Original Title: "The Ins and Outs: BTC Spot ETF Application Tug of War"

Original Source: 0xTodd

Many friends have various questions about the application of BTC spot ETF. Today, I will briefly sort out the history of BTC spot ETF for everyone.

【What happened in the past】-【What are the recent developments】-【What will happen in the future】

【Past】

1. Grayscale has applied N times to convert its GBTC into a real spot ETF, but all have been rejected by the SEC.

-GBTC cannot be redeemed, so there has always been a premium, and now the premium is -13%, the highest point in nearly 2 years.

- The peak price difference is +40% (the top of the bull market), and the most desperate price difference has reached -45% (the industry's lowest point).

- Conversely, if it becomes an ETF, its price will strictly track BTC because its redemption and rebalancing are very smooth.

GBTC premium performance, source: https://ycharts.com/

2.SEC rejected multiple grayscale and various BTC spot ETF applications

-SEC's reasons are usually that BTC and exchanges are easily manipulated, or other vague reasons.

- However, the SEC has approved several BTC futures ETFs, such as BITO.

- Other countries have also approved several BTC spot ETFs, such as Canada.

- Therefore, currently the only thing missing is a BTC spot ETF in the United States.

【Recently】

3. Grey launches a lawsuit against SEC, questioning why only futures ETFs are approved, not spot ETFs

-Result: SEC loses the case.

- And the appeal period has just passed.

The ruling was made by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which is generally considered second only to the Supreme Court of the United States.

4. What is the difference between spot ETF and futures ETF? - From the perspective of price fluctuations, they are very similar, both accurately tracking the price of BTC to help investors gain BTC exposure.

-From a product perspective, the fees for futures ETFs are usually higher, after all, futures operations need to be carried out, which is more complicated.

- From a psychological perspective, if an institution has configured a spot ETF, theoretically it truly holds BTC, but it is just entrusted to the ETF manager. However, if it configures a futures ETF, it seems more like short-term speculation. After all, investing in BTC through regular investment plans is investing in real BTC. Who would invest in perpetual BTC contracts through regular investment plans?

-Therefore, Grayscale believes that SEC's reason "easily manipulated" is not valid after approving futures ETF.

5. Grayscale resubmitted new materials yesterday to convert its GBTC into a true ETF.

-Other applicants, such as the much-discussed BTC ETF from BlackRock, are new products that are launched directly, while Grayscale is converting its old products into ETFs.

- Grayscale used the S-3 form instead of the commonly used S-1 form because Grayscale believed that its product was already a mature product.

【未来】

translates to

【Future】

in English.

6.SEC 败诉=SEC 必须给出明确理由，但≠SEC 一定会批准 BTC 现货 ETF

6. SEC's defeat means that SEC must provide clear reasons, but it does not necessarily mean that SEC will approve BTC spot ETF.

- However, all futures ETFs have been approved, so it will be difficult to write a rejection reason.

-There is no reason why this may not lead to SEC approving BTC spot ETF under pressure. Of course, SEC can also continue to reject it firmly.

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