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June Crypto Market Outlook: The election may be the main narrative in the near future, and Solana is expected to break new highs with the help of ETH ETF

雨中狂睡

24-06-03 11:31

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Original author: Rain in the Wild Sleep

Hello everyone, June Outlook is here.

After doing enough additions in the monthly content, I want to try the effect of subtraction this time. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some time nodes (catalysts) of specific events.

It seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money in this cycle. $WIF is a little better, and the price fluctuations of $PEPE are actually quite large. Few people really eat the whole process. There are also fundamental coins that perform well, but they are relatively few, just a few, such as $PENDLE. If you want to select the hot words of the year, PVP will definitely be one of them.

So how to do it?

Here are some of my personal ideas:

1. Fundamentals and community

Are fundamentals important? I think it is very important.

I think the current fundamentals should refer to the ability to "attract market attention". The current fundamentals are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL speech and narrative/catalyst, and whether it can meet the core needs of the market. You need to look at a target more comprehensively.

For example, $PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle's indicators in these aspects are great. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was because Pendle catered to the LSD narrative. This year, Pendle was deeply involved in the LRT narrative, which pushed the price to continue to rise. This coordination with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.

I also participate in the Pendle community, and Pendle has done a good job in community stickiness and product education. For example, @PendleIntern is a great account. Users who are really interested in Pendle products can learn some strategies through the Intern account, so as to develop a plan that is more suitable for their financial situation.

I won’t talk much about the marketing aspect. There are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter. You can search for them. These marketing contents can be summarized in one sentence: there are few blind calls, and most of them are short articles, threads and prints based on logic, data and products.

When doing most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.

2. Information transmission

It is important to know which layer of information transmission you are in.

3. Market sentiment

Learn to observe market sentiment. The specific method is to go deep into the community, observe the comments of community members/community KOLs, and go to Twitter to see the comments of those smart money at the high/low points of market sentiment.

You can build an information flow that belongs to you and observe the market sentiment at key time nodes.

Look back at the market sentiment in early May. Does it have that flavor?

Tips: You can go to Douyin to check it out.

In addition, remember to observe your own emotional ups and downs.

4. Practice prediction

It has been mentioned in many articles introducing GCR, so I won’t go into details here. You can search for it.

Next, let’s talk about the targets I am more optimistic about:

1. ETH ETF

ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. In addition to leverage, the best Beta of ETH is those with ETH in the name, such as $ETHFI $ENS. ($ENA I won’t recommend, $ETC is one, but the reduction event is over). $LDO Although I have a position, and the fundamentals and circulation conditions are good, considering its performance some time ago, I will not recommend it (even if it has recovered recently).

Of course, the same is true for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into details here.

For memes, in addition to $PEPE, you can look at $MOG, which is a meme that is shouted more overseas.

For ETH DeFi, I will consider $MKR. The catalyst for $MKR in the future is: split + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the cooperation between MakerDAO and Ethena).

As for Beta, you can wait until ETH really starts to rise before chasing it.

Let’s talk more about Layer2.

1. BaseChain

I ambushed $DEGEN on Base. As for whether it can make money, it will take time to verify. You can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain after Coinbase launches the smart wallet. For projects that can bring cash flow to the project party in the long term, we should always pay attention.

Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector on it (such as Aavegotchi). Aavegotchi's Layer3 built on Base will launch the mainnet in Q2 this year. It may be this month.

2. Arbitrum

The Arbitrum community's "200 million ARB game catalyst plan" proposal vote should be passed. This is definitely good for Arbitrum's gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).

$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22, TreasureDAO has launched the Layer3 testnet and is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 this year, which supports staking.

In addition, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero's coin issuance and v3 upgrade (this impression has been hyped several times), and there is a possibility of a short-term rise (I am unlikely to participate).

2. AI

In the AI sector, we will only talk about two targets with confirmed date catalysts:

$FET

The merger will occur on 6.11/6.13, and it will be renamed $ASI.

$AR

$AO related information will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.

Personally, I am more optimistic about $AR.

There are many other AI sector coins, so I will not repeat them one by one. The market sentiment of the AI sector will change according to changes in the external environment. However, I will not consider participating in $WLD.

3. Political Meme

On-chain political meme I only participated in $MAGA. I bought it at 35 yesterday and plan to hold it again. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing of 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming soon).

The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE. I will set a market value target of 1 billion US dollars for $PEOPLE.

For such tokens with large price fluctuations, my outlook articles will have some lag. Therefore, after seeing Trump speak out to compete for Crypto voters, or the unexpected passage of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become the mainstream narrative of the market. Enter earlier.

Fourth, can Solana break through the new high?

Initially, my idea was that $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (bloodsucking).

Now I have changed my mind: Solana is a memecoin casino (referring to those celebrity memes, most people will choose to issue memecoin on Solana), and the current market has a rigid demand for memecoin gambling.

Therefore, I think $SOL will not be sucked too much blood during this period - the current population of $ETH and $SOL has been divided, and people who play $SOL will not easily migrate to $ETH. On the contrary, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations and push market sentiment to a high point, and Solana will be the beneficiary.

V. Others

1. Selfchain Mainnet

I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I won’t watch it.

2. Fantom Sonic

At present, Fantom’s launch of the Sonic mainnet is a Sell News for $FTM speculators. Always pay attention to AC’s subsequent actions. The chain is out, so we have to do something on it (my expectation).

3. Uniswap’s “Startup Fee Mechanism” vote

has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is putting pressure on Uniswap. I will keep a certain attention to this matter (as a melon eater), but $UNI is unlikely to participate in the speculation.