the structural imbalances in the global economic system."

Despite the Trump administration's announcement of a 90-day suspension of new tariffs, market concerns have not eased. Mike Marshall, research director at Amberdata, pointed out: "The calming effect of the tariff suspension has been severely overestimated, and the current intensity of the trade war continues to escalate. This policy uncertainty is reshaping capital flows, and it is predicted that, in the long term, funds will shift from the fragile bond market to the digital asset sector with practical utility and programmable stability." Faced with the dual signals of cooling inflation and a bond market crisis, the Fed's decision scale is teetering. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier believes that short-term pains may be overstated, and there is room for positive mediation in trade tensions, which may make breakthrough progress in the coming weeks. However, the market is more concerned about structural changes—the policy direction of the SEC's new chairman may become a key variable, and if the promised "crypto-friendly regulatory framework" is implemented as planned, it could inject institutional confidence into the cryptocurrency market.