Analyst: Bitcoin's true bottom may come after 'surrender' sell-off, with $65,000 as key moving average support

BlockBeats News, April 16th, according to a report by CoinDesk, although the possibility of a bottom already being in place cannot be ruled out, on-chain analyst James Check indicated that the real bottom may only come after Bitcoin experiences a true "capitulation event."

James Check suggested that this may entail Bitcoin retracing to around the $65,000 range, which he referred to as the "true market value," representing the average holding cost of active investors. Once it reaches this level, the average investor may start to feel the pressure of unrealized losses, and even long-term holders who have been holding for five years may find themselves in a "drawdown" situation. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin average holding cost is approximately $67,500.

Although Check anticipates a significant drop in Bitcoin from the $65,000 region, he believes there is strong support between $49,000 and $50,000. This price range signifies both the launch price of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 and a critical milestone for Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap. He stated that the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $40,000 is low unless there is a global economic recession. In 2024, Bitcoin underwent a prolonged period of "chopsolidation," with the price fluctuating in a wide range between $50,000 and $70,000 for several months, laying a solid foundation of support for the market.