Original title: Arthur Hayes talks election and Bitcoin: "Trump or Harris, it doesn't matter"

Original author: Trista Kelley, DL News

Original translation: Ismay, BlockBeats

Editor's note: Arthur Hayes deeply explored the current situation and future direction of the cryptocurrency field, analyzed the impact that Trump and his policy tendencies may have on the cryptocurrency field, and emphasized how different political leaders affect the future development of cryptocurrency. He also talked about the impact of large financial institutions such as BlackRock entering the crypto market. He believes that whether the cryptocurrency market can still maintain its original intention and avoid leaning towards the centralization of the traditional financial system has become a problem worthy of attention. In addition, Hayes expressed extremely high expectations for the future trend of Bitcoin prices, believing that the great changes in the global monetary system will greatly push up the value of Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes' first job was on the trading floor of Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. The day he started in September 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. He was 22.

The days of adrenaline-fuelled trades and million-dollar bonuses came to an abrupt end.

Young traders with a risk appetite like Hayes were swept away by an onslaught of regulation, compliance departments and a stuffy office culture.

Then he discovered cryptocurrencies.

“When I read the Bitcoin whitepaper, it really struck a chord with me about real philosophy — like the corrupt banking system and how much bullshit it is,” he told DL News.

Fast forward a decade — a process that has included co-founding the BitMEX cryptocurrency trading platform, reaching billionaire status, and a guilty plea and probation in the US — and the crypto industry is beginning to look more and more like the banking industry he left.

Financial giants including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton now offer retail investors low-cost, secure ways to invest in cryptocurrencies.

Fidelity Investments wants to include Bitcoin in U.S. pension plans.

It’s still old business, Hayes said.

“It still maintains a really diverse group vibe, these people are from all over the world, they’re either from finance or technology. They want different things,” Hayes said last week from his office in Singapore.

“They want something that has unlimited upside, obviously super volatile, and if you’re not diligent, you’ll get washed out very quickly. But at least has the ability to generate extreme product usage or extreme wealth.”

Hayes has the credibility of a crypto veteran.

He has also become one of the most prolific and widely followed market commentators, covering crypto and beyond.

Hayes chatted with DL News before Monday’s market crash to talk about the election, the financial industry’s embrace of crypto, and his thoughts on the price of bitcoin.

On the election:

AH: They think Trump is saying the right thing, so he’s going to make things happen faster. Whether it's Trump or Harris, it doesn't matter.

DLN: Why?

AH: Yes, cryptocurrencies donate a lot of money. But I don't think your donations have reached the level of companies like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Goldman Sachs.

And if you think about who works at these institutions, it's the people who come from these banks.

So, while it would be great if Trump was elected and he did all these things, I think he would probably run into the same problems he had in his first term.

You can say all these nice things and try all these policies, but if the entire government apparatus is against them, nothing will get done.

On Bitcoin and Monetary Policy:

AH: Whether it's a Trump administration or a Harris administration, they're going to print money. They're going to do it in different ways, but money will still get printed.

So your crypto prices are going to go up – the path may be very tortuous, but at the end of the day, we know where it’s going to go.

About SEC Chairman Gary Gensler

DLN: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to be a big bogeyman in the industry. Do you resonate with these views?

AH: People confuse the symptom with the problem. You can listen to his lectures, he’s a very smart guy. But when he’s in government office, he’s a complete fool.

It's just politics. You can replace him with someone else. Gary Gensler is not the problem, and the SEC is not the problem.

Firing Gary Gensler will change nothing if a set of regulations you were originally unhappy with are still in place because your elected representatives chose to consider other things instead of creating a framework for cryptocurrencies.

People make a fuss about Gary Gensler, but he is irrelevant.

About the Bitcoin Reserve Plan

AH: I almost think it can't be done even if Trump is elected.

You would need a critical mass of people to vote for this plan if it would somehow negatively impact the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve System or maintain visibility in the U.S. fiscal markets.

DLN: Even if this plan can't be done, do you think it's a good idea?

AH: Oh, that's a great idea. The US should weaken the dollar at the end of the day and buy Bitcoin and gold, that will solve a lot of their problems.

They will weaken the dollar and the value of Bitcoin and gold will go up.

Do I think the US government will actively try to acquire Bitcoin?

I doubt it, they will buy gold before buying Bitcoin.

But it's the same deal, it's the same motivation for us to do it.

On BlackRock's move into crypto

AH: The whole point of crypto is that there are no barriers to entry.

An institution like BlackRock should be able to use Bitcoin, and people in the Philippines who don't have financial services should be able to use crypto.

Is the incentive structure strong enough? Is the game theory and all that stuff behind the way blockchain works enough to ensure that centralization doesn’t happen — and if it does, are there consequences?

I’ve written about this a little bit, like they’ll take all the Bitcoins and ossify the network, that kind of thing, right?

In theory, yes, that could happen, but it’s still an open competitive market.

If you own a BlackRock product, you own a crypto derivative, you don’t own the crypto — BlackRock owns your crypto.

So BlackRock's product is a sexy product to people because it's simple, but it's not a cryptocurrency either.

On the price of Bitcoin

AH: The price of Bitcoin in this cycle is going to be very, very high. It could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, even $1 million.

There's so much debt that needs to be rolled over, and we're entering a period where the global monetary system is going to completely change.

We don't know what it's going to look like, but the people who have benefited the most from the last 80 years are going to be very resistant to change.

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