Arbitrum drop in volume, investors have what opportunities

原文标题：《 Arbitrum 空投内卷，投资者还有哪些机会》

Original article by Asher Zhang

Recent traditional financial market crisis, but the crypto market after panic, out of a small spring market. In addition to the bitcoin ecosystem, Arbitrum, one of the leading players in Ethereum Layer 2, recently announced the airdrop rules, and the market trading enthusiasm is high. Every big project airdrop creates a bunch of people. Did you get the airdrop? Future Arbitrum Token ARB valuation geometry? Arbitrum Ecology what projects are worth paying attention to? If you miss this airdrop, how do you seize the opportunity next time? This paper will discuss the above problems one by one.

Arbitrum airdrop rules, "fleece party" or difficult to easily wank to

Starting from 2020, "meitao" can be said to be a large scale wealth creation movement in the crypto market. Every big project coin airdrop will produce a wave of wealth creation effect. As more and more people join the wealth building movement, many projects are getting more sophisticated about the design of "meitao". So how does the epicycle Arbitrum air drop rule design? Do you think your drop will work?

可以说，Arbitrum 本轮的空投可以说对「羊毛党」并不友好，规则设计更看重生态参与者的参与度，并制定了防女巫策略。根据官方介绍，Offchain Labs、Arbitrum 基金会联合数据分析网站 Nansen 共同设计了一个 Token 分配模型，下图展示了本轮 Token 空投分配过程中的主要变量：

This distribution pattern relies on Nansen's on-chain data to assign qualifying points based on the wallet's on-chain history of activity. Wallet addresses must meet at least three points to qualify for airdrop. The following diagram shows what users do to earn positive points:

Combing through the various behavior data of the wallet addresses that meet the conditions, we can find that many need to meet the following conditions: the bridge to the wallet address of Arbitrum One, in two different months for more than ten transactions, and there is a non-zero balance in the airdrop snapshot; The bridge to the wallet address of Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova requires at least 25 transactions through Arbitrum One in two different months, on Arbitrum Nova, the wallet needs more than 10 transactions; A wallet address that wired assets worth more than $250,000 into Arbitrum One made more than 100 different transactions over nine different months, and on Arbitrum Nova, the same wallet initiated more than a dozen transactions.

从上面可以看出，其实 ARB 空投撸的难度很大，但是撸羊毛的大军也确实很庞大。目前来看，符合条件的钱包名单涵盖了 625, 143 个地址，统计周期为自 Arbitrum One 成立以来，截至 2023 年 2 月 6 日。另外，拥有社区金库并一直在推动 Arbitrum 生态系统向前发展的协议，也会被邀请参与为自己的社区分配部分 Token 。

关于 Arbitrum 的防女巫策略，Offchain Labs 也是煞费苦心。女巫地址通常很难与真实行为地址区分开来，但它们具有不同的目标，一种是真正的使用，另一种为了潜在的空投。Offchain Labs 研究人员通过在来自 Nansen Query 的 from_address / to_address 交易数据使用聚类算法，并在 Arbitrum 和 Ethereum 上整合跟踪和 Token 转移，致力于识别可能的女巫钱包。并且对可能误报的数据进行人工「检查」。有关女巫地址的具体信息，请参阅 Arbitrum Foundation Github。

Overall, Arbitrum epicycle rules strict design, for the "wool party" is not friendly, more will air to ecological participants; Further, many ARB drops are likely to be awarded to multi-frequency trading and whale users.

Future ARB valuation? Arbitrum ecology still has a chance

According to "Bitui" report, Binance has announced on March 20 that it will launch ARB, as the leading project on Layer 2, the future ARB valuation? In addition, what are the opportunities for Arbitrum ecology?

在加密市场，类比估值法是一种较为常见的 Token 估值法，因而在考虑 ARB 价格时，可以参考同为 Layer2 龙头的 OP 和 MATIC。推特大 V 熊 x 先生（@mz_crypto777）发推表示：Arbitrum 的上市价格预计将是 1.74 美元！1）初始流通量＝总量的 12.75%(12.75 亿 Token ），2）ARB 与 OP 、 MATIC 类似 的 FDV 是可以接受的。FDV / TVL 值按比例与 OP 和 MATIC 进行比较后，就可以估算出＄ ARB 的价格。（注：近期市场波动巨大，以上观点仅供参考）

从链上数据看，在 2 月份有两笔巨款存入 Arbitrum，这笔存款余额超过 4.5 亿美元，这大概率市场炒作资金入场。随着 ARB Token 上线，大概率会再吸引一批新增资金进入 Arbitrum 生态，Arbitrum 生态项目预计也将迎来一波炒作高潮。本文下面主要从链上数据维度介绍 Arbitrum 生态最值得关注的一些项目。

Arbitrum overwhelmingly lost 70 percent of its commission market share to GMX, according to DefiLlama, and Gains Network has captured 7 percent of its commission share since its launch in late December. Currently, Arbitrum's top 5 agreements in terms of fees occupy the following market shares:

ARB 生态还有哪些项目值得关注？推特大 V Superalloy.lens（@chrislee0033）3 月 20 日发推表示：RDNT 今天上 OK，ARB 上的头部项目都有可能跑出来，请列入重点关注。ARB 的 Token 分配，和 Op 一样有生态支持的份额，而且比例不小，有空多交互，等福报。

推特大 V Defi Mochi@defi_mochi 表示：从这张表中可以看出，从流通市值与 TVL 的比值来看，Arbitrum 上最好的蓝筹 DEX 应该是 Camelot，而 SolidLizard 风险较高。Camelot 的 Token 经济模型设计的很好，因为从规则上看，其 Token 的发行量与销毁量预计能做到 1:1。

Radiant 的 Token RDNT 和 Y2K Finance 都值得期待，这两个项目的数据见下表，此外 Y2K 在黑天鹅事件（如 Depegs 期间的强势表现证明了其能够成为一个有效投资组合中用于风险对冲的标的。另外，特别看好 PlutusDAO，因为它被定位为 Arbitrum 的治理聚合器，我认为 PlutusDAO 要将 plsRDNT 纳入其平台也将是一个利好事件，PlutusDAO 目前已经控制了 JONES-WETH 89% 的流动性，以及 52% 的 DPX Token 和 45% 的 SPA Token 。

How to further seize airdrops in the future

As we said at the beginning of this article, airspace investment is an important way to make money in crypto markets. Missed the ARB, so how to catch the next airdrop? Maybe following the smart money and watching what they do would be a good way to do it.

Lookonchain (@lookonchain) tweeted: We found 6 smart airdrop hunters who have secured almost all large-scale crypto airdrops, including: $ARB, $OP, $BLUR, $SOS, $LOOKS, $ENS, $DYDX, $1INCH, $UNI, $HOP, $FORTH, $GTC, etc. Keeping an eye on their deals might help you not miss the next drop. Its address is as follows:

Address: 0 x6f9bb7e454f5b3eb2310343f0e99269dc2bb8a1d

Address 2:0 x11b1785d9ac81480c03210e89f1508c8c115888e

Address 3:0 x70e7a6621f4cb3c3e073d0539899f49fc88424c0

Address 4:0 x78ebe56bc138069557c89af35eb29023ff31ae2c

Five: address 0 x000f4432a40560bbff1b581a8b7aded8dab80026

6: address 0 xd56ee5ba5a52e15f309108bdd6247c69b4f624c2

值得注意的是，散户和大户之间的交易成本存在很大差异，如果是龙头项目，这种时候 Token 价值确定性较高；但如果项目 Token 价值不高，频繁交易的成本也是非常巨大，散户交易整体还是要考虑清楚。伴随以太坊 Layer 2 龙头项目陆续发币，关注更多未发币的 Layer 2 龙头或是不错的选择，比如，zkSync、StarKNet 等。

summarize

整体上看，Arbitrum 本轮空投规则设计更加缜密，更加希望将空投 Token 空投给实际生态参与者和建设者。随着，ARB 上市预计新增资金会进一步涌入，Arbitrum 生态项目预计也会出现一波上涨。对比 OP 和 MATIC 等 Layer 2 龙头，ARB 合理估值预计在 1.74 美元附近。对于如何抓住空投机会，建议操作者能更多关注一些聪明的巨鲸地址，这样大概率能更好的「撸羊毛」。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article conform to their specific situation, and comply with the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region.

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