Original title: "Telegram vs X (Twitter): Who will dominate the super app competition in the Web3 era?"

Original source: LK Venture

TL;DR

1. Explore the potential of Web2 applications such as X and Telegram in the Web3 world, not only to gain insight into the future development of these social platforms, but also to anticipate the new patterns and orders of the future Web3 world.

2. X and Telegram have significant differences in user market distribution, main functions, innovation capabilities, business models, openness, community culture, Web3 exploration, etc. The competition and cooperation between the two may coexist in the long term.

3. The four key elements for winning the competition of Web3 super applications between X and Telegram are the reshaping of user experience, new standards for privacy and security, integration of technological innovation and ecosystem, and innovation in business models.

4. Despite the increasingly fierce competition between X and Telegram around Web3 super applications, there are still uncertain changes, and the final competitive landscape may present unexpected results.

Web2 Social Media Giants' Encryption Evolution May Bring a New Order to the Web3 World

Web3, as the representative of the next generation of the Internet, marks a significant shift from centralization to decentralization. Compared to Web2, Web3 emphasizes user data ownership, decentralized network structure, and transparency based on blockchain technology. This not only represents a technological leap, but also heralds a revolution in network interaction and business models.

For example, the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) is a practical manifestation of the Web3 concept. According to DappRadar data, the peak TVL in the DeFi field reached 267 billion US dollars in 2022, while the NFT market transaction volume was about 25 billion US dollars. These data highlight the enormous potential of the Web3 world.

In the Web2 era, WeChat is undoubtedly the giant of social applications. As of 2023, the monthly active users of WeChat have exceeded 1.2 billion, making it one of the most popular social applications in the world. WeChat is not only a communication tool, but also a super application that integrates payment, shopping, games, mini-programs and other functions.

The success of WeChat lies in its all-encompassing ecosystem, which allows users to complete almost all daily operations on one platform. The influence of WeChat is not only reflected in the number of users, but also in the way it has changed people's lifestyles and business models.

Against this backdrop, exploring the potential of Web2 applications such as X and Telegram in the Web3 world is not only an exploration of the future development of these social platforms, but also a prediction of the new pattern and order of the future Web3 world.

Of course, other social platforms such as Facebook and Kakao also have great potential in the Web3 world, but currently, X and Telegram may be the first Web2 social platforms to make significant progress in the Web3 world.

X and Telegram are globally renowned social media platforms, each with unique advantages and a massive user base. X is known for its extensive influence and diverse user demographics, while Telegram is favored by users for its high emphasis on privacy protection and security. In the wave of Web3, these two platforms are facing challenges in adapting to decentralization trends and innovating services and business models using blockchain technology. These factors will be crucial in determining whether they can become the WeChat giants of the Web3 world.

Elon Musk has publicly praised WeChat in China multiple times, stating that "in China, you can live in WeChat, it can do everything." His vision is to create a super app with the same comprehensive functionality, and X is the name he has given to this application.

In order to meet the special needs of dating services, X may need to develop new algorithms and user interfaces. Becoming a "digital bank" also means that X may introduce financial services such as payment processing, fund transfers, or even cryptocurrency transactions, which will require X to establish a strong security and compliance framework to ensure the safety and legality of financial transactions.

Meanwhile, Pavel Durov, co-founder of Telegram, initially envisioned TON as a means of integrating cryptocurrency transactions into chats and monetizing them through applications. In mid-September 2023, the TON Foundation announced a formal partnership with Telegram aimed at integrating and promoting the TON network ecosystem to Telegram's 800 million active users. They plan to attract and convert 30% of Telegram's active users, or 240 million users, into active TON network users by 2028. The TON Space wallet, which has self-hosted storage, has seamlessly integrated into Telegram, improving user experience and potentially attracting new users interested in cryptocurrency.

In this fast-changing digital age, it is much easier to encroach on low-frequency scenarios in high-frequency scenarios. As a super high-frequency scenario, social penetration into the financial scene is much easier than adding social elements to the financial scene. The key to success lies in convenience. Allowing users to download one less application is a very obvious sign of success.

X and Telegram are both working hard to achieve this goal, but their paths and strategies are different. Over time, we will see which platform can better adapt to the trends of Web3 and ultimately become the leader of this new era.

All the features we have seen on WeChat will be implemented on X and Telegram. These rich ecosystems will form a powerful driving force, significantly increasing the stickiness and usage time of X and Telegram users. This logic is similar to the transition from the Internet to mobile Internet, and then from applications to mini-programs. Nevertheless, at the initial stage, this is already enough to strike a blow to the Web3 world.

By analyzing their current status, advantages, challenges, and future possibilities, we can better understand the development trends and business opportunities of social media in the Web3 era, including but not limited to the following aspects:

Large user base: Both X and Telegram have a large global user base. This means that when they turn to Web3, they have the potential to bring billions of users into the Web3 ecosystem. This scale of user migration is crucial for promoting the popularity and acceptance of Web3.

Influence and brand awareness: As globally renowned social media platforms, X and Telegram have significant brand influence. Their adoption and promotion of Web3 may have a significant impact on public awareness and attitudes towards Web3.

Potential of innovation and technology integration: Both X and Telegram have a history of implementing technological innovation and integrating new technologies. Their activities in the Web3 field may bring new technological breakthroughs, such as in decentralization, data security, and user experience.

Business Model Transformation: Web3 provides a new business model, especially in terms of data ownership and user incentives. The exploration of X and Telegram in these areas may open up a new chapter in the business model of social media.

Reshaping Privacy and Security: As users become increasingly concerned about privacy and data security, Telegram has established a reputation in this area. The development of X and Telegram in the Web3 field may further strengthen social media platforms' ability to protect user privacy and data.

Community and Decentralized Governance: Web3 emphasizes the power and participation of the community. The experience of X and Telegram in building and maintaining active communities may play an important role in building decentralized governance structures and promoting user participation.

Therefore, the development potential of X and Telegram in the Web3 world is worth high attention. Their movements may have profound impacts on the entire Web3 ecosystem and even the future development of the Internet.

X and Telegram Basic Information and Competitive Analysis

X and Telegram are both globally renowned social media platforms, each with a large user base and extensive market distribution. They differ in their main functions, with X focusing more on public topic discussions and information dissemination, while Telegram places more emphasis on privacy protection and security. The main differences between the two include:

X vs Telegram Comparison

1. X:

2. Telegram

In the Web3 world, the reshaping of user experience means moving beyond traditional convenience and interface attractiveness, towards a deeper sense of participation and ownership.

——Telegram: With its high level of privacy protection and security, it can create a more secure and private social environment. For example, by introducing blockchain-based identity verification and data storage, Telegram can provide users with a higher level of privacy protection and data security.

TON achieves the goal of future million-level TPS by implementing the "infinite sharding paradigm", bringing a better user experience (source: Beosin).

2. New Standards for Privacy and Security:

——X: More efforts need to be made in protecting user privacy and data security. For example, X can introduce decentralized data storage solutions to ensure the security and immutability of user data.

——Telegram: Already has inherent advantages in privacy and security, which can be further strengthened, for example, by introducing a blockchain-based decentralized identity verification system to provide a higher level of user privacy protection.

Comparison between TON and Ethereum and Bitcoin networks shows significant advantages in fault tolerance and redundant storage.

——Telegram: With its openness and flexibility, it has the potential to deeply integrate with a wider Web3 ecosystem.

As a public chain with a circulating market value of up to 3 billion US dollars, Ton's Tvl is only about 10 million US dollars. Although this data is not satisfactory, it also contains huge opportunities, especially for developers. Developers have sufficient time and space to explore potential opportunities in the ecosystem. At the same time, the Ton project team has also realized this and actively attracted more developers to participate through hackathon activities and support funds.

However, the L2 ecosystem of Ethereum has demonstrated strong network effects, with significant advantages in infrastructure maturity, application diversity, innovation, and funding scale. The market's interest in new public chains seems to be waning. If the Ethereum L2 ecosystem can achieve significant breakthroughs in large-scale applications, this may reduce the attractiveness of the TON ecosystem or affect the development of Telegram's Web3 ecosystem.

4. Business Model Innovation:

- X: As of 2023, X's financial data shows that its main source of revenue is still advertising, accounting for the vast majority of total revenue. According to the 2022 financial report, X's advertising revenue reached approximately $4 billion. In addition, X also generates revenue through data licensing and other services, which although a smaller proportion, still brings in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the company. X is also actively exploring new revenue streams, including launching subscription services, enhancing e-commerce capabilities, and integrating cryptocurrency payments.

- Telegram: Since its establishment in 2013, Telegram has grown into a product with over 800 million monthly active users worldwide. However, its revenue scale does not match its user base. Currently, in addition to standard subscription services, Telegram's revenue mainly comes from limited advertising. According to data, Telegram's advertising revenue in 2022 is only 10 billion rubles, equivalent to 104 million US dollars. In comparison, Bilibili, which has only a quarter of Telegram's monthly active users, had nearly 700 million US dollars in advertising revenue in 2022.

5. Impact of Business Genes

When exploring the competition of super applications in the Web3 era, the business genes of X and Telegram will have a significant impact on their development trajectory.

- The commercial DNA of X is very similar to social sharing platforms such as Weibo. Taking Weibo as an example, as a public platform, its core is information dissemination and social interaction, which is highly consistent with X's original intention and development direction. Weibo's success lies in its ability to quickly spread information and gather public attention, which has always been X's strength.

In the Web3 era, X can learn from the feature of Weibo to enhance the functions of information dissemination and social interaction, while integrating blockchain technology to provide a more transparent and decentralized information sharing platform. In addition, X can also explore the successful experience of Weibo in content creation and user interaction, such as encouraging users to create and share high-quality content through token incentive mechanisms.

——Telegram: Telegram's business genes are based on IM tools, which are closely related to WeChat. WeChat, as a multifunctional social application, not only provides communication services, but also integrates payment, shopping, games and other functions, forming a comprehensive ecosystem.

Telegram can learn from WeChat's model and explore more diversified services and applications while maintaining its core communication and privacy protection functions. For example, Telegram can integrate Web3 elements such as decentralized finance services (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFT) on its platform to provide users with a richer and more convenient service experience. At the same time, Telegram can use its powerful privacy protection function to provide users with a more secure and trustworthy Web3 social environment.

Overall, predicting the outcome of the competition between X and Telegram is not easy. ChatGPT has provided its answer, but of course, this is only a reference.

Speculative Thoughts on the Final Competition between X and Telegram

- Web2 giant acquires Telegram: If WeChat announces the acquisition of Telegram, it will greatly change the global social media and instant messaging market. This merger may bring about the integration of technology and market resources, thereby exerting greater competitive pressure on X. It is worth noting that as early as September of this year, Tencent Cloud has announced its cooperation with the TON Foundation to support the web applications and robots built within Telegram, and the cooperation between the two parties is quietly underway.

- X announced a major collaboration with the Web3 project: If X announces a partnership with a high-performance blockchain network such as Solana or some L2, it may significantly enhance its competitiveness in the Web3 field. This collaboration may involve cryptocurrency payments, integration of decentralized applications (DApps), and more. Tip: Now, when you type "Web3" in the X text, the Immutable logo suffix will automatically appear (of course, this is probably still a technical bug).

- Government intervention strengthened: The government may introduce new regulatory policies that have a significant impact on social media and cryptocurrency markets. For example, suppose the US government introduces new social media regulatory policies that require all social platforms to strictly review and delete content deemed "fake news." This may force X to invest a lot of resources to comply with these regulations, while also potentially causing controversy over freedom of speech, affecting user activity and brand image.

- Geopolitical Risks: With the impact of international situations such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it may affect the international image and brand reputation of Telegram and X. If they are seen as political tools of a certain country or part of information warfare, it may damage their reputation among global users. Currently, the countries with the highest market share of Telegram are Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, etc.; X is mainly based in the United States and Europe.

- Technical innovation breakthrough: If X or Telegram achieves a significant technological breakthrough, it could bring about a major shift in competition. Suppose Telegram develops a new decentralized identity verification system based on ZK technology that can provide efficient identity verification services while protecting user privacy. This technological innovation may attract a group of users who are highly sensitive to privacy, thereby enhancing Telegram's competitiveness in the social media market.

- Major Security Incident: If X or Telegram experiences a major security vulnerability or data breach, this could seriously damage user trust and affect their market position; it could also result in heavy penalties from the government and strong public criticism.

- Major partnership: Imagine if X announced a partnership with Amazon, allowing users to directly purchase Amazon products on the X platform and make cryptocurrency payments. This would greatly enhance X's competitiveness in the e-commerce and payment fields.

Conclusion

In the competition of exploring the super applications of Telegram and X (formerly Twitter) in the Web3 era, the reshaping of user experience, the new standards of privacy and security, and the integration of technology innovation and ecosystem may become the three key factors for victory. With its advantages in privacy protection and security, as well as close cooperation with the TON network, Telegram is actively exploring the possibilities of Web3. X, under the leadership of Musk, has demonstrated its ambition for diversified services and the concept of digital banking. These initiatives are not only a challenge to existing business models, but also an exploration of the future development direction of social media.

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