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Judging from the data, how is the current performance of Curve stablecoin?

Kxp

23-06-13 17:34

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Original Title: "June 12, 2023: Benchmarking $crvUSD"

Original Author: CRV.MKTCAP.ETH

Original Translation: Kxp, BlockBeats

Curve always releases some exciting crvUSD market cap and anchor chart data. These charts always look so perfect and envy-inducing. However, in reality, they don't provide us with too much information - they only tell us that these lines are either only going up (market cap) or staying stable (anchor). In the data of the past month, how does crvUSD perform compared to other stablecoins?

TL/DR

crvUSD is still in its early stages, but it has shown strong performance in anchoring and utilization. Currently, crvUSD is experiencing rapid growth, so it is recommended to re-examine these data when the growth of stablecoins stabilizes.

Methodology

In order to ensure transparency and reproducibility, we have simplified our method as much as possible. We have almost exclusively obtained data directly from Coingecko, so that anyone can replicate this process at home. Specifically, we downloaded CSV files of historical data for 10 stablecoins based on the link here.

The only exception is that CoinGecko does not have market value data for crvUSD, so we created a simple Dune dashboard to easily obtain data from the chain. This is thanks to Dune's new free plan that allows for exporting CSV files.

Of course, the data scale here is very small - less than a month's worth of data, and relative to other stablecoins, the share of crvUSD is very small. Please note that all the following content comes with important annotations.

After having more data, we may revisit this issue, but for now, this is our first attempt to compare crvUSD with other stablecoins as a benchmark.

We have made all the raw data public and used a simple and publicly available Jupyter Notebook for visualization, so anyone can use this data.

Anchor Situation

Although Curve has always maintained a stable chart for crvUSD around $1, we want to see how its anchoring accuracy compares to other stablecoins.

During this period, almost all stablecoins were in the same jumbled pile of colored lines, except for the superior LUSD.

Just yesterday, we saw a very brief dip in TUSD and USDD, so we can clearly see what impact this had on crvUSD (TUSD being an anchor holder for crvUSD). Fortunately, crvUSD has mechanisms in place to prevent its holders from losing their anchor, and in this case, it recovered quite quickly.

This pile of messy colored lines only provides us with partial information, but we can calculate the anchoring indicators of each stablecoin through this data, and we can also use daily data to calculate the average absolute error of each stablecoin relative to 1 US dollar.

Although we don't expect any return, we will still pay attention to LUSD and represent it as a standard deviation, which is more suitable for the situation where LUSD floats above the anchor.

In these two charts, the biggest winner is DAI, followed by the 1:1 supported stablecoins USDC and USDT. At the same time, Paxos' USDP also performed well in them.

In the next stage, crvUSD ranks higher than other stablecoins in terms of price stability. However, its lifecycle is still in the early stages and not enough to celebrate victory, but it is definitely worth paying attention to this indicator and seeing if the anchor can still be maintained at the current level as the stablecoin expands. According to some analysts' estimates, if the Peg Keeper pool increases more liquidity, the anchor may become tighter; or if the market value of the coin expands to become a target for hackers, we may see the opposite effect.

Finally, when we focus on price, we can draw a correlation table to see the fluctuations of stablecoins relative to each other.

Although it is difficult for us to find key information from it, we can see that the price of crvUSD unexpectedly had the highest correlation with USDD in the past month, followed by USDT and USDC.

Utilization

Coingecko has trading volume data, so we can try to understand how much these stablecoins are actually being used.

However, we need to process the data, otherwise we will not get any other information except for the overwhelming advantage of Tether, which is partly influenced by the US Crypto War.

In the above figure, we directly obtained the total market value data of crvUSD from the on-chain data, because CoinGecko did not provide this data. With this data, we can measure the actual utilization rate by dividing the trading volume by the market value.

On this metric, crvUSD is performing well. During the growth phase of crvUSD, it looks great, but please remember that this may be due to newly minted crvUSD being immediately traded (usually currently on Conic), leading to an increase in utilization. It is best to reassess this when the coin exits the growth phase, but this is already a good start.

We can break down this indicator into daily data for display. The abnormally high value at the end is due to a large transaction on the 11th day, which caused the TUSD price to drop. Aside from this, crvUSD and Tether have remained at a relatively high level throughout the entire period, which is worth further attention.

Market Cap

Once again, Tether has formed an overwhelming advantage.

However, if you want to see how the market value actually changes, that's another story. In this regard, the daily growth of crvUSD is astronomical.

The growth of crvUSD is certainly a good thing, but our idea in posting these two charts is that it will be difficult for us to make a reasonable comparison of all the above data unless $crvUSD stops its relatively rapid growth.