Original title: Political Pivot On Blockchain

Original author: Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital;

Original translation: 0xjs, Golden Finance

Former US president and other presidential candidates will speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

This is really a huge change.

Multiple branches of the US government have long been very opposed to blockchain.

I never understood why the opposition was there. Who is the opponent? I mean, who besides Senator Warren would vote against providing financial inclusion to everyone on the planet who has a smartphone? It doesn't make sense at all.

93 million Americans own cryptocurrencies. They voted. Former President Trump's remarks on May 5 changed everything.

In just two weeks, the market probability of the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF rose from 6% to 100%.

The Watergate scandal taught us a hard lesson. HR Haldeman warned White House Counsel John Dean not to do this because he observed:

“Once the toothpaste is out of the tube, it’s hard to squeeze it back in.”

I feel the same way about blockchain. Satoshi invented it.

Some regulators racked their brains to try to squeeze it back into the tube. They eventually gave up. The toothpaste was out forever.

Once the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF, they effectively admitted that Ethereum is not a security. A U.S. District Court ruled that XRP is not a security (for the most part). It’s over.

I do want to commend the agencies that acted early. In 2014, the CFTC sent a commissioner to my home in Lake Tahoe for our second Blockchain Summit. They hold public hearings and have been studying futures for seven years. The IRS ruled in 2013 that blockchain is property, not currency, and therefore eligible for long-term capital gains tax treatment for holders. They should be commended for getting early and getting it right on blockchain regulation.

The Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville this week was a showcase for our industry. After promoting blockchain at some very small events in the early days, I decided to attend the conference - to give Bitcoin a little more of a push. I'll be speaking at the conference on Friday the 26th.

IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST

JOURNALIST:  “I remember you saying that cryptocurrency was a ‘scam’ and a ‘disaster waiting to happen.’ And you were right, by the way. There is a disaster and a fraud.”

TRUMP:  “I’ve always been right.”

JOURNALIST:  “But recently, you’ve started embracing the community. You said Bitcoin should be made in America. So tell me why you changed your mind.”

TRUMP:  “Because the answer is very similar. If we don’t, China will take it, China will have it — or someone else, but most likely China. China is very interested in it. And it’s not going away. It’s amazing. I’ve met a lot of people — even at the meeting in San Francisco [Trump June 6

“Now, if I throw it aside, other countries will pick it up, most likely China – they’re pretty advanced in this space. So, you have to think about it – what I want, again, is what’s good for the country. If we don’t do this…”

— Interview with Donald Trump, Bloomberg Businessweek, July 16, 2024

To distill it down to its essence – this is actually true.

No matter how much policymakers hype it up, blockchain is not going to go away. It’s just going to go to the Bahamas, China or some shit. This suppression has a negative impact on the US and the constituency of these regulators, the retail investors/voters.

US Presence: Crypto Regulation vs. Internet Regulation

The previous stance on crypto asset regulation was diametrically opposed to the rest of the internet.

The US government did build the internet (ARPANET, which celebrated the 50th anniversary of TCP/IP last year). It subsequently gave early internet companies a host of congressional advantages. In particular, the US gave them regulatory safe harbors and an 8.25% discount to their brick-and-mortar competitors by exempting them from sales tax. The result is that all of the world’s largest internet companies are in the US (or are essentially Chinese clones).

So far in the blockchain era, the US regulatory approach has had the opposite effect. It has scared 95% of blockchain trading into moving to opaque companies like the Bahamas and FTX rather than being regulated in the US. Similarly, 93% of blockchain protocol market capitalization comes from projects based outside the US.

Common interests

I like this paragraph. Literally, the next words out of his mouth in the above sentence are:

"The other thing is, I did this NFT thing and stuff. I noticed that 80% of the money was paid in crypto. It was incredible. So, NFTs were very successful. We had a year to sell it out, and it sold out in one day. All sold out: 45,000 cards. I've done it three times, and I'm going to do it again because people want me to do it again. The spirit is incredible. It's beautiful. But what I really noticed was that everything was paid in crypto, in this new currency. It was an eye-opener for me.

"So we have a great foundation. It's still a baby. It's still in its infancy. But I don't want another country to take over this space. So I think we're going to do well. Also, I've met the people in the industry, and they're top-notch people. If you ask Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon used to be very negative, and now he's suddenly changed his attitude."

– Donald Trump Interview, Bloomberg Businessweek, July 16, 2024

Who would have thought? Our interests are aligned! He’s selling digital assets. I’m (investing in and eventually) selling digital assets. Wow.

I think this is the most underappreciated development in the market today. It would be a huge shift to have a president whose interests are aligned with the crypto community. It’s a huge shift to go from aggressive negativity to positivity.

As a visual symbol of this sea change, Pantera portfolio company Bitwise will ring the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

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