On-chain data for the 20th week: The overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish, with a certain pullback pressure

Original source: Dongfeng curls up, fragrant mist is empty｜WTR 5.08

Original source: "WTR" Research Institute

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Review of this week

From May 2nd to May 8th this week, Bingtang Orange’s highest was around $29820, and the lowest was close to $27577, fluctuating The range reached about 7.52%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips are traded around 28143, and there will be certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

About 2.87 million pieces from $25000 to $31000;

About 2.58 million pieces from $18500 to $24500;< /p>

The probability of not falling below 26500 ~ 22000 in the short term is 70%.

Important news In terms of

Economic news

1. The latest U.S. inflation indicator CPI was announced on Wednesday. Both the value and the expected value are 5%, the previous value of the core CPI is 5.6%, and the expected value is 5.4%.

2. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The minutes of the meeting deleted the wording of further interest rate hikes. Powell said that the end is getting closer , perhaps to suspend rate hikes.

3. The U.S. unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment in April both exceeded expectations, and interest rate cut expectations are heating up.

4. The French Senate passed an amendment to allow encryption companies to pay influencers for publicity. The Kingdom of Bhutan plans to set up a $500 million cryptocurrency mining fund.

5. The number of JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in March was 9.59 million, which was lower than the expected 9.775 million and lower than the previous value of 9.931 million. The monthly rate of US factory orders in March was 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.1%. The number of job vacancies in JOLTs fell for the third straight month to a near two-year low, as demand in the labor market slowed.

In terms of encrypted ecological news

1. After the upgrade of Ethereum Shanghai, the net amount of pledged ETH It is positive, reaching 97586ETH, worth about 189 million US dollars.

2. The circulation of Ethereum has decreased by more than 166,000 pieces since the merger, and the current 7-day annualized deflation rate is 1.05%.

3. The US federal government stated that it will focus on digital identity and distributed ledger technology.

4. The fourth largest newspaper in the UK, the "London Evening Standard", issues the coronation NFT of King Charles of the UK, which is available for free on the NFT market Nifty Gateay.

5. The total number of inscriptions on the Bitcoin NFT protocol Ordinals has exceeded 3 million. The number of unconfirmed transactions on the Bitcoin network is 176,737.

6. Payment giant PayPal announced that it will provide consumers with up to $50,000 in voluntary Reg E insurance for cryptocurrency transactions.

7. Layer1 blockchain network Sui Network, the main network will be officially launched at 20:00 on May 3, 2023.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term detection: used Analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under a certain premise Sex

Long term insight

Internet emotional positivity

Uneasy emotional state

Investor costs in recent years

Investment costs for giant whales in recent years

This week mainly considers sentiment and investment in recent years owner's cost of ownership.

The key point of cost has an extremely important role and significance for investment.

Determines the anchoring effect.

(Network emotional positivity in the picture below)

The network sentiment on the chain seems to have improved to a certain extent, from the decline in the first week or two to slowly turning to decrease or partial positive.

(Uneasy emotional state in the picture below)

And The problem is that the uneasiness continues.

More real money is willing to flow money to the safer currency with the largest market value for the hedging effect.

There may be a panic effect in the market and it is still there.

(Investor cost in recent years in the picture below)

Blue Line 2017+ Realized Price: USD 15,394.

Green Blue Line 2018+ Realized Price: USD 18,821.

Yellow Line 2020+ Realized Price: $26.459.

Brown Line 2021+ Realized Cost: $36,196

Dark Red Line 2022+ Implementation Cost: $26,382.

Red Line 2023+ Implementation Cost: $24.304

The cost in 2020, the cost in 2022, the cost in 2023 are closer to the current price state.

Then the focus needs to be paid attention to may be between 26500-24000.

Maybe because of the anchoring effect, it will bring a certain effect of supporting the wall.

(The investment cost of giant whales in the picture below)

Red line is whale December 16, 2018 + withdrawal cost: 23,754.

Blue line is whale March 12, 2020 + withdrawal cost: 28,587 .

Usually, the meaning of the whale's decision is limited.

But in the case of insufficient liquidity and insufficient judgment factors, the actions and costs of giant whales are also an important reference factor.

The approximate cost of this three- to five-year giant whale may be between 28,500 and 23,500.

So according to this theory, 28,500 to 23,500 is an area worthy of attention.

Mid-term exploration

Seller risk ratio

Accumulation trend analysis

Composite model of short-term profit percentage

Profit and loss potential energy

Momentum rating: bearing A certain degree of loss pressure

(the risk ratio of the seller in the figure below)

This model mainly observes the ratio of the selling chips to the realized cost, and measures the internal selling pressure of BTC through the ratio method.

From the current situation, the selling pressure ratio has increased, which may mean that the market is currently under greater pressure.

Of course, it should also be considered from the perspective of market acceptance.

(Profit and loss potential in the picture below)

combined The seller's risk ratio and loss potential are still on the rise, which may cause a certain degree of stampede;

As time slides, the market may be in this delicate The gate shows the effect of emotional amplification.

The reason is that the pressure of losses leads to a greater emotional reaction in the market. The relatively safe place may be to wait for the stagnation of loss potential energy Or slow down.

Structure rating: >10k addresses keep accumulating, there may be reorganization activities

(below Accumulate trend points)

Judging from the cumulative trend of each address,< /p>

＞10k addresses have accumulated more chips, maybe after the accumulation of each group has decreased,

There may be a covert activity of a large group reorganization in the venue.

(Composite model of short-term profit percentage in the figure below)

Blue line: accumulation coefficient, Observe the supply of accumulation groups in the field;

Yellow line: supply of short-term participants

< p>The accumulation coefficient is rising relatively slowly. Combined with last week’s report, the market is showing an increase in the “willingness to hold currency”;

However, short-term participation Those who show that the continuous reduction of supply will bring about insufficient liquidity in the market, and the short-term depth of the handicap is relatively shallow.

Maybe the current state is not suitable for making too clear judgments on kinetic energy. Relatively speaking, the probability of extreme market conditions may increase.

Short-term observation

Derivatives risk factor

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·Option intention transaction ratio

·Derivatives trading volume

·Option implied volatility

·Profit and loss transfer volume

New address and active address

Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange

Net position of Auntie Exchange

High weight selling Pressure

·Global Purchasing Power Status

·Stablecoin Exchange Net Position

·Off-Chain Exchange Data

Derivatives Rating: Rising back to safe zone, risk slightly down.

(Risk coefficient of derivatives in the figure below)

The 5.01 weekly report mentioned that the risk factor has reached the edge of the safe zone, and there is still room to rise, which may trigger a price drop.

In the past two days, the risk factor of derivatives has risen significantly, and the market has also corrected accordingly. Although the risk factor is currently in a safe area, we still need to be alert to the risk of further rise.

(Intention to transaction ratio of options in the figure below)

In the past two weeks, the trading volume of options and the proportion of put options have dropped significantly. That partly reflected some options traders closing out put-protected positions.  

(Trading volume of derivatives in the figure below)

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From the perspective of the trading volume of derivatives, traders in the current market are not willing to place bets, and the trading volume is at a low level, and there are no large fluctuations.

(Implicit volatility of options in the figure below)

The implied volatility of options does not fluctuate much, indicating that the activity of option traders in the current market and their willingness to place bets are not high.

Emotional State Rating: Cautiously Bearish.

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

At present, the profit transfer volume is at a medium-to-high level, but it has fallen back (part of the profit transfer volume is organized by the exchange wallet, not the real profit transfer).

The volume of loss transfers is at a low level, but there are signs of an increase. The current price has already corrected to a certain extent.

Combined with the chip chart, if the loss transfer volume remains low this week, there will be almost no panic and stampede, which is a relative opportunity for the market Positive sign.

(New address and active address in the picture below)

The number of new and active addresses has dropped significantly, and the overall number is lower than 22 years 12 The level at the bottom of the month indicates that the current market activity has dropped significantly, and participation and confidence are insufficient.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: a small amount of outflow, the overall selling pressure is small.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange in the picture below)

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Under the current price, the net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange shows a small amount of outflow accumulation, indicating that the selling pressure in the spot market is relatively small.

(The net position of the E-Taiwan Exchange in the figure below)

< p>E The net position of the Tai Exchange is roughly the same as that of Bingtang Orange, and it is in a state of accumulation of small outflows.

(High weight selling pressure in the picture below)

At present, the most sensitive Etai has no high-weight selling pressure signal (the high-weight selling pressure signal of Bingtang Orange is sorted by the BN exchange wallet).

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is recovering weakly.

(Global purchasing power status in the picture below)

Currently, the purchasing power in Europe and Asia is negative, and the purchasing power in America is relatively weak and slow.

(USDC exchange net position in the figure below)

USDC has a small inflow.

(USDT exchange net position below)

USDT has a slight inflow, but overall, the net position of USDT exchanges is in a state of loss.

Rating of off-chain transaction data: there is a willingness to buy at the price, and there is a willingness to sell at the price.

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

at 26000, 25000, 2550 0 have Willingness to buy;

There is a willingness to sell at 30000, 30450-30500.

(Binance off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at 26500 and 27000;

There is a willingness to sell at 29500, 29700 and 29800.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at 27150;

Yes at 28000 Willingness to sell.

This week’s summary

News summary :

The U.S. inflation indicator CPI remained high, while the core CPI fell slightly, indicating that inflationary pressures are still high.

The Fed raised interest rates 25 months Basis points, but suggesting that the interest rate hike cycle is drawing to a close, the market's hawkish stance on the Fed has eased.

The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls performed well in April, indicating that the economic recovery is strong, and the market is optimistic about the The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are heating up.

The number of job vacancies and factory orders in the United States were lower than expected in March, indicating that economic growth has slowed and labor market demand has weakened.

Long-term insights on the chain:

The network sentiment on the chain seems to have improved, from the decline in the first week or two, it slowly turned In order to reduce or bias.

There may be a panic effect in the market.

In 2020, 2022, and 2023, the cost of investors may be between 26500-24000.

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Looking at the giant whale for 3-5 years, the approximate cost may be between 28,500 and 23,500, so we need to focus on this range.

Market setting tone:

Slow digestion.

< h4>Mid-term investigation on the chain:

There is a certain sell-off ratio in the market;

The loss potential is on the rise stage, no stagnation;

>Addresses above 10k are accumulating chips, and may have restructuring activities;

The accumulation coefficient is increasing, but the supply of short-term participants is decreasing.

Market setting:

Doubt

The market is under a certain pressure of loss. Under the current situation of weak liquidity, it may take time to digest the pressure and get through the current state;

At the same time , the accumulating group in the market is increasing their holdings, and the change of hands may continue.

Short-term observation on the chain:

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The risk coefficient of derivatives rose back to the safe area, and the risk decreased slightly.

New active addresses have dropped significantly, the market activity level is low, and the participation and confidence are insufficient.

The overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish;

Exchange data shows that a small amount of chips are outflowing, and the overall selling pressure is small. ;

Global purchasing power is lost, and the stability is weaker than the recovery of purchasing power.

The transaction data under the chain shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price; there is a willingness to sell at the price.

The probability of not falling below 26500 ~ 22000 in the short term is 70%.

Market Setting

Getting under pressure. The overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish, with a low level of activity, lack of participation and confidence, and a certain pullback pressure.

Strategic suggestion:

Narrow area Trade or hedge risk.

Risk warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; Please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.

This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:

Golden Egg Diary; Elk Will Not Get Lost; Foreign Exchange Brother; Tangyuan; Xibei; Kitkat

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