The cryptocurrency market has been turbulent in the past week. The mainstream value coins have been falling for a long time. In addition, the serial liquidation of CRV and the ZK airdrop have caused panic. Today, as Bitcoin fell below $65,000, the cryptocurrency market once again ushered in "519".

Even Ethereum, which has ETF expectations, can't escape the disaster. According to OKX market data, Ethereum fell below $3,400, a 24-hour drop of 6.23%. SOL, which relies on meme narratives to go viral, is also difficult to return to its high point under this market. As the market fell below $140, it fell 7.23% in 24 hours.

What followed was a general decline in altcoins following the broader market. Among them, WLD, a major target of AI speculation, fell below $3, a 24-hour drop of 16.3%. According to incomplete statistics from BlockBeats, most altcoins fell by more than 20%, such as IO fell 25.85% in 24 hours; USTC fell 24.27% in 24 hours; KNC fell 23.39% in 24 hours; BB fell 23% in 24 hours; NOT fell 22.4% in 24 hours.

According to Coinglass data, the entire network had a liquidation of US$318 million in the past 24 hours, of which long orders were liquidated for US$270 million and short orders were liquidated for US$48.1062 million. The total market value of cryptocurrencies also fell. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value fell to $2.45 trillion, a 24-hour drop of 4.4%.

Why did it fall again?

This year's market is unpredictable, memes disrupt market sentiment, and the market has alternated between bull and bear, which has also blinded analysts. However, the outflow of Bitcoin ETFs is still the main reason for this decline.

Since last week, Bitcoin ETFs have shown a net outflow. According to Farside Investors data, as of June 15, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of US$580.6 million.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, yesterday, 9 US Bitcoin spot ETFs reduced their holdings by 3,169 BTC, of which Fidelity reduced its holdings by 1,224 BTC (-US$80.34 million) and currently holds 171,529 BTC (US$11.25 billion). Grayscale reduced its holdings by 936 BTC (-US$61.4 million) and currently holds 281,212 BTC (US$18.45 billion).

If ETF is the treasure pot of this round of bull market, most of the funds it attracts are still in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The crypto world led by Ethereum still relies on value coins and memes. The trend of value coins in this round of market can be described as "downward", which is not as good as the leader PEPE in the front and the rising star WIF in the back. The celebrity coin MOTHER even makes Ethereum "break the defense".

And the entire crypto circle seems to have no new money entering the market. It can be seen from the market value of crypto stablecoins that the market value has been maintained at around US$160 billion for a long time. According to coinmarketcap data, the market value reached US$162.6 billion at the time of writing, with a 24-hour decline of 0.05%.

Not only is there no new money, but funds seem to have flowed into other technology assets, including Nvidia (NVDA.O), which hit a new high and surpassed Apple ($3.00 trillion) in market value on June 5. It rose by more than $140 billion on Wednesday alone, and in the past nine trading days, the market value rose by more than $100 billion on four trading days.

ETH performs poorly, will the meme continue to grow?

The first "519" this year was after Bitcoin broke through $69,000 to set a record high. At that time, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 overnight, causing more than 10 billion U.S. dollars in liquidation across the network, and the Bitcoin volatility index once reached 78.81, close to the highest value in a year. But at that time, the daily trading volume of the Bitcoin ETF set a record of $10 billion, and that pullback can also be considered a normal retracement after the record high.

Related reading: "Bitcoin plummeted by $10,000 after reaching a record high. Is a sharp correction a sign of a bull market? "

The second time happened two months ago when Bitcoin was halved. At that time, the entire network was liquidated for $935 million, but the Bitcoin retracement was not very serious, only less than 10%. It was just that the altcoins led by ETH were almost all spared, and the crypto market was bloodbathed.

Related reading: "Altcoins ushered in the "new 519". Which is the main reason for the turbulent situation and the tax deadline? 》

Although the market has experienced a general decline several times, the previous two pullbacks did not affect the overall bullish market sentiment, but this time analysts seem to be shaken.

On June 14, according to CoinDesk, despite the strong U.S. stock market and favorable U.S. cryptocurrency policies, traders expect Bitcoin (BTC) prices to have a deeper correction in the coming weeks, mainly due to miners' selling activities and general profit-taking. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, believes that "a new wave of strength in the dollar and demand for stocks are emerging. The demand for risky assets is gradually decreasing, forming a trend of Bitcoin's intraday highs that are constantly falling."

"Bitcoin continues to test the strength of the 50-day moving average, but cannot find enough reasons to fall further. Such continuous testing of lows allows shorts to succeed quickly, with the next target at $60,000," he added.

Some observers say that miners, who provide a large amount of computing resources to keep the Bitcoin network running, may be one of the selling groups. "The increasing net outflow of Bitcoin from miners does not necessarily put pressure on Bitcoin prices. However, prices tend to stagnate," the analyst added.

In addition, the expectations for Ethereum ETH do not seem to be enough for analysts to be optimistic about Ethereum.

On June 12, Matrixport officially issued a document status that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been on a clear downward trend since the merger of the PoW and PoS chains in September 2022. Although Ethereum occasionally surpassed Bitcoin for a short period of time, this situation did not last. As the exchange rate pair approaches the top of the downward channel, ETH may perform poorly again.

As for the biggest hype gimmick meme coin of this cycle, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expressed optimism. Arthur Hayes said that the Dogecoin ETF may be launched at the end of this cycle, and said that his prediction is based on the substantial growth rate of dog-themed meme coins over the years.

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, also agreed with Arthur Hayes' prediction that the Dogecoin ETF will appear at the end of the market cycle. He expressed strong support for a Dogecoin ETF and discussed the possibility with Jan van Eck, CEO of investment management firm and spot Bitcoin ETF provider VanEck.

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