Week 3 On-chain data: the market has entered the stage of continuous accumulation; High weight selling pressure overall is not big

The original title: ", Yang and qi zhi | WTR 1.23"

WatchToweR Crypto

Review of the week

This week, from January 17 to January 23, the highest was near $23,390, the lowest was near $20,386, and the volatility reached about 14.7%.

Observe the chip distribution chart, in about   $20500  There are a lot of chips nearby, there will be some support or pressure.

•分析： 

1223000 ~ 28000 about 830,000;  

2.18500 ~ 22500  About 2.26 million;  

 •其中短期内跌不破 18500～22500 的概率为 75 %。

Important information

Important information

Economic news

•美国 

1. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) :

a. Total existing home sales fell 34% in December from 35.5% in November and 1.5% from 7.7% in November.

(photo credit: NAR)

b. The median sales price of existing homes rose 2.3 percent in December from a year earlier.  

c.12 月份首次购房者占销售量的 31%，高于 11 月的 28% 和 2021 年 12 月的 30%； 

d. Fully paid sales accounted for 28% in December, up from 26% in November and 23% in December 2021;  

e. As of December, the number of registered housing stocks was 13.4 per cent lower than in November, but 10.2 per cent higher than in the same period last year;  

f. In current market conditions, it will take 2.9 months for the inventory of unsold homes to be consumed by the market, compared to 3.3 months in November and 1.7 months in December 2021;

g. The forecast indicates that existing home sales will show positive growth year-on-year in the third quarter of this year;

h. Rates on 30-year fixed loans averaged 6.15% this week, compared with 6.33% last week and 3.56% a year ago.

(photo credit: NAR)

2. 本周劳工部数据显示： 

a. PPI (producer price index) grew 6.2% y/y in December, vs. 7.3% exp. & 6.8% exp.

b. December PPI -0.5% vs. 0.2% exp. -0.1% exp.

c. 剔除波动较大的食品、能源和贸易服务，美国 12 月核心 PPI 同比增长 4.6%，前值为增长 4.9%。环比增长 0.1%，前值为增长 0.2%； d. 根据劳工部数据，2022 年 PPI 中商品价格指数和最终服务价格指数的环比和同比情况如下：

(photo credit: BLS)

a.12 月 PPI 环比数据中：

i. The commodity price index fell 1.6 percent, mainly due to a 13.4 percent drop in gasoline prices. The final energy price index fell 7.9 percent and the food price index fell 1.2 percent.

ii. Final service prices increased by 0.1 per cent, mainly due to a 17.6 per cent increase in the retail margin on fuels and lubricants.  

 3. 本周普查局数据显示： a. 去年 12 月零售销售环比下降 1.1%，但同比增加 6%；

a. 扣除汽车和汽油后，12 月核心零售销售环比下降 0.7%；

b. Full-year sales in 2022 increased 9.2% compared to 2021, and full-year sales in 2022, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, increased 8.5% compared to 2021.  

4. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell to a four-month low this week as data on the unemployment rate and employment rate pointed to labor market strength.  

5. U.S. government spending reaches the legal debt limit, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, suspending debt issuance from January 19 to June 5.  

  • UK & European Union

1. UK core CPI rose 6.3% on-year in December, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS), slightly above expectations of 6.2% and 6.3% last. Headline CPI rose 10.5% in December from a year earlier, in line with expectations and compared with 10.7% in the previous reading.

2. Norway's central bank put its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.75 per cent. It also indicated that it could not rule out a quarter-point increase in March, leaving rates at 3 per cent.  

  • Asia Pacific  

1. On January 20, 2023, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of China's loan market was 3.65% for 1-year maturity and 4.3% for 5-year maturity, both of which remained unchanged compared with last month.

2. Japan's Interior Ministry releases December CPI data:  

a. Headline CPI rose 4%, in line with market expectations;  

b. Core CPI excluding fresh food rose 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations and 3.6% last.  

c. For the whole year of 2022, Japan's core CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year.  

3. The RBA will raise rates two more times from the current level of 3.1 per cent, taking them to a peak of 3.6 per cent as it nears the end of its hiking cycle.

1. Malaysia's central bank stopped raising interest rates this week, leaving its benchmark rate at 2.75%.  

  • Other

1. Angola, Africa's third-largest oil producer, this week cut its policy rate by 150 basis points from 19.5% to 18%.

Encrypted ecomessaging

1. 瑞银董事长 Colm Kelleher ：正在寻找监管框架，以能够为客户提供投资数字 Token 服务。 

2.Circle and Uniswap said at Davos that DeFi could address forex risk and reduce the cost of cross-border remittances by 80 percent, equivalent to $30 billion in annual savings.  

3. Crypto AI tokens Nine tokens linked to the industry have risen more than 50 percent in the past week, driven by Microsoft's potential $10 billion investment in OpenAl.  

4.ETH2.0 pledges exceeded 17 million ETH, about $26.89 billion, the total number of verifiers was 500,000, and the APR reward was about 3.8%. ETH supply, again negative since December 2 last year, decreased by 24.10 pieces from the time of consolidation, and now has an annualized deflation rate of 0.09%.  

5.BN completed the 22nd BNB destruction, this time a total of 2.05 million BNBS, worth about $616 million.

6. The Filecoin Foundation, which will test IPFs-based communications in space.

7. Russia and Iran are exploring the introduction of a gold-anchored Stablecoin, a token that could replace the dollar, ruble and Iranian rial as means of payment in foreign trade settlements.

8. "We want to create a legal regulatory framework for digital assets that makes the U.S. a leader from an innovation perspective, while also protecting consumers and investors," said French Hill, director of the U.S. House Digital Assets Subcommittee.

Long-term insight: To look at our long-term situation; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral

Intermediate probe: To analyze what stage we are in, how long will we be in this stage, and what situation will we face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the possibility of certain directions and certain events under certain circumstances

Long-term insight

•长期通胀率 

• Revenue percentage  

•中观抛压状态

This week's focus will be on inflation, earnings ratios, and mid-range selling pressure.

(Chart below for long-term inflation)

Long-term inflation rates tend to show certain macro trends within the broader trends that determine them.

The history of extremely high inflation and extreme deflation tends to imply two extremes of the price zone.

Usually thought of as top and bottom, for now, inflation is down a bit.

However, the relative trend of the market is positive, which proves that certain market capacity is gradually increasing, which is completely different from the end of 2021.

(See chart below for profit percentage)

While current prices have not come much off the bottom, after a long period of wandering, earnings are looking a bit like mid-2019.

If you look at it in the medium term, you might get to a slightly awkward stage, but if you look at it in the medium term, it's more important to be able to defend.

(in the figure below, the state of selling pressure)

This is the proportional state of the total throw pressure on the combined chain;

In terms of historical performance, the state of performance is also very strong, and in many cases the right side is more prominent.

From the current long-term form of performance, the state of selling pressure is still relatively low.

Intermediate probe        

•长、短期成本基础 

• Composite model: Network emotional positivity and high weight selling pressure  

• Exchange trend net position  

• Illiquid supply  

• Accumulate trend points

•购买力差值

Sentiment Rating: Slightly higher short-term costs, low high weight selling pressure

(Chart below shows long and short term cost basis)

Yellow line: short-term cost

Blue line: Long-term cost

At present, the short-term cost is still lower than the long-term cost. The short-term cost has an inflection point, and the market may have signs of repair.

(The composite model below: network emotional positivity and high weight selling pressure)

Discuss the headwinds the market will face when trading sentiment rises.

Blue zone: Net position in trading sentiment

Purple area: high weight selling pressure

Orange line: Trading sentiment curve

In the second half of 2021,

Trading sentiment has a strong influence on the market, may at this time high weight selling pressure on the market is weak.

However, when the trading sentiment into "slow growth", "significant pullback"

At this time, high weight selling pressure may have a larger blow to the market.

In the recent market, high weight selling pressure did not rise significantly, may be the key to market sentiment repair.

Current trading sentiment has slightly slowed growth, but high weight selling pressure has not been imposed on the market.

May not appear resistance, trading sentiment is still on the rise, there is a slight slowdown.

Floor condition rating: Slow accumulation

(Chart below shows net exchange trend position)

From the state of exchange trend net position, it is in a relatively slow accumulation.

(Chart below shows illiquid supply)

Illiquid supply is still slowly accumulating.

(Cumulative trend points in the figure below)

At present, each address does not form the state of "accumulation" and "resultant force".

It is possible that the current weak accumulation will constitute price instability.

(Purchasing power difference in the chart below)

Red and green areas: net purchasing power position

Orange: BTC and ETH inflows > 0

Purchasing power is still partial stock, the inflow of BTC and ETH in the field > 0, there may be slight resistance.

Short-term observation

•衍生品风险系数 •期权意向成交比 •衍生品成交量 •期权隐含波动率 •盈利亏损转移量 •新增地址和活跃地址 •冰糖橙交易所净头寸 •姨太交易所净头寸 •高权重抛压 •全球购买力状态 •稳定币交易所净头寸 •链下交易所数据

Derivatives rating: Derivatives risk is back, but trading is sluggish

(The figure below shows derivative risk coefficient)

The model is being tweaked and reworked.

Derivatives risk from the previous relatively high, has begun to decline initially.

In the future period of time, the basic parameters will be readjustedand do different stages of probability transfer.

(Option intent to volume ratio below)

Call options are finally starting to fall a bit.

The current high prices have also made it impossible for some derivatives traders to have a high probability of winning, thus reducing their positions.

（下图 衍生品成交量）

Derivatives trading took a turn for the worse and volumes began to fall.

In space judgment, low trading volume, it is difficult to give birth to a huge space.

So in the trading strategy, position proportion and risk control, judgment volume is extremely important.

(Chart below shows options implied volatility)

The IV curve also further confirms that a large number of traders have made bullish sell moves before.

Then, after the price boom, it got into a lot of squeezing.

Leading to extreme changes in the structure of the market, further squeezing prices.

In the future the structure of the derivatives market will further affect the market.

Emotional status rating: The mood remains good

(The figure below shows the transfer of profit and loss)

The profit selling pressure is not high, of course, when the market has just risen, the selling pressure is the biggest, but because of the stronger ability to undertake, bear down.

Now the overall bearish side of the market performance has been weaker and weaker, need to continue to pay attention to late changes.

(New address and active address below)

Within a week, the number of newly added addresses gradually exceeds the number of active addresses.

Indicating that the price increase has triggered more changes in new addresses.

Spot and sell pressure structure rating: sell pressure is not prominent

(Below chart: Net position of Crystal orange Exchange)

The market has entered a phase of continuous accumulation.

(High weight throw pressure below)

High weight selling pressure overall is not big.

Not many high-weight players are rushing to cash out.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power increased, stablecoin temporarily lost

(Chart below shows the state of global purchasing power)

The global purchasing power market is led by America and Asia, followed by Europe.

The first big recovery in global purchasing power in two months.

(Chart below USDC Exchange Net position)

Stablecoin support as a whole began to slowly decline this week.

(Chart below USDT Exchange net position)

The USDT is not quite the same style as the USDC. The USDT has a large inflow at the low level and an outflow at the high level.

Now things are starting to weaken.

In the absence of derivatives, once the support capacity is reduced, the future space will be limited.

Down - chain transaction data rating: there is no sell order for down - chain data

(Figure below shows data from Coinbase chain)

The purchase intention is $22,300, $20,000, $19,000, $18,000.

(Figure below shows data under Binance chain)

Intention to buy is $22,000, $21,600 and $19800 respectively.

(The figure below shows data under Bitfinex chain)

Intention to buy at $20,900.

This time, the purchase intention is moved up to 22300,22000 and 20900.

These prices could prove to be a critical point.

Summary of the week:

Summary of message surface:  

1. 下次加息 25 个基点成为大概率事件，欧洲多国的加息步伐在不断褪去，少数地区的降息已初露端倪。

2. The peak in inflation is a positive start for risk assets.

3. 加密市场监管的呼声和落地在今年会络绎不绝，这是利好。

With the passage of time and the sound ecology, the Minister of Electronic Information of India, who once rejected cryptocurrency, began to speak out on the country's crypto business. As long as the law is followed, the crypto business is not prohibited, and the attitude of the whole country turned to be relatively friendly and neutral.

With most of the bad expectations fulfilled in 2022 and the thunder being removed from the market, overall concern is beginning to diminish and confidence is gradually increasing.

For the capital markets, the return of confidence will accelerate the market recovery, and vice versa.

No matter from the macro global capital market or micro crypto assets, in this year's scenario, the expectation of interest rate hike, interest rate cut, inflation decline, severe recession probability decline, all kinds of conditions superimposed, there will be a lot of opportunities.

Long-term insight on the chain:

1. 长期通胀率近期有所下降，市场承接能力也逐渐上升；

2. At present, the profit of the whole network is in the state of mid-2019, which is relatively awkward from the perspective of medium term.

3. 从目前长期的表现形式来看，中观抛压状态依然属于相对低位。

•市场定调：

At present, it is more suitable for both offensive and defensive long-term investment strategy.

Mid-chain probe:

1. 短期成本有轻微升高 

2. Trading sentiment is still rising in the channel, high weight selling pressure is low;

3. Exchange trend net position is biased towards slow accumulation;

4. Slow accumulation of illiquid supply;  

5. The overall stage accumulation situation in the floor has not appeared, and it still needs time;

6. 购买力仍偏存量，场内 BTC 和 ETH 的流入量大于 0，可能会有一定阻力。

•市场定调：

Slow accumulation

The current high weight selling pressure is not imposed on the market, the accumulation situation is not obvious, the market may slow down a bit.

•策略建议：

The rest of the month fixed positions extended time

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. 衍生品风险相对下降，但交易意图低迷；

2. The volume of derivatives trading decreases, and the large probability of betting determines the size of the future space;

3. Market sentiment remains good, while the short side is relatively weak;

4. The number of newly added addresses gradually exceeds the number of active addresses within a week.

5. The overall selling pressure in the market is not prominent at this stage;

6. Temporary loss of stablecoin due to increased global purchasing power;

7. The purchase intention of data under the chain has been moved up to 22300,22000 and 20900;

8. 其中短期内跌不破 18500～22500 的概率为 75 %。

•市场定调：

Market selling pressure is not big, short - term may be compared to before is relatively calm period.

Strategy suggestion:

Suitable for offensive and defensive neutral strategy.

Risk warning

The above are market discussion and exploration, and do not have directional opinions on investment; Please treat carefully and prevent the market black swan risk.  

This report is provided by "WTR" Research Institute: Golden Egg Diary; Elk don't get lost; Foreign exchange brother; Glutinous rice balls; Sibe; Kitkat

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