OPRR Flash Depth Activities

Search Extension

November Outlook: Don’t expect too much from Layer2 this year

雨中狂睡

23-11-06 15:36

Read this article in 12 Minutes

AI summary

View the summary

Original author: Rain in the Rain

Editor's note: Crypto KOL Rain in the Rain (@0xSleepinRain) will forecast and analyze the crypto market every month based on his own views and information. This article only represents his personal views and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.

GM, I've been very busy recently, so I'm sorry for delaying for a while.

November outlook is here.

Let me briefly talk about what I'm optimistic about or holding

1. Cancun system

Cancun should not happen this year, so don't expect too much from the Layer2 explosion this year. From November 13th to 19th, the Ethereum Foundation will hold the "Devconnect Istanbul" summit in Istanbul, Turkey, and you can observe the meeting at that time. However, every meeting will fall, so pay attention to the risks here.

However, I still hold $ARB spot and have been accumulating it.

2. Arbitrum Ecosystem

ARB GRANT ended last month, and the incentive will be carried out in January next year. Therefore, although the Arbitrum chain is in a warming period, it will take until next year to wait for a large influx of liquidity. Recently, the most concerned proposal should be the proposal to start ARB staking, which was initiated by the $PLS project party. The fundamental reason is that the $PLS project party did a shitty thing before, which caused $plsARB to be seriously de-anchored. The current operation is to use the money of the $ABR treasury to return $plsARB to its anchor. I don’t know whether this proposal will be passed in the end. If it is passed, it will be a short-term benefit for $ARB. However, various governance disasters also reflect that Arbitrum has a big problem in governance, which will affect the overall development of Arbitrum’s Layer2 in the long run.

Speculative Possibility: $plsARB $ARB

The pledge is passed, which is a short-term positive for $plsARB and $ARB.

III. Cosmos Series

The four best performers in the Cosmos Series should be Thorchain, Injective, Kujira, and Canto. The price increase of Thorchain comes from the promotion of fundamentals - you can go to the data dashboard provided by the official, and Thorchain's recent data is very good. Since the price of $RUNE is closely related to its fundamentals, it is also my most optimistic Cosmos Series Token.

The rise of Kujira $KUJI and Injective $INJ seems quite nonsensical. It can only be judged that someone is willing to stir up trouble in the secondary market. Although the prices are not driven by fundamentals, the basic market of these two application chains is still good - Cosmos is the tallest among the short ones.

Let me briefly explain my understanding of $RUNE.

To understand the rise of $RUNE, you need to understand the mechanism of $RUNE. RUNE itself is a token that is long on volatility. The greater the market volatility (mainly $BTC and $ETH), the more people go to Thorchain for arbitrage (need to balance the 1:1 balance of BTC-RUNE and ETH-RUNE). Arbitrageurs support the trading volume of Thorchain. The more transaction fees, the higher the LP income (and half of it is RUNE. The more RUNE rises, the more money LP has on the books). The growth of LP TVL means that the buying of RUNE is stronger (1:1 LP and nodes buy RUNE to protect LP). The rise of RUNE, the higher its volatility. This cycle repeats. In other words, as long as the volatility of BTC, ETH and RUNE is higher, RUNE will rise. Therefore, people in the market will call him Little $LUNA.

Canto created enough expectations for the market (Polygon migration and RWA), so it was able to maintain an upward trend before. However, its LP income is supported by $CANTO inflation, which is a risk.

In addition, my personal idea for TIA is to buy at a low point and stake it in different wallets.

Fourth, $FRONT

The logic behind my buying $FRONT is that it has created a SelfChain. SelfChain has many buffs, modular, private key-free and intent-based Layer1. Later, Front will exchange tokens, exchange FRONT for SELF, and issue more tokens. For me, FRONT is a good investment target. The exchange of tokens should happen this year.

Five, $DYDX

There are many people in the market who talk about DYDX staking, and some have calculated the returns, so I will briefly talk about it here.

After v4, DYDX has changed from a pure governance token (mining coin) to a real income token. All transaction fees of DYDX V4 will be given to Validator. And users can stake DYDX into Validator to get a share of the transaction fees (100%), just like ETH. Previously, DYDX was the largest decentralized derivatives exchange in the market. Let’s think about it and calculate how much the annualized return of staking DYDX can be by then?

A guess: If the annualized rate reaches 30%, will DYDX, which will be unlocked in December, be sold?

DYDX is a potential target that I am optimistic about, and the time to increase the position will be after the unlocking.

Six, BRC20

I have positions in both $SATS and $ORDI (band). In short, it is Bullish, without specific and complex logic - as the leader of the BTC ecosystem, and BTC ETF and halving narrative will be the mainstream narrative in the future, why not be optimistic and hold?

Seven, Games

I will talk about the content of the game in detail on the account @0xPixelPenguin. At present, I am deeply involved in Parallel $PRIME and Pixels Online (I have introduced it in detail on that account before). Pixels is farming, and the background is good. I bought NFT. $PRIME has been increasing its spot holdings. Parallel is a blockchain game supported by Paradigm and Coinbase. It is now in the testing period and is migrating to Base. There is no reason not to be optimistic. It’s just that it’s not $PRIME time yet.

$GHST is not mentioned. The position is not large and has been stuck.

Add some more targets I am looking at

1. Tableland Rigs

In the middle of this year, I bought Tableland Rigs NFT to fly. Plus the team will attend and give a speech in Istanbul - the expected event is Tableland Rigs TGE. The exact time is unknown, but it is getting closer, either this year or next year. You might as well find an opportunity to buy some Rigs and earn some FT reputation by flying. Maybe there will be airdrops later - this NFT is similar to Gala's node, a means of early financing.

I hold Rigs NFT myself.

Second, $STG

$STG Everyone is speculating on the expectation that Upbit will launch a Korean won trading pair (someone has mentioned this before, the keyword is UDC), which may be between the 20th and 30th of this month. Another is the LayerZero airdrop, but I personally think that this kind of thing is unpredictable, and you can't rely on a blank check to hype STG. Upbit's expectations are still more reliable.

3. $LBR

I still have a little Lybra. It is the only LSDFi Token I still hold. As for other LSDFi, I personally think it is still possible to participate (deposit E), but be cautious when buying tokens.

4. Solana

$SOL has performed very strongly, and the Solana ecosystem has also risen. I personally think Jito, the Solana LSD, is worth participating in and brushing points.

5. Sui&Aptos

Sui's TVL has exceeded 100 million US dollars, and there are many mining opportunities in the ecosystem, such as Cetus and NAVI. But the driving force behind the rise of TVL is actually the $SUI liquidity incentive provided by Sui officials. If you want to buy SUI, you also need to pay attention to this selling pressure, and you can't just look at it from the fundamentals. More importantly, it depends on the development of the Sui ecosystem.

Aptos TVL has also risen a lot. From my own conclusion, it is the people who unlocked it who put $APT in the ecosystem. Maybe they may know something - APT may follow the unlocking narrative.

Six, Blur

An important event for Blur this month was November 20, and the price performance was also good. This wave of $BLUR's rebound may be related to the recovery of the NFT market, oversold rebound and unlocking expectations. Similar to APT, you can pay more attention to it.

Finally, there are quite a lot of summits in November, and everyone is saying that "every meeting will fall", so what I plan to do this month is to stop profit frequently and buy the callback. The bull market is here, I wish you all good fortune.