Original title: "Market tension hits in September, and the trend is heavily dependent on data"

Original source: BitpushNews

The crypto market continued to fall on Tuesday.

Bitpush data showed that Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $59,840 in the early hours of Tuesday, but fell back to the $57,500 support level after midday, and then rebounded. As of press time, BTC traded at $57,901, a 24-hour drop of 2%.

Ethereum fell 3% to $2,456, the lowest level since early February. Most altcoins were in the red, with only more than 20 of the top 200 tokens rising.

Flux (FLUX) rose 18.6%, followed by UMA (UMA) and Sui (SUI), which rose 6.9% and 5.7%, respectively. LayerZero (ZRO) fell the most, down 9.3%, DOGS (DOGS) fell 8.4%, and Pendle (PENDLE) fell 7%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.04 trillion, and Bitcoin has a market share of 56.4%.

U.S. stocks and gold are both on a downward trend. As of the close, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 2.12%, 1.51% and 3.26%, respectively.

Historically, financial markets usually perform poorly in September, as traders await the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, several key data points that may affect the trajectory of the rate cut, and the countdown to the US presidential election in November.

Key US economic data are released one after another

The latest US economic data has rekindled concerns about a recession. The ISM August Manufacturing PMI report released on Tuesday morning showed that the US economy continued to shrink, with the actual value of 47.2, lower than the expected value of 47.5 and 46.8 in July, new orders fell from 47.4 in July to 44.6, while prices paid rose from 52.9 to 54.0.

According to FedWatch data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), affected by the weak data, traders raised the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to 39% from 30% a day ago. However, the favorite bet is still 25 basis points, with a probability of 61%.

The most important macro data (and likely the ultimate determinant of whether the Fed cuts rates by 25 or 50 basis points) remains Friday’s August jobs report, with economists forecasting a rebound to 160,000 jobs from 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3%.

“The market seems to be very sensitive to any data right now,” said Chief Technical Strategist Larry Tentarelli. “We have become a very data-dependent market.”

BTC Follows Structural Patterns of Past Cycles

“Bitcoin has been following the structural patterns of past cycles very closely,” noted TradingView analyst TradingShot, who analyzed “sequences similar to cyclical fractals.”

TradingShot said: "BTC followed the exact path we drew and fulfilled expectations, breaking through the 1W MA100 (green trendline in the figure above). Since the price has basically been in a consolidation state for the past 6 months (bull flag/downward channel), it is time to revisit this chart and see what happens next."

The analyst explained: "After some modifications, we can see that after successfully defending the 1W MA50 in the test in early August, the price should start a new parabolic rebound (green arc in the figure above) (relative to the past 2 cycles). We are 147 weeks (1029 days) from the top of the previous cycle and 21 weeks (147 days) from the halving. In the past cycles, this was the exact time when Bitcoin began to rise sharply (at the "we are here" mark in the figure above). In all cases, the 1W MA50 , so now the market's goal is to keep it unchanged so that buyers do not lose the psychological support level. If this level holds, breaking through 100,000 should be the minimum expectation, especially before the interest rate cut cycle starts this month and the US election in November (the market is traditionally bullish after the election).

As for the near-term expectations, market analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that historically, September has always been a negative return month for Bitcoin.

Rekt Capital warned: "If Bitcoin also sees a historically common 7% drop in September this year...that means Bitcoin will fall to around $55,000 again."

Original link

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia