Immersed in Web3, "investing" in the world.

Is room temperature superconductivity really true?

If you have unique insights into these events, you can try predicting the Polymarket market. In this market, your perspective will be infinitely magnified. You can learn the latest knowledge and understand the hottest events every day. And who knows, you might even make a small profit based on your cognition.

Not only the topic of whether the founder of Curve will be liquidated, but also topics ranging from the existence of aliens, the truth of room-temperature superconductors, who will be the next US president between Trump and Biden, Bitcoin price predictions, Travis Scott's new album Utopia's first week sales, Mbappe, and even black swan events such as whether Twitter (X) will go bankrupt in 2023 have been discussed.

The first place on the leaderboard earned a profit of $910,000.

Product Overview

If users want to participate in specific events and make predictions about certain events, it is not difficult. If you are familiar with the Trump futures previously launched by FTX, then the operating principle of Polymarket is easy to understand.

Simply put, the sum of the positive and negative prices of each prediction market on Polymarket is 1. Taking the previous US election as an example, if the token price for predicting Trump's victory is 0.3, then the token value for predicting Biden's victory is 0.7. However, on Polymarket, the value of tokens on both sides is higher than 1 because each transaction requires a certain amount of handling fee.

Finally, Biden won and the Biden coin is worth 1, while the Trump coin is worth 0.

Get Account

Users can choose to register with their email or connect directly with their Web3 wallet. By transferring USDC to their proxy wallet on Polymarket, users can recharge their account on the platform. The proxy wallet holds all of the user's funds, and the user can obtain the private key to their proxy address. Using the proxy wallet can provide an improved user experience on Polymarket, where multi-step transactions can be automatically executed.

Through the Polygon network, my USDC was transferred almost instantly to my Polymarket account.

For Belief, Pay the Bill

Polymarket initially used AMM, but this method caused some impermanent loss to liquidity providers. Now, Polymarket uses "CLOB" (Central Limit Order Book), a centralized order book. Currently, Polymarket is holding some events to strengthen liquidity in the order book by encouraging users to participate in Liquidity Mining by placing limit orders at the midpoint.

Review the events and price trends.

On July 26th, a South Korean research team published a paper claiming to have discovered the world's first room-temperature superconductor "LK-99". The material can reach the superconducting critical point at 127 degrees Celsius under normal pressure.

On July 27th, Polymarket opened a "prediction market on whether room-temperature superconductivity is real" with a 50:50 ratio, and soon after, the number of those who disagreed rapidly increased. At its peak, this market believed that there was an 85% chance that this room-temperature superconductivity was false.

With the release of a tweet by Andrew Cote, a practitioner in the encryption industry, it was revealed that the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in the United States submitted a paper on arXiv supporting LK-99 as a room-temperature superconductor. This news sparked strong optimism in the market for room-temperature superconductors, causing a major reversal. At one point, the market had a 60% chance of believing in room-temperature superconductors. In other words, on Polymarket, which allows for timely trading, users who believe in room-temperature superconductors can earn more than double their profits.

Currently, the market has returned to silence, and it is believed that the probability of successful room temperature superconductivity has once again become a minority.

尘埃落定

translates to

Dust Settles

.

Before opening the prediction market, Polymarket has set specific judgment criteria for each prediction. Each user needs to carefully read the judgment criteria before participating to avoid other disputes and deviations.

Take the recent hot market of "Will Curve founder be liquidated" as an example. The standard set by Polymarket is that "if any part of Michael Egorov's multi-million dollar position on Aave and/or Fraxlend is forcibly liquidated before 11:59 pm Eastern Time on August 15th, the market will decide YES. Otherwise, the market will make a NO decision."

During the process of undetermined results, users can also learn about the position of both parties in the transaction through the official data provided.

User participation in the reality of room temperature superconductivity

Polymarket Leaderboard, the top-ranked user earns over $900,000 in profits

舌战群儒

translates to

Tongue Battle with the Crowd

in English.

To some extent, Polymarket can be considered an outlier product. Because here you can have a serious "discussion" about specific events with users from all over the world, instead of speculating on cryptocurrency.

Some popular market segments have also integrated the Disqus function, which is like installing a Baidu Tieba in these prediction markets. Users can speak freely here, not only sharing information related to relevant topics, but also directly expressing their opinions.

Not only on the website, but also in the official community of Polymarket, the Crypto content is extremely low, and all members are knowledgeable and well-informed.

However, Polymarket currently does not support self-built markets. If users want to construct a market for a specific event, they still need to submit a series of materials for the Polymarket team to review.

That being said, the team was once fined $1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the United States due to non-compliance with market regulations.

As Mike from 1confirmation said,

Polymarket can quickly create markets for popular topics such as culture, technology, and politics, attracting a diverse community of members who not only possess vitality but can also obtain a true barometer of emotions through Polymarket.

Based on cryptocurrency, the prediction market is a way to combat the spread of incorrect or biased information in the media, providing economic incentives for people to seek the truth.

The era of predicting the Mass Adoption market is coming. As the world becomes more interconnected and information spreads faster, the demand for reliable, community-driven platforms continues to grow.」

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