April Crypto narrative outlook: Shanghai Upgrade Track, Layer2, NFTFi, Hong Kong concept

Title: April Crypto Narrative Outlook: Shanghai Upgrade Track, Layer2, NFTFi, Hong Kong Concept

Sleeping in the rain

Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade

Ethereum upgrade has set the time, now the question is whether Ethereum pledge open cash withdrawal, will form a huge selling pressure in the secondary market. I try to analyze this problem from several angles: first, whether the pledgee is a long-termist; The second is whether the profit from selling is just needed.

The early entrant pledgers are long-termists and deterministic, pledging ETH is their long-term expectation of ETH value, and they will not take out their chips due to short-term events. In addition, a data shows that 60% (now ETH price rises, the data may change) are in the state of loss (compare the current ETH price with the price of each ETH when pledged); Depositors in the average maximum pledge pool are also currently in the red. The loss-making long-termist has a sell tendency and a Hold tendency, and in my personal opinion, the Hold tendency. Propensity to sell.

Those who then enter the Ethereum pledge circuit can often withdraw liquidity in advance through a pledge agreement such as Lido. Liquidity certificates such as stETH can help the mortgagee exit quickly. This occurs when the selling demand for cash has already risen in Ethereum. Investors with liquid certificates such as stETH sell at a profit, rather than after Ethereum has started to withdraw cash. Also of concern is stETH's dropping anchor, but statistically, there is no such trend.

Therefore, from my personal perspective, Ethereum may not see much selling pressure after the Shanghai upgrade. In addition, Ethereum has a queueing mechanism, and the daily selling pressure of Ethereum entering the market is fixed.

In addition, let's look at several LSD protocols:

LDO: LDO is the most relevant Token, the only uncertainty is that it delayed the v2 upgrade to mid-May, about a month later than the Shanghai upgrade time node, which may have caused some FUD. From a protocol point of view, this is good because Lido goes a lot of effort to ensure security. And for the currency price, it will cause short-term impact.

In addition to Lido, a few other trends that could emerge after the Shanghai upgrade on Ethereum are:

Decentralization of Ethereum Pledge: RPL, SSV, SD...

The rise of LSDFi (increase yield, increase capital efficiency) : YFI, AURA (soon to land Arbitrum), FRX...

(I'm writing about some of the agreements I'm looking at.)

Personal interest: SD, AURA (LDO and so on May be bought at some point in time)

ARB

ARB is the hot coin in the crypto market. I personally am very optimistic about ARB, also looking forward to its upgrade this year and Ethereum's new upgrade to Arbitrum ecosystem brought changes.

But it currently has some problems /FUD:

1) The Token that should be locked is moved;

2) The chips are scattered among retail investors, and there is no clear demand for ARB tokens. But judging from the fact that the AIP voted against more than yes, the FUD on point 1 is almost over. Let's take a final look at the results of the vote on April 4.

Interest correlation

The second floor of the Shibarium

BONE is a Token I've been holding on to, and I always thought it had a chance. Especially in the context of relatively good test network data, I am more optimistic about Shibarium Layer2 (although there was FUD before).

Interest correlation

Uniswap v3 code patent expires

My idea for the patent expiration of Uniswap v3 code is to see which DEX can take Uniswap v3 code to the next level, rather than simply Fork it.

PancakeSwap -- v3 is coming ashore on April 3. I think conspiraciously that the patent expiration was one of the important reasons Uniswap was deployed on the BNB chain.

TraderJoe - JOE has seen a small upsurge in the last few days and is doing the best thing at the best time. I also expect it to be able to open source the code in the future, and launch a wider range of products.

Gamma Strategies -- Gamma is a liquidity management protocol built on Uniswap v3, so when v3 code is open sourced, Gamma will have the opportunity to work with more DEX.

OKB Chain

The launch of OKB Chain is good for OKB itself. Secondly, you can pay a little attention to the Swap CherrySwap in the OKT Chain, and maybe migrate to the OKB Chain.

Interest correlation

OP

The vote on the Bedrock upgrade has been postponed until April 5. The Bedrock upgrade results in: 1) Theoretically optimal call data submission; 2) Separation of consensus and execution client; 3) Micro client differences (500 lines); 4) Fast peer-to-peer networks; 5) Deposit time is shorter (2.5 minutes); 6) Smarter synchronization, sorting, and state submission. The potential impact is on modularity support and support for the introduction of ZKP proofs.

After the upgrade is confirmed, the competitiveness of future OP ecology is also improved.

RNDR

The need for GPU computing power is the current mainstream narrative, and RNDR is the leader in decentralized GPU computing. However, despite seemingly sound fundamentals, the rise in the price of RNDR tokens needs to be driven by events. A possible near-term event comes from Apple, whose upcoming MR Release could be an opportunity.

Interest correlation

Hong Kong concept

CFX, COCOS and INJ, keep an eye out for events in Hong Kong in mid-April.

Interest correlation

Filecoin

Having mentioned the FEVM, I will focus on the ecological development of the FEVM and may write a separate outlook later.

Interest correlation

APE/BLUR

The NFT market may see some changes as a result of Yuga Labs' new moves. This new move may manifest itself in Koda's independence, which will have some catalyst for APE. Another boon to the NFT market is the potential for Blur's new moves, and it remains to be seen what kind of model List2Earn will be. It's worth remembering, though, that Blur officials understand the NFT market very well, and it's worth keeping an eye on what they do next.

GHST

The buyback has already begun. But the official April Fool's Day operation to show my face, draining market expectations and momentum.

Interest correlation

Kaspa

Kaspa is eating the dividends of Ethereum from Pow to Pos, and will be more of a story - as long as someone is willing to pay, it can go up. The story of Kaspa is fair allocation (decentralization) and GhostDAG (which combines "orphan" blocks into chains to form block dags, and then uses a novel greedy algorithm to sort the blocks in order to favor well-connected honest blocks quickly and with high probability. GhostDAG allows Kaspa to circumvent the traditional trade-offs of blockchain, increasing the block rate by several orders of magnitude while maintaining Bitcoin's theoretical security guarantees.) Simply put, Kaspa optimizes the schema of BTC.

I personally have no interest in buying right now (no interest) because it's a noisy time, but I can focus on the medium to long term. (In fact, the currency circle is very realistic, you can only go up, if you fall, you are relying on the defense.) Also, there are so many Zksync Era eco-agreements that we'll see a separate one later.

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