Original title: "Selling pressure gradually decreases, support gradually becomes stronger! ｜WTR 10.07"
Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week from September 30 to October 7, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $65618, and the lowest price was close to $59828, with an oscillation amplitude of about 8.6%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 62000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 1.94 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 900,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 53000~57000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not rising above 71000～74000 in the short term is 92%.

Important news

Economic news

1. Biden said he was considering sanctions on Iranian oil, and oil prices gave up gains;

2. The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 20 basis points to 3.91%. After the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase halved their expectations for the Fed's November rate cut;

3. JPMorgan Chase: Lowered the Fed's November rate cut expectations to 25 basis points. Previously, it was expected that the FOMC would cut interest rates by 50 basis points;

4. The non-farm data performed amazingly. The scenario of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November was almost completely ruled out by the market;

5. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate fell, and wage growth was strong;

6. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, the largest increase since March, and far exceeding the expected value of 150,000. The previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000. 10,000 people;

7. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% in September, which was expected to be 4.2% and the previous value was 4.2%;

8. On October 6, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.75%-5.00% is 2.6%.

Crypto Ecological News

1. According to Farside Investors data, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of US$18.53 billion since its launch;

2. QCP: Still optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, CPI data will be the focus this Thursday;

3. As of the week of October 6, NFT transaction volume was close to US$85 million, the highest level since the end of August this year;

4. On October 7, developers claimed that the new Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) would shorten Ethereum's block time by 33% and increase data capacity ⸺ thereby increasing overall throughput by 50%;

5. On October 7 On the 25th, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) said that despite a "seasonally weak" third quarter, Bitcoin is still the best performing asset so far this year;

6. Coinbase executive: As cryptocurrency gains more support from both parties, Coinbase accelerates negotiations with traditional financial institutions;

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long will this stage last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• New and destroyed chips on the chain
• Net inflows and outflows of large exchanges
• Holding structure of long-term participants
• Total spot selling pressure

(Figure below) New and destroyed chips on the chain)

The new chips on the chain show that the market currently has a certain amount of new chips, which is more optimistic than in the past few weeks. This proves that the market has a lot of solid growth foundations and the fundamentals are still relatively good.

(The following figure shows the net inflow and outflow of large exchanges)

Although there have not been too many large outflows (buying intentions) recently, the large selling pressure has been much smaller. The selling pressure in the market has begun to weaken.

(The following figure shows the holding structure of long-term participants)

The overall holding ratio structure of long-term participants has reached the situation in May 2020, and has returned to the situation at the beginning of this year.

This means that most of the market is occupied by long-term participants, with firm diamond hand support, and the support is relatively strong, which is not easy to cause a huge market collapse.

(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)

The overall spot selling pressure is small and is currently at a low point this year. From this stage and this perspective, it is still relatively safe.

Mid-term exploration

• Network sentiment positivity
• Liquidity supply
• Incremental model
• Stability and BTC, ETH market value ratio
• Long-term and short-term supply ratio

（Figure below Network sentiment positivity）

After a period of decline, network sentiment is gradually stabilizing.
It is possible that the sentiment in the market is slowly recovering and has reached a certain threshold.

（Figure below Liquidity supply）

The supply of liquidity is slowly recovering. When liquidity increases, the market may have a fall-stopping effect.

The current market may have applicability.

（Incremental model in the figure below）

The supply of stablecoins is still growing, and purchasing power is continuing to increase.

The sentiment of short-term funds may decline slightly, and the rhythm of the market may not be too rapid, but more inclined to the rhythm of shock repair.

（The market value ratio of stablecoins to BTC and ETH in the figure below）

It is possible that the data may show a market rise during the decline of the ratio. At the same time, before the market goes down or reverses, the market relationship may reach a certain peak. The general market value relationship is only for the convenience of observing the macro relationship of the market. It is currently in a slight decline.

(The figure below shows the long-term and short-term supply ratio)

Blue line: long-term and short-term supply ratio
In the internal on-chain interaction of the market, there is a supply ratio relationship between long-term and short-term chips.
When the blue line is rising, the market may be unstable or in a state of long-term accumulation.
If the blue line falls, the market may be buying or forming support at the bottom.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position
• Yitai Exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.

（Figure below: Derivatives risk factor）

The market price performance is basically the same as last week. After the risk factor hit the red zone, the price then adjusted back to the short-term holder cost line (62K) for adjustment. Judging from the risk factor alone, if there is no further selling pressure in the market this week, it will still adjust near the current price.

（Figure below: Option intention transaction ratio）

The option trading volume has dropped significantly, and the proportion of put options has increased slightly.

（Figure below: Derivatives trading volume）

After the market squeeze, the derivatives trading volume returned to the bottom area.

（The figure below shows the implied volatility of options）

The implied volatility has not changed much.
Sentimental state rating: neutral

（The figure below shows the profit and loss transfer volume）

The current market lacks incremental growth, so the market adjusted again after the positive sentiment (blue line) of the market hit a short-term extreme last week. In addition, the panic sentiment (orange line) did not surge as a result. Overall, the market sentiment is still neutral, and the market is more volatile.

（The figure below shows the new addresses and active addresses）

The new and active addresses are at a medium-high level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small outflow, and ETH has accumulated inflows.

(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)

BTC outflows in small amounts.

（E-Exchange net position in the figure below）

ETH inflows accumulate.

（High-weight selling pressure in the figure below）

There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has been lost in large amounts.

（Global purchasing power status in the figure below）

Compared with last week, there has been a small loss of global purchasing power, but overall purchasing power is still positive.

（USDC exchange net position in the figure below）

USDC exchange net position has lost a lot.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 58,000; Willing to sell at 70,000.

（Coinbase off-chain data in the figure below）

Willing to buy at prices around 58,000;
Willing to sell at prices around 70,000.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 58,000 and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 58,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 66,000~70,000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

1. The employment report may ease market concerns that the U.S. job market is cooling too quickly, and may increase the possibility of Fed policymakers cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next month, after the Fed cut interest rates sharply at its September meeting.

2. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated last week that protecting the labor market was part of the reason for the Fed's decision to start an easing cycle with a larger interest rate cut in September.

3. Powell and his colleagues believe that no further cooling is needed to reduce inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

4. In terms of encryption, the overall liquidity of options is still bullish;

5. In other comprehensive aspects, although last week's performance was poor, the overall performance of the encryption market in the fourth quarter is still bullish.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. New chips have reached the first rapid growth in a few weeks;
2. Large exchange inflows have declined, and selling pressure has decreased rapidly;
3. The proportion of long-term participants' positions has reached the mid-2020 level, similar to the beginning of this year;
4. The total spot selling pressure is low and is currently at its lowest stage since the beginning of this year.

• Market Tone:
Selling pressure is reduced, and support is gradually strong.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The decline in network sentiment is slowly stabilizing;
2. The liquidity supply has increased slightly;
3. Short-term funds are slightly stagnant, and the pace may slow down;
4. The market value of stablecoins relative to BTC and ETH has decreased;
5. The short-term fund sentiment in the market has not increased.

• Market Tone:
Oscillation, repair
The state of the market may be relatively slow, tending to oscillation and repair.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor has entered the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively high.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a small outflow of BTC and an accumulation of ETH inflows.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has been lost in large quantities.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 53,000~57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 92%.

• Market tone: In the short term, the market may still fluctuate around the short-term holder cost line (62K), and there is still purchasing power near the current price to further accumulate chips. The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the market may need an opportunity for the next market.

Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not provide directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia