Binance Launchpool new project, three ways to value ether.fi (ETHFI)

0xLoki

24-03-15 17:23

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Original author: 0xLoki, ABCDE researcher

Editor’s note: Ether.Fi is the largest liquidity re-pledge protocol on Ethereum, and its TVL has currently exceeded $2.2 billion. On March 12, according to the official announcement, Binance Launchpool launched ether.fi (ETHFI), and users can use BNB and FDUSD to mine ETHFI tokens. ABCDE researcher 0xLoki analyzed the ETHFI token price on X using three methods Forecast, BlockBeats reprints the full text as follows:

Note: This article only represents the personal views of the author of the original article and is for learning and communication only and does not provide investment advice.

ETHFI Valuation Analysis

Method 1: Use YT Estimation of transaction costs

First of all, we make a rough rounding of the deposit cycle and average TVL: According to the scoring TVL of 400,000 ETH * 120 days Calculated on a periodic basis, ETHFI on Pendle is calculated at an annualized rate of 40%.

If Pendle is priced reasonably, the opportunity cost of acquiring YT = 400000 * 120/360 *40% ≈ $213 million.

Based on the 6% airdrop calculation, the reasonable market value = 1.94 billion U.S. dollars, approximately $3.55 per currency.

Considering that ETHFI is the first LRD family bucket to be listed on BN, and before the official announcement, the price of ether.fi’s YT on Pendle was higher than For other YTs, there is reason to believe that Money, who bought YT at that time, was smarter and had many other characteristics (such as being the first to go to a major law firm and having a good project background).

Taking into account the market, FOMO sentiment and the new currency effect, and YT Buyer cannot just recover its capital, 3.5 will be a conservative estimate.

Note: EL points are not considered, so EL points and risk premiums are hedged for the time being

Method 2: Calculate the necessary yield rate for mining BNB and fdUSD

The boss of @BTW0205 gave the details According to the calculation, the reasonable valuation given is 4.5-7U, but: (1) The quota allocated to Launchpool is 2%, and the shares of other parts are relatively large, and the points mining participating accounts are as high as 75,266, and the chips are relatively scattered. (2) The price of BNB has increased significantly, the frequency of new releases has increased, and the base for calculating market value will also change.

So my estimate will be a little more cautious, and the upper limit of the reasonable valuation will be 6U.

Method 3: Comparative analysis

Lido is currently US$38.4 billion TVL + US$2.6 billion Market value, TVL market value ratio is about 14.7x, ether.fi is about 3.2 billion US dollars in TVL, and the corresponding circulating market value is 217 million US dollars, which is about 1.88 US dollars based on the initial circulation of 115.2 million US dollars.

However, considering that TVL and market capitalization do not grow at a uniform rate, $1.88 is also an undervalued price. 3.55 represents an 88% premium over 1.88, which is within a reasonable range.

To sum up, it is expected that the reasonable opening price range of ETHFI is $3.5-6

Attachment: etherfi dune data panel: https://dune.com/maybeYonas/etherfi