Data comparison Optimism, Arbitrum and Polygon, who can win the Battle of Layer2?

Article source: @defi_mochi

Crush, a core contributor to Biteye

With the arrival of the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and the sudden increase in tokens and LSD (Liquid stake derivatives), one of the obvious narratives for 2023 is Ethereum Layer 2.

Who will ultimately win the L2 war, and what are the implications of on-chain wallet and transaction data? I've crunched some data with Dune to help you find out!

This topic will cover:

-L2 Transaction analysis

- New Wallet analysis

- Wallet balance analysis

- User distribution  

-TVL comparison summary

01. L2 Transaction analysis

Trading volumes of both Optimism and Polygon have risen markedly over the past six months, starting in October.

Volumes at Arbitrum peaked around the time of the FTX crash in November, when many people ran to GMX to trade decentralized perpetual contracts.

Even for ERC20 deals, daily Optimism has increased exponentially, from barely 400,000 in October to nearly 1.5 million a day.

As an established L2, Polygon is leading the way in daily trading, but it's clear Optimism is catching up with it.

It is particularly impressive that Optimism held just 5% of the L2 circuit market in October, but now controls almost 20.1%.

Surprisingly, Arbitrum's share of the ERC20 transaction market has fallen from a high of 25% in October to 15% now.

Although Optimism is often used more often in the pursuit of secondary airdrops, looking at the ERC721 trade (NFT), Polygon is far and away the optimism Optimism, as their partnership with Reddit accounts for more than 80% of transactions.

Arbitrum's NFT ecosystem, however, is not so strong, as they own only 4% of all transactions.

02, new wallet analysis

In terms of wallet addresses, Polygon leads the way thanks to its partnership with Reddit, which has contributed more than 4 million wallets out of 14 million.

To my surprise, the number of Arbitrum and Optimism purses isn't even a tenth of Polygon's.

When Reddit NFT peaked in October, Polygon contributed almost 96% of new wallets created at that time.

Since then, though, Optimism and Arbitrum have gained more traction, with both optimistic rollup now attracting 27 percent of new wallets.

The number of new wallets created on Polygon peaked in October, just as Reddit's NFT was at its peak, with a high of 4 million transactions.

But how many people on Polygon and Optimism are pure masturbating? How many Reddit NFT holders are there? How many other fake addresses are there? This is where wallet balance analysis comes in!

To be fair, on Polygon I only included wallet addresses with a balance.

03. Wallet balance analysis

For one thing, 63 percent of Arbitrum's wallets have balances of less than $10. Interestingly, of all L2's, Arbitrum has the highest percentage of wallets with balances above $100,000.

Total wallets with a balance: $750,000 - $10,000:4.3% $10,000 - $100,000:1.59% more than $100,000:0.5%

Despite having fewer wallets overall, Optimism actually had more active wallets (with a non-zero balance), with 789,000 wallets in total.

Only 45 percent were worth less than $10, while more than 20 percent had balances between $100 and $1,000.

$10,000 - $100,000:1% greater than $100,000:0.28%

Not surprisingly, since most Polygon wallets only hold NFT, nearly 75% of them have balances of less than $10. In addition, only 5 million of the 14 million wallets have erc20 tokens.

$1 - $10,000:3% $10,000 - $100,000:0.78% Greater than $100,000:0.17%

04. User distribution

While Arbitrum is facing a crisis of declining transaction volumes, the money in the top wallets appears to be more concentrated, with Arbitrum owning nearly 25% of whale wallets (value > 100,000 U), although erc20 has 4.3 million fewer wallets than Polygon.

But OP had 2,255 wallets with balances greater than $100,000, while Arbi had 3,968.

Even for dolphins (with balances in the $10,000 - $100,000 range), Arbitrum has a respectable 20 percent and Optimism just 12 percent.

05. TVL distribution

Let's take a look at DefiLlama's TVL. Although the transaction volume is small, Arbitrum's TVL shows exponential growth.

It has only recently fallen from 2.7% to 2.5%, while Optimism has stagnated since November.

Optimism and Arbitrum showed significant negative growth in monthly TVL changes, and Polygon, on the other hand, was up 7 percent for the month.

In addition, Optimism TVL is almost half that of Arbitrum, while Arbitrum and Polygon TVL are quite close.

06. Summary

Current Arbitrum transactions are down, but there still seems to be a lot of TVL flowing into the chain, with a high concentration of whale wallets.

The degree of user activity is not high, but Arbitrum can also improve the current situation through airdrops and missions like Optimism.

Optimism is very good at engaging users, especially through a variety of tasks.

But with the upgrade of Optimism Bedrock coming, I'd like to see more agreement migration to Optimism, as well as Arbitrum level defi innovation on it.

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