These important data analyzes will help you make decisions about the market outlook

Original author: Riyue Xiaochu, crypto KOL

Editor’s note: Recently, Bitcoin has repeatedly broken through new highs. Regarding the subsequent trend, many investment research institutions and KOLs have made their own analyses. Reference reading: "2024 will be the main rising year of this bull market, which is more reliable The strategy is to increase the position》. Crypto KOL Riyuexiaochu listed several key data on X to help readers To understand the market, BlockBeats reprints the full text as follows:

Note: This article only represents the personal views of the author of the original article and is for learning and communication only and does not provide investment advice.

[Several important data to help you decide on the market outlook]

1) From BTC 3.8 w Calculated so far, the total market value of stablecoins has increased by US$11 billion. There was a significant growth rate last week, with an additional US$3.7 billion in stablecoin issuance.

2) Starting from March 6, the main body of BTC pulls has become Asian funds. There are signs of US funds retreating, and BTC fell by 15% in the US time zone, which is not a good sign.

3) ETF inflows totaled US$9.5 billion, so the capital inflow of stablecoins still exceeds the capital inflow of ETFs and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the currency circle. . However, ETFs can only buy BTC, so ETF funds are more dominant in the rise of BTC.

4) In terms of large BTC users, the number of addresses with more than 1,000 has begun to drop by 50 bits in the past week, while the number of addresses with more than 100 has increased by 86 bits.

1 Analysis of the total market value of stablecoins

From the perspective of the total market value of stablecoins, the following is Some data

1) At the lowest point of this market cycle, which was September 10, 23, the total market value of stablecoins was US$121 billion

2) At the lowest point after the ETF passed, BTC was adjusted to 38,500, that is, on January 23, 24, the total market value of stablecoins was 128.3 billion US dollars

3) Last Monday, the total market value of stablecoins Market value is US$135.6 billion

4) This Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was US$139.3 billion.

In other words, the last round of market prices began to reach the lowest point after the adoption of ETF, and a total of US$7.3 billion in stablecoins was issued. In the past month or so, an additional US$11 billion has been issued in stablecoins. There was a significant growth rate last week, with an additional US$3.7 billion in stablecoins being issued.

For the mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC, USDT has increased from 82.9 billion US dollars to 102 billion US dollars since September 10, 2023, with an additional issuance of 191 billion US dollars. billion dollars. USDC increased from $26.1 billion to $30.2 billion, an increase of $3.9 billion. A real issuance theme for USDT.

2 Total market value of altcoins Analysis

In the above figure a) black represents the total market value of cryptocurrency b) green represents the total market value of cryptocurrency after excluding BTC and ETH c) orange Represents the total market value of USDT. From the above figure, we can intuitively see:

1) Since the bottom in September 23, BTC+ The growth of ETH's total market capitalization is significantly faster than that of other altcoins, and it is exceeded most of the time. So, first of all, congratulations to those who hold large positions in BTC and ETH. Secondly, if your current income cannot beat BTC and ETH, don’t doubt yourself. Don’t look at the people all over the Internet who are promoting their earnings dozens of times, but the actual overall income of the altcoins lags behind that of BTC and ETH.

2) When we observe the increase in the market value of USDT, it is obvious that the increase rate is slower than the increase rate of cryptocurrency. There are two reasons for this. 1) It is because ETF funds and U.S. dollar funds, mainly coinbase, are also like this. 2) The more the market rises, the more people in the market adopt the strategy of holding positions. Therefore, it does not require a large amount of funds to pull the market.

3 ETF Data Analysis

Judging from ETF data, as of March 8,ETFs held BTC net assets of US$55 billion. Cumulative net inflows were US$9.5 billion, compared with US$11 billion in additional issuance of stablecoins. Therefore, the capital inflow of stablecoins still exceeds the capital inflow of ETFs and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the currency circle. However, we know that the ETF funds are only used to purchase BTC. Stablecoin funding also includes other altcoins. Therefore, ETF funds are more dominant in the rise of BTC.

From the above relationship between the price and the net inflow of ETF, it can be clearly seen that ETF has a very strong coupling with the price of BTC . Around January 20, when there was a net outflow, BTC was in a state of bottoming out. When there is net inflow, BTC is in a rising state. That said, U.S. ETF funding dominates BTC’s price factors.

4 Trends of US funds and Asian funds

From the past month, from various time zones Judging from its contribution to the rise of BTC. From the beginning, the U.S. time zone has been in the leading position, that is, the United States is the largest driving force for BTC, while Asian funds have made a relatively small contribution to BTC. But starting on March 6, U.S. funds showed signs of retreat, and BTC fell by 15% in the U.S. time zone. The main body of the market pull has become Asian funds.

And judging from the accumulation of the past month, the contribution of Asian funds to the rise of BTC has far exceeded that of the United States. Historically, Asian funds haven't lasted very long, so this may not be a very good sign.

5 BTC Large Account Data Analysis

In the past month or so, the stock of BTC on exchanges has been in a declining stage, from 2.363 million to 2.28 million, with a net outflow of 83,000. At the same time, the number of large investors holding more than 10,000 BTC fell by 1, and the number of large investors holding more than 1,000 BTC fell by 9, while the number of large investors holding 100 BTC increased by 190. Therefore, the net outflows from BTC exchanges are basically for large investors with about 100 positions. Judging from the data of the past week, the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, while the number of large households holding more than 10,000 BTC has not changed. The number of large holders holding 1,000 BTC has dropped significantly, with an overall decrease of about 50, while the number of large holders holding 100 BTC has increased by about 80.

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