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Messari's picks from 33 predictions for 2023

Messari

22-12-24 11:39

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Original title: "Crypto Theses for 2023"

Original author: Ryan Selkis, Messari

Original compilation: 0x22d, BlockBeats

On December 22, Messari announced the release of Messari Theses 2023, its sixth annual report from co-founder and CEO Ryan Selkis, focusing on The latest developments in various fields of Crypto such as Bitcoin and stable coins, L1 public chain and Rollup, DeFi, NFT and DAO. The report predicts that 2023 will be a year for cryptocurrencies to further demonstrate their resilience and progress in technology and policy. Ryan Selkis, co-founder and CEO of Messari, said: "There are too many bad actors stealing the limelight in 2022, but there are still projects and people doing critical work to move our industry forward. Now is the time to refocus These people have innovated.”From Messari’s 168-page 2023 Crypto report, BlockBeats has extracted 33 Messari’s predictions and prospects for 2023 and the longer-term Crypto future:

Bitcoin and Stablecoins

1/Bitcoin’s role as a currency will still be questioned, this is Why is it so important to build stablecoin infrastructure in parallel (the right way). Stablecoins are bridge currencies to the future.

Bitcoin is already huge, and its continued rise will be slow but strong.

We are in a race to see if more emerging market central banks start bidding for BTC, or large reserve currency countries start killing the invention. Pro-cryptocurrency folks are starting to show up in previously unlikely places like Harvard's economics department. So despite the market pressure this year, we are closer than ever to success.

2/Bitcoin will overtake the euro, people in Brussels are the most Good to learn how to deal with it.

3/About cryptocurrency mining, bitcoin mining It has to be cleaner and more sustainable.

4/In an environment of rising interest rates, many companies of treasurers may be reluctant to add bitcoin to their balance sheets. With no sign of the Federal Reserve making a major adjustment to interest rate policy, the next burst of demand for Bitcoin is likely to happen at the global government level, rather than those big companies.

5/Most blockchains have public nature, may create opportunities for privacy networks, as well as privacy-focused Layer 2 such as Aztec and Polygon's Nightfall. In the upcoming privacy war, we are most bullish on Zcash and Monero, especially Zcash.

6/ Stablecoins should become a major US export. Despite some autocratic and paternalistic hegemony in the U.S. Congress, the United States will continue to maintain a leadership position in the fields of technology, finance, and encryption. American entrepreneurs have been leading the way in building crypto infrastructure and DeFi. Today, with more than 50 million Americans owning cryptocurrency, America doesn’t need to do more to win the game than lose it.

7/About over-collateralized stablecoins

MakerDAO is like Crypto's cockroach (in a good sense, of course). While Dai circulation has halved from its March 2022 peak to $5 billion, it has once again shown resilience amid a brutal bear market. Despite repeated hits to crypto lending, MakerDAO and Dai haven’t experienced any real issues or de-anchoring.

8/About Algorithmic Stablecoins

Terra's system-wide seigniorage model is still viable. But growth must be pursued conservatively, taking advantage of "insurance" contracts backed by transaction and loan fees. For example, if Terra can take advantage of the net interest spread of sister lending protocol Anchor, and provide it to the insurance fund, they may have a chance to avoid a run. But when you go out the window with conservative, fee-driven growth, the risk fence goes away. The model works, but we probably shouldn't continue to take risks. Is it really a good thing to breathe oxygen to these planned black swans?

The current stablecoin market is quite chaotic, but Crypto still needs a new algorithmic stablecoin to succeed. I believe we will get an anti-inflation algorithmic stablecoin.

9/What is more stable than a $60 billion algorithm What's Worse About Coin Crash and Bankruptcy? - CBDC.

A CBDC would be the equivalent of the FAA flying the planes and building the jet engines themselves, rather than defining competing, rules-based safe passage through the skies.

L1 public chain and Rollup

10/Ethereum in the next few years will clean up technical debt, determine the size and security of Rollup, and ensure that the EVM remains censorship-resistant. The Ethereum merger completed this year will make derivatives such as Lido's stETH ubiquitous. And censorship is the main problem after the merger of Ethereum.

11/Layer1 public chain war will be like a browser Great War is similar. That said, EVM and one or two other players may be the winners, but dozens of L1 blockchains are unlikely to succeed together.

12/If ZK Rollups As the scalability benefits of blockchains become more apparent, they could proliferate as they theoretically offer users cheaper transaction fees. Rollups have better interoperability, throughput, and lower fees, but the jury is still out on whether they can effectively compete with other L1 public chains. Rollup gains the security of Ethereum, but transaction costs are still an order of magnitude higher than many L1s.

13/Rollup and the value accumulation of modular blockchains is questionable because Unclear how much economic value will actually flow to the consensus and data availability layer compared to transaction settlement and execution. Some DApps will have to monitor if liquidity ends up fragmented between Rollups due to insecure cross-chain infrastructure . But as we continue to move towards a multi-rollup world with less reliance on Ethereum L1, cheaper transactions, and better usability, expect some new tools in this area (we still need cross-chain bridges).

14/Aptos, Sui These upstarts have strong teams, supporters, and networks, but it’s questionable how much value the upstarts will end up having in the midst of a crypto winter.

At the end of 15/2020, we believe Ethereum's leading is impeccable. It became less certain at the end of last year as we were pessimistic that the merger would be completed in a timely manner. Now, again, I'm bullish on Ethereum's dominance, not sure if we should be happy.

DeFi

16/Uniswap V3 is an impeccable AMM protocol, but that doesn't mean other DEXs can't compete with it. Competition may revolve around dynamic fees that adjust with volume or volatility, or oracle performance and reliability. What is certain is that it is impossible for other DEXs to replace Uniswap through Tokenomics or marginal price advantages. Don't compete on fees, compete on value.

17/It is expected that Lido will become the leading player in the Crypto industry in 2023 The DApp that generates the most transaction fees. In the new year, Rocket Pool's market share will be 5–10 times what it is now.

18/2023, Crypto Asset Management will invest The center of gravity turns to DAO. It is now easier to create rules-based asset management companies in code, and protocols that allow on-chain funds and indicators will be easier to add value.

19/Nori, Flowcarbon, KlimaDAO and Toucan and other encryption protocols It is worth noting that these agreements have laid the foundation for reducing carbon footprints by transforming the fragmented carbon trading market, and have the ability to bring transparency, liquidity and aggregation to the global green market. Whenever you can invest in a sustainable, green, socially conscious organization, you should.

20/Most DeFi users and their transaction volume may need to complete KYC in the next few years to continue.

21/2022 $3 billion on-chain attack, Let security audit firms continue to receive investment in 2023.

NFT

22/The potential of NFT is still worth believing.

23/Yuga Labs had an interesting year, and while ApeCoin was puzzling, the A virtual community with nearly 100,000 people is as incomprehensible as TikTok and the Kardashian family. Also puzzling is the fact that Dogecoin and Shiba are more valuable than Uniswap. However, the Ape community really is one of the few things that has grown during this hellish year.

24/ We will continue to be on Twitter at the helm of Elon Musk See more NFT experiments (more in the Decentralized Social section).

25/2023, NFT fashion products will open up a new Chance. Whether it's purely digital or a physical/digital hybrid, there's plenty of demand. Gucci is selling digital versions of physical bags on Roblox for $800 more than the “real” ones.

26/GameFi is currently the most overhyped segment in Crypto , we are bearish on GameFi.

27/Still bullish on the future of AR/VR, but not planning to bet on it, do so this year The face of the person was swollen.

28/OpenSea will be a $100 billion company. Coinbase NFTs fail, FTX NFTs disappear, and OpenSea's advantage becomes more apparent.

29/The design space of NFT is much larger than that of FT. NFT will only be touched after privacy products and DAOs. NFTs will become the ubiquitous standard for wrapping financial assets, just like wrapping monkey JPEGs is now.

DAO

30 / Encryption infrastructure will grow exponentially in regions where governments are aggressively controlling dissent and cracking down on speech, and there is a huge opportunity to cater to gray market customers. Encrypted infrastructure will be the backbone of the free and open web, worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

31/ While it won't happen overnight, DAOs will change in the years to come Countless aspects of the economy, politics and society at large.

32/However, the current management structure of DAOs is not sustainable, and many DAOs hold a large amount of Their own native Token, the investment portfolio lacks diversity, and they missed the opportunity to enrich the investment portfolio in the bull market. 2023 will be a bloodbath for crypto startups, and it will be even worse in the decentralized community.

33/2023 will be the best time to create a media DAO, through which $10 million is enough Funding a crypto media powerhouse of 50 of the industry's top researchers and journalists.