Week 16 On-chain Data Analysis: Market Reaches Key Nodes, Overall Market Sentiment Skews Neutral to Positive.

Original title: "Mountains and Rivers in Different Lands, Same Sky and Moon | WTR 4.10"

Original source: "WTR" Research Institute

This Week Review

From April 4th to April 10th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $28800, and the lowest was close to $27650, with a fluctuation range of about 4.1%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of chips traded around $28143, which will provide certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

1. $23000 ~ $29500 is approximately 1.81 million coins.

2. $18500~$22500 is approximately 2.42 million coins; the probability of it not falling below 18000 ~ 22000 in the short term is 72%.

Important News

Economic News

1. In February, the JOLTs job openings in the United States were 9.931 million, lower than the expected 10.4 million and lower than the previous value of 10.824 million.

    a. JOLTs job vacancies have reached their lowest level since May 2021, indicating a cooling job market.

2. In March, the ADP employment report in the United States showed an increase of 145,000 jobs, which was lower than the expected 200,000 and lower than the previous value of 242,000.

3. In March, the non-farm employment in the United States increased by 236,000, which was lower than the expected 239,000 and lower than the previous value of 311,000.

    a. Non-farm employment fell short of expectations, but it was the smallest increase since December 2020.

4. US March Markit Services PMI final value is 52.6, lower than expected 53.8 and lower than the previous value of 53.8.

5. US factory orders fell 0.7% month-on-month in February, below expectations.

6. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March in the United States was 46.3, with an expected value of 47.5 and a previous value of 47.7. This is the lowest level since May 2020.

    a. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for March was 51.2, lower than the expected 54.5 and lower than the previous value of 55.1.

7. US construction spending in February fell 0.1% month-on-month, with an estimated 0% decrease. Residential investment has contracted for seven consecutive quarters.

8. The US unemployment rate in March was 3.5%, lower than the expected 3.6% and lower than the previous value of 3.6%.

    a. The reason for the decrease in unemployment rate is the increase in labor participation rate.

9. The average hourly wage annual rate is 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.3%, and significantly lower than the previous value of 4.6%.

    a. Slowing wage growth is what the Federal Reserve wants to see.

10. This week, gold fluctuated upwards and rose to a one-year high before falling back down.

Encryption Ecology News

1. BlackRock's Global Macro Chief: The end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy may benefit Bitcoin and gold.

2. MicroStrategy announced that it will once again purchase 1,045 bitcoins at an average price of $28,016, totaling $29.3 million. As of April 4th, they already hold 140,000 bitcoins with an average purchase price of $29,803, equivalent to $4.17 billion.

3. Cash App founder Bob Lee was stabbed to death in San Francisco.

4. The US Treasury Department released the world's first DeFi illegal financial risk assessment this week.

5. Switzerland's fifth largest retail financial institution, PostFinance, provides channels for its 2.5 million customers to purchase, store, and sell cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and will add more cryptocurrencies at the appropriate time.

6. 21Shares collaborates with CoinGecko to release the Global Cryptoasset Classification Standard (GCCS).

7. Bybit establishes its core business in Asia in Hong Kong and plans to apply for a local license.

8. CoinDesk: Since 2017, someone has been hiding the Bitcoin white paper in every MacOS.

9. Ant Blockchain and other companies have been selected for the National Financial Technology Certification Center's MPC certification.

10. China Taiping Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited has partnered with Shuidi Capital to launch two digital asset funds.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

：

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

Overall spot selling pressure

High-quality casting and pressing

Long-term investor gains and losses.Long-term investor position structure.

Trampled emotions

(Overall spot selling pressure as shown in the figure below)

Long-term, the market is facing a critical moment. Generally speaking, when the market is hit to this extent, there are two possible outcomes:

1. Direct decline, unable to withstand pressure.

2. Minor fluctuations, digesting pressure.

At different times, the performance is also different; at the same time, it can also be used to infer different periods based on different market performances. Currently, it is a key point to identify the long-term rhythm of the market.

(High-quality casting and pressing in the following figure)

More detailed and high-quality dumping will be more prominent. The impact of high-quality dumping is huge when the market is relatively fragile. However, it can also be used as a pressure testing data indicator, and at the same time, right-side strategies can be implemented when high-quality dumping falls.

(Long-term investor profit and loss as shown below)

Long-term investors have made significant profits in recent times. Confidence in long-term investment has also relatively recovered.

(Long-term investor position structure in the following chart)

However, from the on-chain position structure, the positions of long-term investors are wavering, and even to some extent, selling. In the market, they have just suspended their previous buying plans and even liquidated some currencies. But the overall on-chain position structure is still relatively intact.

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From another perspective, by observing the state of the real money and silver of the losers, we can gain insight into the market situation. Currently, the market sentiment is relatively good, which may trigger particularly large downside risk fluctuations.

At present, the industry is approaching a turning point, and the market is in a state of hesitation and indecision.

Mid-term exploration

The positivity of online emotions

Accumulation coefficient

The heat status of derivatives.

ETH active address growth status

Long and short-term chip distribution.

积累趋势分

The content is:

积累趋势分

On-chain basic dynamic rating: slow growth followed by slowing down, returning to accumulation state.

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After a certain degree of growth, the positivity of online emotions has maintained a certain degree of slowing pace. However, from the current situation, there is a slow growth trend in the overall active emotions compared to the low position, and further observation is still needed.

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The accumulation coefficient of the medium and long-term group has resumed growth after a period of confusion. This may be due to a slight relaxation of the market's rational state, and the continued growth may be the basis for subsequent efforts. If we only look at the accumulation coefficient of the medium and long-term group, the medium and long-term fundamentals may have returned to a considerable state. However, the injection of short-term funds is still lacking.

ETH Shanghai Upgrade Event-Driven Rating: Derivatives have a high proportion, but ETH address activity is relatively low

(The popularity of derivative products in the following figure)

Blue line: the proportion of futures contracts with a fixed expiration date to the true market value, green area: the proportion of perpetual futures contracts to the true market value

This week's derivatives heat is used to observe the short-term frenzy caused by events in the market. Currently, the derivatives heat is close to the level before the hype of ETH2.0 in the second half of 2022. A higher proportion of derivatives in the market value may indicate basic market heat, and there has been a high level of betting on ETH before the Shanghai upgrade event, which may bring significant volatility.

(The growth of active ETH addresses in the following figure)

However, the activity level of various ETH addresses is relatively weak, which is significantly different from the situation before ETH2.0. The argument about ETH selling pressure may still be under continuous discussion, but from the perspective of basic market activity, it may be difficult to make a judgment currently. However, based on past situations, the current event-driven situation may not have attracted widespread attention in the market, perhaps related to the slightly sluggish market conditions at present.

群体状态评级：附近盘踞较多短期筹码；群体积累状况略带减弱

Group status rating: There are more short-term chips lurking nearby; the group's accumulation status is slightly weakening.

(Distribution of long and short-term chips in the following figure)

Currently, the preliminary "profit-taking" pressure test may have been completed. There is a significant amount of currency remaining on the exchange at the upper price level. If a certain amount of profit-taking pressure is released, the remaining profit-taking pressure may continue to shrink.

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The various address statuses in the field have accumulated at a slow pace recently, which may correspond to the weakness of the phased accumulation status. However, the medium and long-term groups are slowly recovering their accumulation in the field, which may result in a weak hidden turnover of short-term liquidity in the near future.

Short-term Observation

The translation of the given content is: "Derivative risk coefficient."The translation of the given Chinese text is: "Option intention transaction ratio."The content you provided is:

Derivatives trading volume.Options Implied Volatility.

Profit and loss transfer amount

New address and active address

The net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange.The net position of Auntie Tai Exchange.

High weight throw pressure.Global purchasing power status.Stablecoin exchange net position.Off-chain exchange data.

Derivative Rating: Neutral with low risk.

(Derivative Risk Coefficient in the following figure)

Last week, the price of Da Bing had limited fluctuations and the risk factor was oscillating in the neutral zone. Currently, it is at the upper edge of the neutral zone. This indicates that the current derivative market has low risk and less pressure for long liquidation.

(Option Intention Transaction Ratio in the following figure)

The trading volume of options has slightly decreased, and the proportion of put options has slightly increased. Currently, the proportion of put options is still at a relatively high level.

(Derivative Trading Volume in the following figure)

The market has been maintaining a level of volatility for some time, while the overall trading volume of derivatives has shown a downward trend. Currently, the trading volume of derivatives has fallen to a low level, which also indicates that a significant market fluctuation is not far away.

(Option Implied Volatility in the following figure)

The overall implied volatility of options has decreased, reflecting a decrease in the activity and willingness of option traders in the current market. However, it is worth noting that short-term traders may still have a higher willingness to take risks.

Emotional state rating: Neutral with a slight bias towards positive.

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount in the following figure)

The overall market sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish. Both greed and panic emotions are at low levels. The transfer volume of profits and losses has returned to a downward trend after a brief and small increase.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

(New addresses and active addresses)

Although the current market is in a state of turbulence, and there has been a certain decrease in the number of new and active addresses, the overall quantity remains high, indicating a high level of market activity. Spot and selling pressure structure rating: a small amount of outflow accumulation, indicating relatively low selling pressure in the market.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

At the current price level, the net position of the Ice Sugar Orange Exchange is in a state of small outflow accumulation, indicating that the selling pressure in the spot market is relatively small.

(Net Position of E-Tower Exchange as shown in the figure below)

E-Tai Futures' net position is consistent with that of Bingtang Orange and is in a state of small outflow accumulation. Last week, there was a small amount of chip inflow, which brought some selling pressure to the market. Currently, this selling pressure has been absorbed by the market.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the following figure)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Looking at the net position of the exchange, the small amount of high-weight selling pressure that appeared in E last week was due to some old coins being sold off in the exchange.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power continues to strengthen, and stablecoin purchasing power shows signs of returning.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

The purchasing power of Asia, Europe, and America are all positive, and the purchasing power of the three continents has continued to strengthen compared to last week. The most significant increase in purchasing power is in Asia, followed by Europe and America.

(Net Position of USDC Exchange as shown below)

USDC is still in an outflow state, but the cumulative outflow has slowed down, and there were signs of a small inflow last week.

(Net Position of USDT Exchange as shown below)

USDT has seen a small amount of inflow. The return of purchasing power for stablecoins is a relatively positive signal. Off-chain transaction data rating: there is a willingness to sell at the price of 28700, and a willingness to buy at the price of 28000.

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to sell at the price of 28700.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to sell at the price levels of 28500, 28600, and 28700; there is a willingness to buy at the price levels of 27900 and 28000.

(Bitfinex Off-Chain Data as shown below)

28580 has a willingness to sell; 28330 has a willingness to buy.

This Week's Summary:

Summary of News:

1. This week, both JOLTS job openings and ADP employment numbers fell short of expectations. The decline in non-farm payrolls and the drop in unemployment rate are both good and bad news, and it is too early to determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May.

2. Real estate has entered a downturn, and banks are adopting stricter loan standards, with credit being more restricted and the risk of recession increasing. The Federal Reserve will re-evaluate its interest rate strategy to avoid a deep economic recession.

3. After the release of this week's data, the probability of a rate hike next month has increased to 75%. By the end of December, the expected interest rate is 4.33%.

4. Pay attention to the upcoming CPI, with an expected value of 5.2% and a previous value of 6.0%. The expected decrease is significant.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. In the long run, we are facing a critical moment driven by market selling pressure.

2. The market volatility in the near future is significant.

3. High-quality dumping also faces tests, and long-term participants begin to profit;

4. Long-term participants' on-chain holdings structure is in a state of hesitation and hesitation;

5. The overall market sentiment is positive, and there may be relatively low risks of large-scale downturns.

Market positioning:

Market reaches a critical point, whether it needs time to digest or will experience a significant decline, deserves close attention.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

The online sentiment is gradually recovering and there is currently no significant decline.

The mid- to long-term group is recovering and accumulating, but short-term funding is still lacking.

There has been a significant increase in futures trading on the eve of event-driven activities.

可能场内初步消化了抛售压力；

The selling pressure may have been initially absorbed within the market.

The accumulation status of various addresses has weakened, and turnover may occur more discreetly.

Market positioning:

Medium to long-term fundamentals are slowly recovering.

The event of ETH Shanghai upgrade is coming soon. The on-site medium and long-term group has resumed the accumulation state, but the accumulation state of more subtle addresses is weakening, and there may be a certain degree of volatility in the near future, which may be due to more hidden turnover.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk coefficient of derivatives is in the neutral zone, and the risk of derivatives is relatively low;

2. The trading volume of derivatives is low; derivative traders are hesitant to take action.

3. The overall market sentiment is neutral to bullish.

4. Exchange data shows a slight outflow of chips and a small selling pressure accumulation.

5. The global purchasing power continues to strengthen, and the purchasing power of stablecoins shows signs of returning.

6. Under-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the 28000 price level and a willingness to sell at the 28700 price level.

7. The probability of not breaking 18,000 to 22,000 in the short term is 72%.

Market positioning:

The overall sentiment of the market is neutral to slightly bullish and in a relatively stable state. Market demand and support still exist, but also face significant risks of volatility.

Strategy recommendation: Maintain a certain long position or hedge against market turning risk.

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