Original title: 《The Secret to Winning in Crypto (from a Top Investor) - Alliance Founding Partner | EP86》
Guest: Qiao Wang, Founding Partner of Alliance DAO
Original translation: zhouzhou, Ismay, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: In this podcast, Qiao delves into the necessary qualities of great founders and investors, emphasizing the importance of persistence and unique insights in the crypto industry. He shares his investment strategy, analyzes the difference between investing and trading, and his optimism about Solana. In addition, Qiao summarizes the key qualities that stand out in the Alliance DAO accelerator.

The following core issues are raised and discussed in this podcast:

1. Key qualities to be a great founder and investor

2. Qiao’s personal investment strategy

3. Predictions for the future crypto market

TL;DR:

Key qualities to be a great founder and investor:Qiao emphasizes persistence, unique market insights, and a high level of integrity as the key to success. At the same time, he points out that autistic traits have advantages in crypto founders, enabling them to demonstrate independent thinking and focus in a complex environment.

Personal Investment Strategy:Qiao explained his decision to sell Ethereum in favor of Solana, believing that Solana has greater potential, and also analyzed in depth the difference between investing and trading.

How to Stand Out in Alliance DAO:Founders must demonstrate a high level of independent thinking, focus, and problem-solving skills, and especially value teams that can reject conventional wisdom and stick to their own ideas.

Future Outlook of Crypto Market:Qiao mentioned his prediction for the price of Bitcoin in the next 12 months, and he also said that the market's sentiment and volatility will be significantly affected in the election year.

Work-Health Balance: He shared his views on health and work, believing that while work can be stressful, social interaction is essential for longevity. At the same time, fitness and sleep are the keys to his health and work efficiency.

The following is the original dialogue (the original content has been deleted and reorganized for easier reading and understanding):

Personal Experience

Kevin: Is there any unique story in your childhood? Is there any special experience that can explain your success today?

Qiao Wang: I was born in a good family. Although my family was not well off, my parents told me that they would definitely send me to college. It was my first luck to meet such a family. The second luck was to meet my wife, who really understands and supports me. She has her own career and ambitions, but also takes good care of me and my children.

Kevin: Do you think you can go far on your own?

Qiao Wang: I think what really made me go further was some childhood experiences. Due to the limitations of my family, I couldn't take so many risks, although I had taken more risks than ordinary people, such as entering the cryptocurrency field very early. But I always wanted to take more, but the family's financial situation made me have to have some concerns.

Kevin: What stopped you? Was it some kind of psychological concern?

Qiao Wang: Yes, I would think if I started a business directly after graduating from college, what would happen to my parents? I couldn't let my parents down, so I chose a relatively stable job in the financial industry on Wall Street, and the salary was quite good at that age.

Kevin: What was your job at the time?

Qiao Wang: Quantitative trading mainly involves writing software for low-level distributed systems, which is actually why I later became interested in cryptocurrency. The advantage of quantitative trading is that it has statistical advantages, so the profits are relatively stable, which allowed me to make a lot of money when I was very young.
Kevin: You think you should thank your wife for providing you with a lot of support, right?

Qiao Wang：Yes, especially her psychological and financial support, which enabled me to devote myself to the field of cryptocurrency later, both from an investment and career perspective. I think risk tolerance has two aspects, one is your willingness to take risks, and the other is your ability to take risks. And I have always been willing to take risks, but what really enabled me to take risks was the support of my wife.

Kevin: You mentioned that your previous work in the financial field was your opportunity to enter the crypto industry. What initially attracted you to the world of cryptocurrency?

Qiao Wang：The volatility of the market was what attracted me initially. The moment I really understood the value proposition of cryptocurrency was when I was a trader. At that time, I was doing arbitrage through different gambling platforms. I particularly liked the low-risk, high-return trading strategy. It was these experiences that gradually made me realize the importance of cryptocurrency.

Kevin: You transferred a large sum of money to an offshore platform at that time. What does this have to do with cryptocurrency? Qiao Wang: I sent about $20,000 to several offshore gambling platforms, and the money was stuck in the banking system for half a year. That made me realize that I needed Bitcoin. When I finally got the money back, I immediately sent it to a bank in Japan, which was the bank behind the famous Mt. Gox at the time. Then the price of Bitcoin started to rise, and for many people, the first "magic moment" is to see the price rise and wealth increase. If I had entered the crypto field at the peak of the market in 2011 or 2014, I might have given up for several years. But I decided to go full-time in crypto in 2017, which was another peak. In fact, before 2017, most of my wealth was already in crypto, but in 2017, I decided to invest my career in it and started working at Messari.

What kind of developer team can succeed

Kevin: Last week, Thomas, the co-founder of Kamino, mentioned that you were one of their strongest supporters when Solana collapsed to $8. How did you know that Solana would rebound when everyone was depressed?

Qiao Wang:This reminds me of the Ethereum DAO hack in 2016, which led to the split of the Ethereum community, but a small number of developers remained passionate about Ethereum and continued to develop applications on it. This persistence makes me believe that Ethereum will survive the difficulties. Similarly, I saw a small group of Solana developers after the collapse of FTX, and their enthusiasm and persistence for Solana gave me confidence.

Kevin: As an investor and founder, are there similar moments that helped you build this belief and kept you on Solana after the FTX crash?

Qiao Wang:Of course, like Solana, Ethereum or Bitcoin, you can think of them as a "living organism" that can survive as long as the number of people participating in it reaches a certain "critical mass". I also saw a similar situation in the "civil war" of Bitcoin in 2017. In the end, the part of the Bitcoin core community persisted, and other forks, such as Bitcoin Cash or SegWit2x, failed to gain enough support.

Kevin: Does this mean that in a bear market, even if only a small number of users are enthusiastic about the product, it can eventually reach "escape velocity" and achieve success?

Qiao Wang:That's right. In a bear market, even if you only have 50 or 100 users, the support of these loyal users is enough to keep the project going and eventually achieve a breakthrough. Many of the projects we support have also experienced peaks and troughs. But even in the trough, they always have a small number of loyal users who really like their products. Even if the number of daily active users is declining, there may be only 10 to 100 users using it every day, but these core users allow the team to continue to iterate on the product. In the end, these projects reached "escape velocity" (that is, the product achieved large-scale success).

A successful example is the NFT market "Tensor". In the first one or two years, it only had about 100 to 1,000 users, and obviously not all of them were regular users. As an entrepreneur, you have a full year or two without growth and without enough market traction. What is your instinctive reaction at this time? Give up or turn? But in the end, their team persisted in their products and achieved a breakthrough.

Kevin:We tend to have a bias that high valuations in the crypto space should be accompanied by a large number of users because the way the industry is built makes people think this way. However, the fact is that even without a lot of users, you can still achieve breakthroughs in the future.

Qiao Wang:In Web 2, when you build a product, people often tell you that you should achieve 10% or 20% growth every week. But the truly successful products have a very smooth growth curve, like a gradually increasing exponential growth. In the crypto space, those products that are ultimately successful and loved by people almost never follow this growth trajectory. Their growth trajectory is more like a step-by-step, first growing, then remaining stable for a period of time, then ushering in a wave of explosive growth, and then entering a period of stability again.

For example, like Coinbase, they grow significantly in every bull market, and remain basically flat or even fall in bear markets. Most crypto products that support speculation are like this, which is determined by the nature of the crypto market. But even those that are not speculative in nature, like Farcaster, have experienced similar growth patterns. They have almost no growth for a long time, and then suddenly in December last year, the number of users increased 10 times, from 10,000 daily active users to 100,000.

Kevin: What kind of people do you think are great crypto investors?

Qiao Wang: To stand out in the primary market, you need to have a natural skepticism about the world, question the consensus, and think about which of the things people often say are wrong.

Kevin: If a person is naturally optimistic, he may be a better founder, because to be a great founder, you need to have an overly optimistic, even a bit delusional sense of self-confidence. And to be a great investor, you may need to be skeptical of everything, even a bit cynical. How do you think the two can be balanced?

Qiao Wang: Optimism and questioning consensus or independent thinking are two independent concepts. In fact, some of the best founders I have worked with are very contrarian and they also question consensus. Because the essence of entrepreneurship is to discover an insight into the market or users that others do not understand, and the first step in entrepreneurship is to understand what others do not understand. Therefore, the best founders and the best investors have the characteristics of contrarian thinking.

Kevin: Naval believes that in this era of unlimited leverage, judgment is the most important thing. He means that judgment is similar to wisdom and can foresee the long-term consequences of your actions. So how do you cultivate this judgment?

Qiao Wang：Cultivate through actual actions. As a trader, I learned through the "lessons" of the market. You must lose money first before you can learn how to make the right judgment. If you never take action, that is, investors never really "go on the field", then you will never learn. There are two best ways to learn, one is active humility, and the other is forced humility. You must improve your judgment through action.

Personal Investment Strategy

Kevin: So do you prefer investing or trading?

Qiao Wang:Both are fine. The key is to find the way you are good at.

Kevin: So what are the key skills required for short-term trading and long-term investment?

Qiao Wang:The core of both is to question the consensus. At the same time, trading is essentially a study of history. You have to analyze past patterns and look for those patterns that are statistically effective repeatedly. The advantage of short-term trading is that you can get feedback from the market very quickly. If you trade 10 times a day, you will have 300 trading samples in a month, and then you can evaluate whether your strategy is effective. It is difficult to get quick feedback for long-term investment, and you may have to wait for several years to know whether your investment is successful.

People often think that Buffett and Charlie Munger are value investors, but in fact, their strategies have evolved over the past 90 years. In the early days, Buffett focused on companies with low price-to-earnings ratios and low price-to-book ratios, looking for undervalued companies. After meeting Munger, his investment philosophy changed. Munger believes that investing in a good company at a reasonable price is much better than investing in an ordinary company at a low price. This is more like growth investment rather than traditional value investment. In the field of cryptocurrency, I think this idea is also applicable. You have to pay attention to protocols or tokens that grow over time, whether it is on-chain transaction volume, total value locked (TVL) or market attention.

Kevin: Do you think this growth investment strategy is more suitable for the cryptocurrency field?

Qiao Wang: Yes, especially in the crypto market, growth not only means financial growth, but also may include changes in narratives and increased market attention. Even if a project is not making much money now, if it has enough market attention and may get more attention in the future, then it is a project worth investing in. So, where will the money eventually flow? It's likely to flow to where it attracts the most attention, rather than where it's a good business based on rational analysis.

Like Lido, there are a lot of protocols that everyone thinks should perform well, but in fact they don't. The idea is actually very simple. Basically, people put their money into where they are most excited about the future, not necessarily the companies that are performing best at the moment.

The reason I had confidence in Solana at its lowest point was that I tried these products myself. I started using Solana's products in 2021, and I used them for about a year before the FTX collapse. At that time, these products were still very rough, but you know, you could execute transactions in about 100 milliseconds, very smoothly, and with very low fees. You can feel that the products in the Solana ecosystem are no longer limited by the blockchain.

We often say, why do you own an iPhone but don't own Apple stock? We always think we are looking for future products, future technologies. The same is true in investing, ask yourself, "What do I like?" The answer is actually right in front of you. I really like DeFi because you can experience these products yourself, and I think there are two real magic moments in the entire crypto field. The first is the experience when you send a Bitcoin transaction for the first time. The second is DeFi, because you can not only send payments, but you can trade in both directions.

Kevin: How do you deal with market cycles?

Qiao Wang: Most of my portfolio is Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Coinbase stock. Occasionally I will do some short-term trades. By short-term, I mean a period of several months, similar to narrative-driven trading, rather than medium- to long-term holding. So I bought certain assets very early, and most people may know that this is a short-term trade I made.

Kevin: What about the long term?

Qiao Wang：Long term, I looked at the top 300 tokens and looked at their supply and excess supply relative to market cap. Excess supply is the percentage of tokens that have been unlocked, which is a very important factor. I also look at whether these projects have real traction and user base. Ultimately, I think the tokens that meet these criteria are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and certain stablecoins.

Kevin：How do you allocate between these four assets?

Qiao Wang：I prefer Bitcoin and Solana. I think Ethereum is relatively overvalued. And from the unique data I have, more and more founders and entrepreneurs are choosing Solana instead of Ethereum. In terms of developer activity, Solana has more potential. Therefore, I have more allocations to Solana than Ethereum. As for Bitcoin, it is a pure PMF - the best value storage tool, an uncensorable value storage tool, and no project can challenge it in the near future.

Kevin: Do you adjust your investment strategy according to the market cycle? Or do you just stick to your core positions, such as the four major tokens, because you don't think you can outperform the market through short-term strategies, so you decide to hold these tokens for the long term?

Qiao Wang：I try to play the market cycles a little bit, but it's really hard. I've posted a tweet before about my experience with several cycles. In the first cycle, I held Bitcoin all the way until it fell 80%. In the second cycle, because of the "post-traumatic stress reaction" from the previous one, I sold it at about 40%-50% from the high, which was the 2017 cycle. By the third cycle, I sold it at about 30% from the high. So I did a little better in each cycle, but you can never sell at the top. However, in the last cycle, I bought almost at the bottom.

So you can say that I did get better over time, but it has taken about 15 years. Even if I try to play the cycle, I will not sell all my assets or go all in at the bottom. I may sell 20% to 30% of my position at the market top and then double down at the market bottom. The reason for this is that if you make a wrong judgment at the top, the opportunity cost of the loss will be greater.

Kevin: As a cryptocurrency investor, what stages does a typical investor go through?

Qiao Wang:Generally speaking, when you first experience a market cycle, you will hold it all the way until the value of the asset is almost zero. For example, in my first time, Bitcoin fell 80%. But I was lucky to only hold Bitcoin at that time.

Kevin: It sounds like you made the right choice, at least you didn't "all in" other tokens, but focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Qiao Wang:Yes, I only held Bitcoin in the first cycle because I didn't know much about other tokens at the time. Later in the second cycle, I started buying some altcoins, but even so, I still knew that only Bitcoin and Ethereum were really valuable. So when I decided to sell at the top, I dumped those altcoins and switched to Ethereum.

Kevin: Some people think that it is possible to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum by investing in small-cap tokens, but how difficult is it actually?

Qiao Wang: Every cycle is different. It was indeed easy to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum in the last cycle (2021) because that was the biggest asset bubble in all markets. In this cycle, the situation is completely different. I think it will be very difficult to outperform Bitcoin, Solana, and Coinbase stock from now on unless there is a similar monetary or fiscal stimulus again.

How do you view altcoins and memes

Kevin: Will the altcoin season you mentioned still occur?

Qiao Wang:There have indeed been altcoin seasons in the past, but this time may be different. The two conditions for an altcoin season to occur are: 1. There are fewer tokens; 2. There is a large amount of capital flowing into the market. But the current situation is that there are too many tokens, thousands of tokens are created every day, and there is not enough capital injected into the market. Therefore, this cycle may not see a large-scale altcoin rise like before.

Kevin: What do you think of memes? Can they continue to exist in the future?

Qiao Wang:I don't think memes are just a cyclical phenomenon, I think they will always exist. However, the key to surviving in this market lies in the spread of memes and the existence of leaders. Take WIF as an example. Its innovation lies in the "hat" meme, which allows any other meme or avatar to add this element and spread virally. But to survive in the long run, it also needs the support of CEX listing like Binance.

Kevin: Do you still hold WIF?

Qiao Wang: In terms of risk-adjusted returns, I'm not sure if it will surpass Solana. I now compare everything with Solana. If the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency market continues to rise, WIF may rise with Solana or even perform better. But if the market situation deteriorates, the risk of meme coins will be higher than that of mainstream tokens, so I prefer to maintain a relatively stable investment strategy.

Kevin: As an investor in Alliance, what do you think of Pudgy Penguins?

Qiao Wang:The model of Pudgy Penguins and the NFT community is very unusual. They are not businesses in the traditional sense. Start by building a community, attracting users, and then launching products, such as toys and games. This model is very unconventional, but it is becoming more and more common today.

Kevin: Do you have NFTs for Pudgy Penguins?

Qiao Wang：I used to own it, but I sold it later because the price went down. As an investor, I will think about whether these NFTs can surpass Solana.

Kevin：What do you think of NFTs as an investment category?

Qiao Wang：The problem is that the non-fungible nature of NFTs and the high entry price make it very difficult to attract new capital, and therefore it is difficult to outperform other assets.

Kevin：So you think that in this case, the liquidity of the market is a key factor, right? There are already many tokens, meme coins, and a large number of NFTs on the market, and people need to choose among these options.

Qiao Wang：Yes, absolutely.

Kevin：If your goal is to surpass Solana, why do you still hold Ethereum?

Qiao Wang:For me, holding Ethereum is not for financial reasons. I feel some emotional connection with Ethereum. After all, I have been involved in the early development of Ethereum since 2014. It feels really bad to completely abandon a project that I have participated in from the beginning. For me, Ethereum is full of emotional connections, just like the NFT community.

Investing in Pump.Fun because of autism?

Kevin: What did you see that others didn't notice when you decided to invest in Pump.Fun, one of the most successful protocols today (from a revenue and market share perspective)?

Qiao Wang:When the team first joined our accelerator, they were not building Pump.Fun. They were working on some other products at the time, but those products did not succeed. In fact, they pivoted at least twice before they came up with the idea of Pump.Fun.

So, when investing early, especially in consumer products, it's almost always a bet on the founder, not the idea, and I see a high degree of autistic tendencies in founders. It's not a coincidence that to be a great consumer product founder, you do need some degree of autistic tendencies.

I think it's a causal relationship, not a simple correlation, these artistically gifted people are able to think independently and often disagree with the public opinion. They are not distracted by the consensus on the Internet or other people's opinions, and can calm down and observe.

Kevin: Do you think you have some degree of autistic traits?

Qiao Wang: I think I probably have some.

As an investor, autism has almost become a "must-have" for me to select founders for consumer-facing products. The founders I look for often have some degree of autistic traits, and preferably some childhood trauma, although they usually don't tell you this in the first two meetings.

Kevin: So autism plus childhood trauma is the "alpha" factor for success, right?

Qiao Wang:That's right, to be a successful founder, you need two things: thinking and action. Autism is the source of thinking, and action comes from trauma because you have something to prove.

Kevin: What does Alliance DAO do?

Qiao Wang:We invest in founders who have high autistic traits and may have childhood trauma.

Kevin: Why did you create Alliance DAO?

Qiao Wang:After leaving Messari, I realized that I really enjoyed the entrepreneurial process from 0 to 1, but I didn't like the expansion stage from 1 to 10. 0 to 1 is about discovering insights into user needs and trying various methods to solve problems. I thought, how can I experience this process from 0 to 1 50 times in a year? So I decided to create an accelerator.

Kevin: Do you use hackathons to find more founders with autistic traits?

Qiao Wang:Yes, any founder who has created great things in the crypto field, we hope to invite them as judges.

Qualities that an excellent founder needs

Kevin: As a founder in the crypto field, how can you increase your chances of survival in a bear market?

Qiao Wang:The simplest way is that you don’t have any skills in other industries and can’t switch careers. This is actually a true portrayal of many crypto founders. They don’t understand any other industry. In the last bear market, many founders turned to the field of AI. These people are very smart and can become experts in new fields in a short period of time.

Kevin: As an investor, do you prefer founders who can quickly switch from one industry to another, or those who focus on the crypto field?

Qiao Wang:It depends on the specific situation.

Kevin: Another element of success is having a co-founder. How to find a good co-founder?

Qiao Wang:The statistically most ideal co-founder configuration is two people who have worked closely together in the past, either at work or on projects. The second most ideal configuration is two friends who, although they have not worked together, trust each other and understand each other's strengths and weaknesses. The worst configuration is someone you just met, or a stranger found through an online co-founder matching platform.

Kevin: You mentioned trust, which is one of the most important factors in a co-founder relationship. What is the second most important?

Qiao Wang:The second most important factor is complementary skills. If two founders have different key skills, it will greatly increase the probability of success of the team.

Kevin: One lesson I found is that in the early stages of a startup, founders often don't know what game they are playing because they are not familiar with the industry. Once you get deeper, you start to understand the rules of the game, and then you can define which skills are necessary.

Qiao Wang:This is indeed part of the entrepreneurial process, learning through trial and error.

Kevin: You also mentioned integrity. Buffett and Naval have also said that when choosing people to work with you, you should look for those with high intelligence, high energy and high integrity. Why do you think integrity is the most important quality that a world-class founder must have?

Qiao Wang:Integrity is like a multiplier, it is either positive 1 or negative 1. Intelligence and work attitude are absolute values, the higher the better, but if you don't have integrity, this multiplier becomes negative 1. Even if you are very smart and work very hard, if you don't have integrity, your final result will be negative. This is why people like SBF fail. He is very smart and works hard, but lacks integrity and ultimately destroys himself and those around him.

Kevin:Where do you think this "negative integrity" comes from?

Qiao Wang:People change, especially when you get rich quickly, money changes you.

Kevin: How can you find out as soon as possible if a person has a problem with integrity?

Qiao Wang:It's difficult. I'm also trying to design some questions for our accelerator application form to help identify people with low integrity. But to be honest, it's easy for liars to get away with it. So we usually screen out less speculative founders through those investment opportunities with lower valuations, avoiding those opportunists who are purely pursuing high valuations.

Kevin: Many people will say that money and fame are not good reasons to start a business. What do you think about this?

Qiao Wang:I have seen many successful founders who don't tell you that they are doing it for money in the early stages. But over time, they begin to be honest about whether they really want to make money through entrepreneurship, and I prefer this honesty.

Elections will stimulate crypto market fatigue

Kevin: You previously tweeted that the longer the Bitcoin price stagnates, the stronger the fatigue of cryptocurrency developers and investors will be. What do you think this reflects?

Qiao Wang：The meaning of that tweet is that people will feel something whether the price goes up or down. Even if the price goes down, people will still feel alive. But when the price stagnates for a long time, people will feel tired. I can feel this, for example, when the price went up at the end of last year, people felt good and energetic. Now I talk to the same people, and they complain that the crypto industry has not made any substantial contributions to society, saying that they want to quit, etc.

Kevin: So how do you communicate with these people?

Qiao Wang: I tell them that prices will go up after the December election.

Kevin: Do you believe that?

Qiao Wang: I think the election will indeed cause some volatility, and Trump's re-election may be good for cryptocurrencies in the short and long term. On election night, prices may fluctuate by about 5% depending on the results.

Kevin: If Trump is not elected, will prices fall?

Qiao Wang: Possibly, but even if prices fall, people will still feel the vitality of this market.

Focus is a superpower

Kevin: You once wrote a tweet not related to crypto: "It's not hard to be good nowadays because most people are fragile." Can you elaborate on this?

Qiao Wang:I think most people are fragile both mentally and physically. Mentally, most people lack the ability to think independently, they are always looking for recognition instead of pursuing the truth, and the rise of social media and smartphones has exacerbated this phenomenon. Since 2012, cases of ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), suicide, depression and anxiety have increased significantly.

Kevin: I am also affected by ADHD, and social media has a big impact on me. I talked to Nicola Kerry, the founder of Blockchain.com, and he said that he can't concentrate on reading an article now.

Qiao Wang:Being able to focus for long periods of time has become a "superpower". In the past, most people could focus for at least 45 minutes, but now most people can't even do that.

Kevin: How do you stay focused?

Qiao Wang:I actively limit the time I spend on TikTok. I don't use Instagram, Facebook or Snapchat. The only social media I use is Twitter. But even so, Twitter is very addictive.

Kevin: What do you watch on TikTok?

Qiao Wang: I like watching football, especially videos of Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi. TikTok's algorithm is very smart. After watching a few videos, it can fully understand what you want to watch.

Kevin: You mentioned that people in the crypto field are interested in longevity. Can you tell me more about it?

Qiao Wang: Actually, I meant it a little bit jokingly at the time, but it is true that many people in the crypto field are very interested in "longevity". I think outside of cryptocurrency, longevity is the area with the highest overlap with the crypto population. You won't see many crypto practitioners interested in nuclear energy, climate change, or space exploration, but they are almost all interested in health and longevity.

Kevin: But we can also criticize this trend. I have talked to some crypto OGs. Although they talk about "longevity", they don't even go to the gym. After all, "longevity" is not just about living longer, but also about living better, right?

Qiao Wang: Yes, the definition of longevity is not only living a long life, but also a healthy life span. In other words, it is not just about increasing the length of life, but also improving the quality of life.

Kevin: But this is not a coincidence. If there really is a magic pill that you can swallow and live forever without going to the gym, everyone will definitely choose that pill.

Qiao Wang: But we don't have such a drug yet. It is very clear in science that the best "drug" we have at present is to go to the gym and exercise.

Kevin: Yes, my concept of longevity is that first I need to get enough sleep, eat clean and healthy, and the gym is a must.

Qiao Wang: For me, the most important things are: first, sleep; second, going to the gym; then work, and finally eating healthy.

Kevin: How does work rank on the "list" for longevity?

Qiao Wang:Work is also important for longevity. Although work brings some stress and reduces life expectancy, there are also some positive effects, such as giving you the opportunity to communicate with interesting people. Social interaction is one of the key factors for longevity, so it's a balance. However, the reason I can say this is because I focused on work in my 20s, and I don't regret it.

Kevin: How was your health in your 20s?

Qiao Wang:I was very unhealthy. I don't know if you know that ferritin is a marker of inflammation, and my ferritin level reached 1400, while the average male ferritin level is around 200. Even 200 is not the optimal level, the optimal level is between 70 and 100. People with ferritin over 1000 are usually those who have cancer or severe inflammation. My body was almost full of inflammation at the time, and I even suspected that I had cancer at one point. In my late 20s, it was really bad. Today, my cardiopulmonary function is much better than it was in my 20s.

Kevin: Do you do any progressive work in the health and longevity space?

Qiao Wang:I do some angel investing occasionally, but not too much.

Kevin: What beliefs do you hold that most people would disagree with?

Qiao Wang:I do have some ideas that most people might disagree with publicly, but in private, they might agree with me. I find the current political situation to be ridiculous, especially the negative impact that the so-called "modern liberals" have had on society in recent years.

Kevin: Can you expand on that?

Qiao Wang：I think Harris is a Marxist. The first specific policy she announced was rent control, which is simply a manifestation of financial illiteracy. I believe that many people will agree with me privately, but in public, many people may stand on her side because of her identity - as a woman and a minority. This is something I think is harmful to society. Many ideologies of the modern left are more like a religious belief in my opinion, which is very absurd.

Kevin: The Democrats have put forward an economically ignorant person who could become president. What do you think is wrong with the system that there are no better options?

Qiao Wang: Recently I've heard people say that they're going to vote for Trump because he's "not that bad," but there are better options. The problem is that the reason people voted is because it's "not that bad," which suggests that there may be some deeper problems behind one of the most important positions in the world, the President of the United States.

Kevin: So what's your biggest prediction for the next 12 months?

Qiao Wang: The price of Bitcoin will go up, and it will go up a lot.

Kevin: How high do you think it will go?

Qiao Wang: $100,000.

Kevin: Where is the peak of Bitcoin in this cycle?

Qiao Wang: I'm not sure, the range is very large.

Kevin: What is your prediction range?

Qiao Wang: Between $100,000 and $420,069, because we may live in a simulated world, and the end point of the last cycle was $69,420, so if it can reach $420,069 next time, it would be perfect.

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