Exclusive interview with Matrixport analyst Markus: Bitcoin will reach $125,000, and the bull market is only halfway there

czgsws

24-03-01 14:37

Read this article in 16 Minutes

AI summary

View the summary

When Bitcoin, with a market value of US$1 trillion, can rise by 50% within a month, Markus Thielen's market analysis report is widely spread in the community. Of course, everyone is more familiar with his title - Matrixport's Analyst, he is also a researcher at 10X Research. Markus's Bitcoin report has been quite accurate in predicting the price of Bitcoin in recent months. It seems that both the rise and fall are within his calculations. Not long ago, Markus even analyzed that Bitcoin was at risk of falling, and the market fell in response, which made Markus famous. Big noise.

Markus Thielen

When Bitcoin has reached US$60,000 and is less than 10% away from the previous high of US$69,000, BlockBeats is looking for Markus Chatted. The most important information for everyone is that this unusually accurate analyst believes that Bitcoin can reach $125,000 this year. Of course, beyond prices, Markus also talked about the impact of ETFs and his views on the market.

BlockBeats: Okay, first of all, can you briefly share your experience, like how you joined Matrixport as a Bitcoin analyst?

Markus: A few years ago I was the head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at Morgan Stanley and basically became A portfolio manager who worked for large banks and large hedge funds, also set up his own hedge fund in Hong Kong, and also served as chief investment officer of a crypto asset management company. The experience of these jobs brought me to Matrixport.

BlockBeats: So you started trading Bitcoin many years ago?

Markus: Yes, the first time I paid attention to Bitcoin was in 2013, and we tried to set up some trading platforms in 2015 Arbitrage as a side hustle, but full time trading was a few years ago. When market capitalization becomes quite high, Bitcoin really becomes a macro asset, which is why we can make predictions correctly. Quantitative analysis, macro analysis, and liquidity analysis, these sectors form the basis of the market. Basics of forecasting.

BlockBeats: Got it, let’s talk about Bitcoin directly. You said last November that Bitcoin could rise to $57,000. Is this going beyond your expectations?

Markus: First, in October 2022, we said that Bitcoin could reach $63,000 in March of this year and enter a downward trend. half term. Our views and analysis are actually supported by data. We do not put forward price targets casually. There is always a quantitative approach behind it. When we said last November that Bitcoin could hit $57,000, we have honestly exceeded expectations now.

In October 22, about 15 months ago, we were already looking at the $60,000 level. But the reality is, when you look at the symmetry of previous cycles, the bull market is actually only halfway through. When you understand how previous bull markets have evolved, you won’t be surprised to see Bitcoin gain 10% overnight. For example, according to some analysis we did this morning (February 29), it is difficult for us to be bearish here because it will continue to rise.

BlockBeats: Do you think this bull market is only halfway through?

Markus: Based on the data we are running, it looks like we are only halfway through this bull market. That doesn't mean we're still going up 150% or 160%. But when you look at the previous cycles, I can show you a chart (see below) that if you bought 500 days before the halving, that was actually the bottom. And then the next 500 days, which is 18 months, is the second phase of the rebound.

When we are in 2022 When doing the analysis in October, this chart suggested that we were at the bottom. Now a lot of Bitcoin holders are saying you should buy Bitcoin after the halving because it tends to go up after the halving, but our view has always been that you should buy Bitcoin 14 to 15 months before the halving because It will most likely be at a low point at that time. So yes, we are still halfway into a bull market.

BlockBeats: I can’t imagine how high Bitcoin can go.

Markus:There are two data, we will not just say some numbers, I do not rely on feeling trading. But over the past three presidential elections, which of course coincided with the halving cycle, so the U.S. elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin's average return in those years was 192%, Bitcoin's return in each of those years Both have increased by more than 100%. So based on 192%, we start the year at $40,000 and Bitcoin could end the year at $125,000. One indicator we saw last July was that when Bitcoin hit a new one-year high for the first time in a year, there was a 300% rally, so that number could also push $125,000. We were very accurate last year, and we may be more conservative this year, and Bitcoin may reach $125,000 by the end of this year or next year.

BlockBeats: $125,000, that’s crazy, so what’s the biggest reason why Bitcoin is able to reach this level, is it an ETF? I feel like each of us is underestimating the impact of ETFs.

Markus: Asia may not understand or really not realize that many asset management companies in the United States are using ETFs to do their Asset allocation decisions. In Asia, people like to buy specific stocks, such as individual stocks like Bank of China, compared to the U.S., if investors like banks, they will buy the entire basket, which is what ETFs are really about.

These asset management companies manage a large amount of money, not one thousand dollars, but tens of billions. They will not say that they invest one million in JPMorgan Chase. , they would just say it was a billion dollar bank index. These people have access to ETFs that are truly astronomical. We've been trying to show since July last year that if these ETFs were approved, these magnitudes of dollars coming in, the impact would be huge.

The market has been comparing the changes in Tether’s market capitalization to the price of Bitcoin. For example, the minting of 10 billion USDT should theoretically mean that 10 billion U.S. dollars of fiat currency enter cryptocurrency. But now instead of going through USDT, that money can flow into these Bitcoin ETFs, so now we're seeing a surge.

BlockBeats: So ETFs are the biggest reason for the surge now?

Markus: It is an ETF, but ETF represents the institutionalization of Bitcoin. I have traded gold, interest rates, and foreign exchange. When some uncertainty occurs, you buy gold because it is a safe haven. But Bitcoin is a better hedge. First, it reacts much more strongly to changes in U.S. interest rates. It reacts much more strongly to war, with Bitcoin rising stronger than gold during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. You know, when there's a banking crisis in the United States, like we saw last March, Bitcoin went from 20,000 to 28,000 in two weeks. Bitcoin is becoming a better macro asset than gold.

There are now two largest gold ETFs with $80 billion in assets under management, including a $55 billion gold ETF with $2.7 billion in assets under management. outflow. I suspect these outflows were moved to Bitcoin, which I believe was an allocation shift from gold to Bitcoin. So we may not see registered investment advisors or institutions buying Bitcoin in person now, we may only see people who own gold moving their allocations to digital gold.

BlockBeats: Do you think there will be another black swan event?

Markus: Basically not, we are in a bull market, it seems impossible from regulation and the Bitcoin network itself, the only possibility The black swan event that occurred was that someone was able to access Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet.

BlockBeats: Many people are curious about how you analyze the market. Do you use any tools or models?

Markus: Yes, we have many tools that we run every day. Every day for the past few years, whether it's weekends or holidays, I've been saving data as soon as I wake up, just so we can understand what's going on and see if there's any change in supply and demand. At the same time, we ran a lot of quantitative models. For example, Bitcoin was overbought at $48,000 two weeks ago, and the market concluded that profits were about to be taken. But in fact, our backtest gave exactly the opposite conclusion. In October 2022, everyone was talking about regulation in the United States, the bear market, bankruptcies, Bitcoin was at $20,000, but we came up with $63,000. It seemed a bit strange at the time, but the data tells us.

BlockBeats: Have you ever had a time when the data told you it was going up but you thought it was going down?

Markus: In my experience, the data is often correct. And the most painful moment is really when you see that your model was correct and you didn't engage as the model said it would.

For example, last night I thought I should settle some profits, but I suddenly saw a lot of increase in trading activity in Korea in the past 24 hours, a few months ago, in Upbit, trading volume is less than $1 billion. But in the past 24 hours, trading volume exceeded $7 billion. So Asian trading hours are no longer sideways.

BlockBeats: More and more people are reading your reports, and it seems that your reports are increasingly affecting the market. Do you feel more pressure?

Markus: Yes. To provide our readers and subscribers with good analysis and high-quality reporting. The more attention you get and the more people follow you, the greater the pressure. Especially when we’ve been accurate so many times, of course we’re afraid of the times we’re not accurate. But I still trust my data model.

BlockBeats: In addition to ETF and gold inflows, are there other reasons that will push the price of Bitcoin higher?

Markus:Honestly, I see no other reason right now. This bull market is very different. The last bull market was DeFi summer, where altcoins were the protagonists, but this time it was more or less focused on Bitcoin.

BlockBeats: So it might just be a Bitcoin bull market and not an altcoin bull market.

Markus: Yes.

BlockBeats: But many people will think that the money gained from Bitcoin can flow to other altcoins.

Markus: Those who buy ETFs don’t see it this way. Bitcoin’s dominance is about 52%. If there is really As altcoins rebound, Bitcoin’s dominance will drop below 50%, and I can’t see the narrative of altcoins. There is still a narrative in DeFi summer. But now I don't see it.