The market value of the crypto market has fallen by $2.2 trillion in the past two days, and the currency circle has ushered in a new anniversary.

After Bitcoin fell below $57,000 yesterday, it fell below $55,000 today, and Ethereum fell below $3,000. The crypto market fell across the board, with ETH and SOL falling by 9% in 24 hours, and popular targets such as OP, AVAX, WLD, and ENS falling by more than 15%. A large number of new coins such as AEVO, ZK, W, REZ, SAGA, OMNI, and IO plummeted by more than 20%, hitting a new low since listing, and the market value and FDV shrank significantly.

According to Coinglass data, the entire network had a liquidation of $588 million in the past 24 hours, of which long orders were liquidated by $509 million and short orders were liquidated by $78.4273 million.

The sharp drop in Bitcoin has triggered large-scale liquidations on and off the chain. According to Coingalss data, based on the current mainstream CEX contract positions, if Bitcoin falls to around $55,000, it is estimated that CEX contracts will have $620 million in long orders liquidated. According to PeckShieldAlert monitoring, the whale address starting with 0x95c5 has been liquidated for 24.64 BTC, equivalent to about $1.41 million; the whale address starting with 0xc26b has been liquidated for about 173,230 cETH (worth about $10.7 million). According to Lookonchain monitoring, the health rate of a whale address's lending position on Compound has dropped to 1.02. His 12,734 ETH (about $38.77 million) is on the verge of liquidation.

It is already at the bottom, but there is always a reason for the decline

Although the market downturn has lasted for a month, the crypto community has accepted that the current stage is a "long correction bottom", but the incentives for continued decline still exist.

The first is the selling pressure of 140,000 bitcoins in Mentougou. Yesterday, multiple Mt.Gox wallets were detected to participate in small transfer tests. This morning, 47,228 BTC (about 2.7 billion US dollars) were transferred from Mentougou Mt.Gox to the address starting with 1L7Xbx. This operation caused Bitcoin, which had already fallen by more than 5%, to fall again, directly hitting the support position of 55,000 US dollars.

However, Willy Chuang, COO of WOO X, is optimistic about this. He believes that Mt. Gox's transfer of 47,228 BTC, marking the beginning of its repayment process, has sparked some market panic as there is a possibility of a large potential sell-off. Various factors such as German BTC sales, Federal Reserve issues, and uncertainty about the US election have exacerbated this panic. However, it is worth noting that despite these concerns, the long-term impact may not be that severe as the market will gradually absorb these selling pressures.

According to Mt. Gox's 2023 data report, the actual amount of selling is much lower than the total amount, because many creditors have sold their claims to the fund due to the long compensation period. Therefore, it is mainly institutional entities that hold these claims, and only 226 creditors hold more than 50% of Mt. Gox's claims. Market panic in the short term is expected, but in the long run, these negative factors may gradually dissipate.

Then there is the "dumping" of the German and US governments. In early June, wallets marked as "German Government" began to transfer 50,000 BTC previously seized from the pirated movie website operator Movie2k to the trading platform, and sold about 4,736 bitcoins in batches that month. In the past week, the German government has sold more than 2,000 bitcoins. Just after the market fell yesterday morning, the German government was monitored to transfer 13,475 bitcoins and had sold 13,00 bitcoins. As of now, the German government still holds more than 40,000 bitcoins.

In addition, the US government's BTC holding wallet, which has not been moved for a year, also sent 4,000 BTC to Coinbase on June 27, suspected of starting the coin selling mode. Yesterday afternoon, the "US government" wallet address (starting with 349c6) was monitored to transfer 237 BTC to the address starting with bc1qvc.

Bitcoin volatility is close to a new low since February. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, wrote in a report: "The current dynamics of the cryptocurrency market are characterized by low volatility and weak trading volume. When prices begin to move toward the edge of the range, the order book will be out of balance."

On the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETFs are an important reference for judging the direction of the market. According to Farside Investors data, Bitcoin ETFs have had net outflows for two consecutive days, with a total outflow of US$34.2 million in two days.

In addition, the lack of new funds entering the market is also an important reason why the market is difficult to meet market expectations.

The total market value of stablecoins in the crypto market has been growing steadily since the middle of last year, and the overall market at that time continued to rise, with obvious signs of a bearish turn to bullish. However, since the beginning of May, there has been no new money entering the crypto market, and the market value of stablecoins has been hovering around $160 billion for more than two months. In the absence of sufficient liquidity in the market, there is no buying power to drive the market up.

Sentiment continues to be depressed, is it time to buy?

A week ago, Bitcoin hit $58,000. A week later, Bitcoin fell to this level again. Is it a correction or the end of the bull market? The market has different views.

From the technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of Bitcoin on the 4-hour line and the daily line has shown a bottom divergence. This means that the price of Bitcoin may have fallen too much in the short term, and today's downward selling pressure is not as strong as on June 24, so there may be a rebound.

Market sentiment is too pessimistic. Is it time to buy? According to the analysis of crypto KOL Ignas, indicates that the price of Bitcoin is being artificially depressed, and retail investors and investment managers are being induced to sell for risk aversion through deceptive sell orders from whales.

Just yesterday, CryptoQuant released a report stating that for most of the time since the halving, Bitcoin miners have been paid "extremely low", and transaction fee income has dropped to only 3.2% of total daily income, the lowest share in three months. After insufficient incentives, miners will begin to "surrender" one after another, shut down poorly performing equipment, and start selling Bitcoin to hedge risks, which historically usually means that Bitcoin will show a bottom signal.

But there are also various signals suggesting that Bitcoin may continue to fall.

Looking at the net flow of Bitcoin ETFs, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said in his latest report that the average entry price of Bitcoin ETF buyers is estimated to be $60,000 to $61,000. Therefore, when Bitcoin falls below $60,000 today, it may trigger a wave of ETF liquidations, further lowering the price of Bitcoin.

For example, Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin's weekly and monthly reversal indicators foreshadow a broader correction, and its price may further correct to $55,000. Andrew Kang, co-founder of crypto venture capital firm Mechanism Capital, sees a lower bottom and believes that Bitcoin may experience an extreme correction to the $40,000 range.

The market remains confident about the long-term price of Bitcoin. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin may hit a record high in August and reach $100,000 by the time of the US presidential election in November. Analysts at the bank expect Trump's victory to push up Bitcoin prices, while maintaining the target prices of $150,000 and $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year and 2025, respectively. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee also insisted on his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $150,000.

"It's too hard to make money" and "I'm sorry for my family" are discussions that often appear in the community this month. For retail investors, this bull market is really too difficult.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia