Glassnode: After Shanghai upgrade, how much selling pressure will unlocked ETH bring?

原文标题：《 上海升级完成，解锁的 ETH 会带来多大抛压？ 》

Source: Glassnode

原文编译： Katie, Odaily 星球日报

The highly anticipated Shanghai/Capella  The hard fork is scheduled to take place this morning. ETH can be extracted.

From the standpoint of the pledge, this paper evaluates the potential selling pressure that may arise from the understanding lock, and discusses the potential selling pressure in   Shanghai  Pledges that may be withdrawn and sold immediately after the upgrade. ETH  The estimated quantity of After studying the different pledge groups and their sale unlock. ETH  After the motivation,We estimate that in Shanghai  A total of the upgrades will be sold. 17  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH.

From the depositor's point of view. ETH, and dividing it into different categories, we identified the groups most likely to generate seller pressure. It is expected that a major portion of the unlocked pledge rewards will come from redeploying users to liquid pledge providers, which are highly unlikely to sell due to loss on sale. At the moment, it is only. 253  The number of depositors waiting to exit their pledge is very small. Most of them are either individual pledgers or individual pledgers. Beacon Chain  An early pledgee. We believe they are most likely to be highly convinced and the withdrawal is most likely related to a change in their technical setup rather than exiting their positions.

We expect that of the total cumulative rewards, only % nbsp; 10  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH (1.9  $100 million) will be withdrawn and sold. Also, we expect twice as many verifiers to drop out, but only every dayRelease limited pledges. We believe only a small fraction of them. 7  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH (1.33  $100 million) would be truly liquid.

The economic impact will be felt for days to weeks. Based on our analysis, the impact on the Ethereum economy is expected to be much smaller than many have predicted. Arguably, upgraded technology delivery is more likely to support a growing pledge industry that seeks to better serve Ethereum holders over the long term.

Shanghai  upgrade

The highly anticipated Shanghai/Capella  A hard fork is planned. 2023  Year   4  Month   12  Day begins and will allow Ethereum new   PoS  Consensus Mechanism   ETH  The funds were withdrawn. The earliest deposits are made at 2020  Year   11  Month, in   Beacon Chain  Pre-launch, and so far, the pledgers haven't been able to get their hands on what they pledged. ETH  Or accumulated rewards.

Some of the pledges themselves. Beacon Chain  Has been active, and its rewards have been accumulating for more than two years, accompanying the market through a full bull/bear cycle. This has led to speculation about the potential market, with roughly 1800  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH (339.2  Hundreds of millions of dollars. ETH  Total circulation supply   15% ) Has been unlocked, and supplies have been affected. People are worried if these unlocked will flood the market and temporarily give up. ETH  Cause huge seller pressure.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate. ETH  To develop a group framework of pledge, and evaluate. Shanghai  The potential impact of hard forks. We ran several simulations to answer the following questions:

1. Who is most likely to extract the pledge? ETH?

2. Pledges expected to be drawn   ETH  What is the quantity of

3. How much pressure do we expect these withdrawals to put on sellers?

Ethereum pledge pattern

To get a full picture of the current pledge landscape, we'll provide a brief technical overview of the existing players in Ethereum's Proof of Pledge (PoS) consensus mechanism:

Depositors are private individuals or send to Ethereum smart contracts. 32  nbsp; ETH  To activate the verifier's entity. A depositor may have more than one verifier as collateral. 32  nbsp; ETH.

The verifier is located in   Beacon Chain  Virtual entities on Ethereum, providing services for Ethereum's consensus layer. They can be treated as private keys and balances, and both are recorded on the consensus layer. The verifier is pseudo-randomly selected to verify and vouch for the validity of the transaction and the information contained in the block. Sometimes they are assigned to make proposals for blocks into which these deals are bundled. When the job is done, the verifier is paid. ETH  Pledge rewards, which are divided into consensus layer block rewards and execution layer fee rewards for processing transactions (only priority fees flow to the verifier, while base fees are burned).

A node is the physical hardware that runs the verifier software. Each node can accommodate many validators. The node can be operated by the depositor himself or entrusted to a third-party pledge service provider.

Depositors are the main players

A great deal of research has been done on Ethereum's pledge economy, much of it focusing on the verifier as a major player in the pledge economy. For our analysis, we think it makes more sense to focus on the depositor, who can have multiple validators and who ultimately makes decisions about the withdrawal and use of funds at the depositor level.

In order to understand. Shanghai/Capella upgrade, we will be based on   ETH  The expected demand and the pledge or non-pledge motivation divide depositors into different groups. Below is the breakdown we chose, taking into account four main factors:

1. Participation time of depositors: the active time of the pledge.

2. Size of depositors: the number of validators owned.

3. Profitability of depositors: unrealized profit/loss among owned verifiers.

4. Organization: Divided into individuals (individual pledgees) or third-party pledge providers.

Please note: We understand that individuals or entities may deploy pledges to the network using different depositor's wallet addresses. This often happens to providers of pledge services. Therefore, we isolated the depositor addresses belonging to these providers from the data set and analyzed them separately. This is in case the prediction signals we try to get from the following analysis are wrong.

Private pledge and institutional pledge

In sorting out the pledge landscape, it is important to distinguish between private pledge providers, who have their own technical setup, and institutional/pledge provider depositors. In the chart below, we exclude pledge providers because many of these entities use one-time addresses for deposits, which skews the real data.

Based on the number of daily deposits, we can distinguish the wallet addresses of one-time depositors from those of multiple deposits. We can see that one-time depositors are mainly active in major events, such as   Beacon Chain  The beginning and merging, and the present pair. Shanghai  Expectations of upgrades indicate that they are biased towards the system's confidence. Executive-level events such as   Terra  The crash and its aftermath did not affect storage conditions.

We also note that the pledge pool consists mainly of depositors who have made multiple bets and therefore hold multiple validators. We can see that some of these regular depositors are getting more than that every day. 1000  A deposit. It is interesting to note that in the 2021  In the bull market, Beacon Chain  There has been a relative lull in these new deposits.

Pledge provider

Pledge providers are larger entities that allow users to transfer their ETH  The validator node delegated to the provider. By combining   ETH  By delegating to these nodes, users can earn rewards for supporting the network without having to run their own verifier nodes or provide full. 32  nbsp; ETH.

Over the past two years, liquidity pledge providers have gained significant market share by returning tradable token derivatives to their users. At present, Lido  Is the market leader, occupy the entire network pledge. 30%  Above market share. Coinbase, Kraken  And   Binance  Equal-centralized exchanges followed, with market shares of   11.5% & have spent ,   7.0% & have spent And   5.4% & have spent .

Looking closely at the number of deposits by each pledge provider over time, we can clearly see the shift in dominance:

In   Beacon Chain  For the first six months of life, Binance is the main depositor. However, they were eventually killed. Coinbase  And   Lido  Go beyond.

Lido  The dominant position in the 2021  It expanded substantially in the second half of 2005, however. stETH  Token in   LUNA-UST  Crash and crash Three Arrows Capital  And   Celsius  The bankruptcy period was under market pressure. This was due to the fact that these entities had a considerable correlation or position in the token at the time.

Therefore, all pledge supplier deposit activities, especially   Lido, in   2022  It fell sharply in the middle of the year and slowly "recovered" by the end of the year. In addition, we have observed a massive shrinkage in pledge activity on centralised exchanges as a result of increasing pressure on these institutions from US regulators. Kraken  After being fined by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 2023  Year   2  Ended its pledge service in the United States last month. Coinbase  In   2023  Year   3  The month received a notice that its pledge service violated the anti-securities law.

Depositor participation time

Depositor participation time The average time of depositor participation in the pledge economy is calculated using the deployment date of the verifier. This includes one-time and recurring depositors, but again excludes pledge providers.

Then, we divide depositors into five sets of data bars (bin), reflecting. Beacon Chain  A quarter of the life span. Month for a group), and a data bar is a representative. Beacon Chain  Pre-start-up depositors. To our surprise, we detected a group that was relatively large. 2.5 & have spent Ten thousand depositors, whose average deposit time predates the launch of Ethereum's consensus layer. We classified these depositors as investors with a high belief in Ethereum because of the risk of deploying a verifier at the time. We even believe that these depositors see the verifiers not as an investment, but as members within Ethereum, or community members, who are motivated to ensure the security of the network rather than generate profits.

In addition, we can see that most savers keep their money at the same time. 6  Months to 1  Between years. This is an indication of the growing confidence in Ethereum's pledge economy over the past year, especially following the successful execution of mergers and the recent initiation of coin withdrawals.

Depositor size

The next step is to examine the size of individual depositors, again excluding pledge providers from our data set. Unlike the graph above, which counts individual deposit events, here we count the total number of verifiers accumulated over time by the depositor's wallet address. We then categorize these into different size bars.

It is worth noting that in   Six months after the Beacon chain was launched, the pledge pool was held by depositors and owned by only one verifier (shrimp: holding relative to the whale less users). 500  The depositor of multiple verifiers (whales). In the last bull market, the number of one-time savers was relatively high. However, in   2022  During the market turmoil of 2005, the number of one-off depositors fell sharply as new individual pledges balked at entering the pool.

Have a possession of 2  To   500  The "crab" and "fish" entities (those with fewer holdings than whales) of one verifier are surprisingly small, accounting for only a fraction of the total. 13.5% & have spent .

Depositor profitability

To assess the profitability of the depositor, we calculate the realized price of the pledge, which is the value at the time of the deposit. ETH  Value compared to the current spot price. This provides a measure of the average unrealized profit/loss held by each depositor.

At present, all pledges. ETH  The average deposit price is   2136  Usd, which indicates an average unrealized loss of -13% at the current spot price. . By contrast, the Ethereum network has an implementation price. 1403  In dollars, unrealized profit was. 36%  The price captures the whole thing. ETH  The average price at which the supply was last moved up the chain.

After examining the realized prices of each pledge provider, we observed that. Coinbase  And   Lido  The average cost basis is approximately higher than current. ETH  Spot prices are higher. 50%  . Binamand  Kraken  There was major deposit activity at the beginning of the bull market, which is currently at   1,  812  Dollar   1,  900  The approximate break-even level between the U.S. dollar.

Coinbase  And   Lido  The high realized price is an interesting dynamic because both are pledged for it. ETH  By providing a liquid collateral derivative that allows holders to sell, or better hedge their risk, depositors have the potential to achieve a better realized price in the secondary market.

If at the time of deposit   ETH  The price of the pledge was lower than it is today. ETH  Price, we think the stake is at a loss. Sure enough, it was. 2021  Mid-year and   2022  Deposited at the peak of the bull market in the mid-2000s. ETH  Supply is held at unrealized losses. Up to half of the total amount pledged is now in the red. Shanghai  The potential exit after the upgrade provides the signal.

Utilization   ETH  Spot price and   ETH  For the difference between the realized prices of deposits, we derive the total dollar value of unrealized profits or losses held by depositors. Combined with our division of depositor size, we can begin to categorize by unrealized profits or losses between depositor types. In   2022  Year   7  The peak of unrealized loss in month is   160  $100 million later, net unrealized losses are now. 47  A hundred million dollars. It is largely borne by whale depositors, who account for unrealized losses. 76%  Share of.

Simulation   Shanghai  The withdrawal situation after the upgrade

Next, we will estimate. Shanghai  Pledges that may be drawn immediately after the upgrade. ETH  The number of

While depositors are unable to withdraw their pledged funds, they can still sign a voluntary exit message indicating that they wish to exit the pledge pool. At present there is   1229  A verifier waits to exit, and   214  A "cut off" verifier will be forced to quit once withdrawal is enabled (total   46176  nbsp; ETH,   8570  Ten thousand dollars).

Shanghai  The upgrade allows two types of withdrawal: partial withdrawal and full withdrawal. Partial withdrawal (commonly known as   skimming), automatically extracts each verifier's cumulative pledge award, reducing its verifier balance to &nbming; 32  nbsp; ETH. A full withdrawal involves completely exiting the verifier and getting back the full pledged balance.

The verifier performs the same automatic withdrawal process for partial withdrawal and full withdrawal. Automatically scan the entire verifier set from the index   0  Start a linear scan. If a verifier does not sign a voluntary opt-out message or is axed, too many. ETH  The balance is extracted and automatically sent to the execution level. If the verifier has signed a voluntary opt-out and passed the waiting period, the opt-out is successful. Each slot   12  Seconds, total scanning and processing   16  A verifier. Given the current number of validators, this process will require at most. 4.5 & have spent God.

However, the process of scanning the entire validator is complicated by the fact that the number of validators for the withdrawal certificate must be updated. The withdrawal certificate defines the withdrawal. ETH  Where it was sent to. In   PoS  In the early days, the verifier uses   0  x  00  Credential deployment. In order to participate in automated processing, these validators need to update their credentials to   0  x  01  Type. At present, there are about. 30  Verifiers need to update their withdrawal certificates, which are available only in Shanghai/Capella  This is only possible after the upgrade. We recalculated the duration of the automated process,According to   Shanghai  The actual number of validators who are qualified to withdraw partial coins after the upgrade, the longest is   2  God.

A prediction of partial withdrawals

Shanghai  Upgrades are a special case, with rewards built up over two years and unlocked once. At present, there is no active participation. PoS  Is about   113.7 & have spent Ten thousand nbsp; ETH, the value is about   21  A hundred million dollars. In   Shanghai  After upgrading, the amount will be automatically deducted from   Beacon Chain  And transferred to the depositor's Ethereum main network address as an automatic balance update.

As mentioned above, only have. 0  x  01  The validator of the withdrawal certificate will participate in the automatic withdrawal process. At present, about   44%  The verifier has the correct withdrawal certificate. However, there are still many validators who need to update their withdrawal certificates, many of which are in Beacon Chain  Early deployment, and thus accumulated a large number of pledge incentives. Data Always  After analyzing this in detail, we reproduced the chart below to show how the number of validators for these two sets of credentials has evolved.

Data source: Data Always

According to the proportions determined in the analysis, have   0x00  The verifier of the voucher has close to the total cumulative reward amount. 75%  . Therefore, have. 0x01  The validator of the credential gets the rest. 25%  That's equivalent to extracting in two days. 276  k ETH.

In an extreme case, all remaining verifiers in the   Shanghai  Upgrade after updating their withdrawal certificates, which will be available to each block. 16  The speed of each verifier,We'll finally see the whole thing. 113.7 & have spent Ten thousand nbsp; ETH  In   4.5 & have spent All out within days. Beacon Chain.

The figure below shows the minimum and maximum amounts paid for rewards, including the maximum daily   unlocked in each case; ETH  The amount. The actual number is probably somewhere between these extremes. We think many savers are likely to wait. Shanghai  They can only unlock their accumulated rewards after successful implementation, and then upgrade their withdrawal certificates, so we use the 50%  Withdrawal is the benchmark. We expect the actual number of unlocked cumulative rewards to be much closer. 706  k ETH (13.1  $100 million).

To estimate how much of the accumulated rewards will be sold, we break it down according to the savers breakdown above. As a result of Lido  Has taken a significant share of cumulative awards and has pledged to repledge major bonuses,We believe other pledge providers will follow suit, which will result in a significant portion of the pledge incentive being locked in again.

We can also rule out high seller pressure from the rest of the group.According to the depositor size chart, about   75%  Non-institutional depositors are the largest, with more than 500  A verifier or   16000 + ETH  The balance of the pledge. Savers with that kind of financial strength are unlikely to feel selling pressure, even if their validators lose almost nothing. Given the positive market trends of the past week, this group of savers is more likely to choose to repledge or reinvest the rewards they have accumulated and wait for the next bull market.

This leaves us with a range of possibilities, i.e. 76  k ETH (1.41  $100 million) and possibly as high as that. 162  k ETH (3  Billion dollars), is a measure of Shanghai  After upgrading part of the potential seller pressure.

Prediction of full withdrawal

Looking at full withdrawals, it is important to note that only a limited number of validators can exit each day. Since the security of the Ethereum network depends on a stable set of verifiers, there are mechanisms in place to prevent large fluctuations in verifiers, as well as rapid depletion of pledges. This daily amount is defined by volatility, which determines the number of validators allowed in and the number of validators allowed out. The volatility limit itself is related to the number of active verifiers in the pledge pool.

At present each   epoch fluctuation limit is   8 verifiers per day   225  D  epoch, at most 800  per day; A verifier exits, equivalent to   57.6 & have spent k ETH. From our historical data, we can see how volatility limits work with new entrant validators.

In addition to the exit period determined by volatility limits, the verifier must pass an exit capability delay. For verifiers who voluntarily quit, this waiting period is. 256  D  epoch, or about   27  Hours. For the verifier to be axed, yes. 8192  D  epoch, or about   36  God. Then, again, we add the time of the automatic withdrawal process, as described above.

Taking into account our data on drop-outs and axed verifiers, and different waiting periods, we modeled the results in Shanghai  Accessible after upgrade   ETH  The cumulative quantity of After three large increases in the number of verifiers signing opt-outs (one in   2022  Year   9  Month after the merger, and another one this year), we currently see a cumulative total of. 45,  098 pieces   ETH (equivalent to   8330  $10,000) will be made available to the pledgee.

As noted above, the pledge exit process will take two days for the total amount to be withdrawn. Beacon Chain, which means we will be in 4  Month   12  Sun solstice   4  Month   14  See at least nbsp; 45,  098  nbsp; ETH (8330  $10,000) quit Beacon Chain.

Looking back at our depositor breakdown table, we can now identify the composition of depositors who are likely to start withdrawing in full. We see that the verifiers that have quit belong to   altogether; 253  A depositor.It is worth noting that very few pledge providers have withdrawn their verifiers. So far, of the biggest pledge providers, only. Coinbase  Announced that it would allow the use of the Shanghai  Withdraw money immediately after upgrading. It is said that Lido  In   5  Coin withdrawal will be enabled only in month. And   Binance  No date has been announced.

In addition, we see that the depositors who exit are mainly those who have only one verifier and those who are in the pre-launch phase or   The first quarter of the Beacon chain cycle deploys its pledged depositors. This time frame coincides with the start of a bull market, which is why we are seeing large numbers of exiting savers holding unrealized losses.

We generally expect little price pressure from this group of savers. The pledge environment has changed dramatically since the pledge, and these early solo pledges may be inclined to drop out and redeploy with a new pledge provider setup to reduce the risk and overhead associated with maintaining a pledge setup. They may also want to benefit from new or liquid collateral derivatives (LSD), allowing them to keep their money. ETH  Liquidity and regard it as DeFi  , while still receiving Ethereum pledge rewards.

At the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Kraken  The U.S. pledge service filed a challenge after the complaint. A large number of validators are expected to be shut down. Another potential big exit could come from. Celsius Network, as it will reportedly sell its pledge. ETH  As part of the bankruptcy process, although the two institutions are unlikely to exit immediately after the upgrade.

Even in   Shanghai  Before the upgrade. 27  In the extreme case of a sudden increase in voluntary withdrawal in hours, we would still see only a limited increase in pledges, which would actually become liquid due to the fluctuation limit ceiling. We expect to be in. Shanghai  There will be at most nbsp on upgrade day. 57,  600  nbsp; ETH (1.094  $100 million) was unlocked. If the demand for exits remains high, we'll see the same number per day. ETH  Unlocked until the fluctuation limit is realigned.

In this context, a withdrawal of this amount would result in an appearance similar to   PoW  Early dynamics, when miners' incomes oscillated in this range (albeit at ETH  The price is lower than 1  With the U.S. dollar).

Predict the impact on aggregate supply

Considering partial withdrawal and full withdrawal, we can simulate. Shanghai  Potential supply pressure in the first week after the upgrade. We have three scenarios where the pledge is unlocked and sold:

Case   1  : In the most extreme case, the total amount of accumulated rewards and the maximum amount of pledges allowed each week will be withdrawn and sold, and we can see that the total is. 154  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH (29.3  $100 million) into liquid assets.

Case   2  In the present situation, only. 00x0  The voucher was pledged reward,   45  k ETH  Will be withdrawn and sold in the first week will see about. 312  k  nbsp; ETH (5.92  $100 million) into liquid assets.

Case   3  : We are based on   50%  An update on withdrawal certificates, our best estimates of the breakdown of depositors and assumptions about investor confidence and profitability. At the same time, it is believed that the number of authenticators who quit will be in. Shanghai  Double before and after upgrade, we estimate total. 17  V  ETH (3.23  $100 million) to be sold.

To be more specific, we can compare this to the typical weekly exchange inflows, using the FTX  Examples like crashes to gauge potential scale. We can see even the most extreme cases. 153  Ten thousand nbsp; ETH  Is still within the range of average weekly inflows on the exchange. In other words, in the most extreme case, average weekly exchange inflows would double, which would be on the scale of a recent market correction, and prices would fall. 8.7% & have spent , but will still be far below. FTX  The size of the inflows during the crash, when prices fell separately. 30.2% & have spent .

Shanghai  Upgrades have been widespread, and according to this analysis, the scale of unlock events is relative to ETH  Markets are similar in their daily dealings, so they are unlikely to be as scary as many suspect.

summarize

Although it is impossible to predict completely. Shanghai  Upgrade results, but the analysis in this article attempts to ease market anxiety about the economic impact of the supply unlocking event.

Even in extreme cases where the maximum amount of incentives and pledges were withdrawn and sold, seller volumes remained within the range of average weekly foreign exchange inflows. Therefore, we conclude that even in the most extreme cases, escalation pairs. ETH  The impact of the price is also within the acceptable range of users.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data are for reference only. No investment decision should be based on the information provided here, DYOR.

Source of original text

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