The situation in the Middle East has changed suddenly, and the A-share market is "sucking blood". What do you think of the future of BTC? | Trader Observation

CMed

24-10-08 16:30

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At 21:38 on the evening of October 1, Eastern Time Zone 8, the White House stated that Iran was preparing to attack Israel. BTC subsequently fell below the upward trend line that had lasted for nearly a month in September, and quickly accelerated its decline. Since then, it has stepped back to the $60,000 position many times. The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the Iranian military claims that it has prepared at least 10 plans to deal with the Israeli military's attack.

On September 24, the People's Bank of China announced the creation of structural monetary policy tools to support the financial market. The deposit reserve ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, and the main policy interest rate was lowered by 20 basis points to provide long-term liquidity for the A-share market. The A-share index rose in response, and as of today's close, it has risen by 26.95%. China and the United States are competing for the liquidity of global capital.

The US economic data released in early October to some extent shows that the US economy is very resilient, the unemployment rate is lower, non-agricultural employment is far beyond expectations, and the data for July and August were revised upward. The US job market was not bad at the time, and the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September based on the poor employment data to prevent the risk of economic recession seemed to be a mistake. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers also expressed a similar view. So how will the Fed's subsequent actions on interest rate cuts unfold?

BTC has repeatedly stepped back to $60,000 and gradually shrunk, and soon rebounded to $64,000. The four-hour moving average group gradually sticks together. Will there be a large-scale market in the future? From February to mid-October, BTC has been fluctuating in a wide range for 8 months. This is the high bottom, which exists as an upward relay, or as a high top, and needs to seek more adjustments downward. Traders in the market have their own opinions.

Technical & Data Analysis

@luckychartape believes that BTC is still in a bull market cycle. After the fourth wave finds support at $42,000, it will start the fifth wave, and the ultimate goal will reach the price range of $260,000.

@TraderChenge Do you think that if the market falls below $59,800, it may complete such a potential bat pattern and continue to fall? However, before the market falls below $59,800, I will not be bearish. Before it falls below $59,800, my operating idea must be to buy at a low level. The short-term market is changeable, and we need to continue to pay attention to this potential bat pattern.

@CycleStudies believes that after Bitcoin price hit the overbought area, it has retreated 3.6%, about $2,319. It seems to be a mild retracement at present, and the bullish structure is still there.

@CryptosLaowai believes that at a small level, it is currently in a narrow range of 61,000-64,000 US dollars. There may be a false break at 61,500 US dollars, and a large number of buy orders will be executed before rebounding upward. It is unlikely to break through 66,000 US dollars to form a Higher High. There should be a higher point than the previous small level high of 64,400 US dollars.

In terms of the macro level, it is believed that there will be a large-scale correction to around US$40,000, forming a pattern similar to a head and shoulders bottom. The real bull market will begin in 2025, and the pattern at this time will be more like the pattern at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020.

@0xtaibai believes that the current main trend is a potential correction. The rebound did not reach the expected $65,000. There was strong short selling pressure in the $64,400 range. Is this a correction pattern or a reversal? We need to continue to wait and see. We need to pay attention to the risk of further corrections. The key support positions that need to be paid attention to in the future are $60,000 and $57,800. The key resistance positions are $63,800 and $65,000.

@Xbt886 From the perspective of the order book, the market and whales are mostly selling their chips, and the outlook is bearish.

Macro Analysis

@CryptoPainter_X believes that as the U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4%, the market's expectations for further aggressive rate cuts began to waver, probably because of the domestic A-shares' scramble for global liquidity. On the other hand, traders in the interest rate swap market began to further bet on the possibility of no rate cut on November 7, and the probability has gradually increased from 3% last week to 10% (currently 15.5%).

Combined with the recent financial operations between China and the United States, it can be clearly felt that both sides are somewhat aggressive in competing for global asset liquidity. If the next inflation data report rebounds, it will force the market to further price in the possibility of suspending interest rate cuts in November.

From the perspective of the Sino-US financial war, China uses the execution power of the epidemic lockdown to pull the stock market as a liquidity pool. Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in one breath, it is still not as thick as China's tap. Intuitively speaking, the Federal Reserve's attempt to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is wrong, and it may continue to maintain a high interest rate environment.

Next, we need to focus on inflation data. If inflation data rises rapidly, then there is really a possibility that interest rates will not be cut in November. As the tail of the Federal Reserve's liquidity pool, BTC will also find it difficult to continue the bull market.

@Phyrex_Ni From the perspective of BTC ETF, there was a net outflow of 3,394 BTC in the past week, ending three consecutive weeks of net increases, of which 4,265 BTC flowed out from twelve ETF institutions in the United States. Last week, the only four-digit increase was 2,100 BTC from BlackRock. The decline in purchasing power is very obvious. There is no large-scale selling at present, so the price of BTC is more linked to the macro sentiment. Unless there is a very obvious negative news, there is not much pressure on the price.

@MaoShu_CN believes that the overly strong employment data on October 4 was a bit too strong. Under the influence of such data, a strong US economy was built, but the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve consolidated the health and stability of the economy, but it was not very friendly to the stock market in the short term. The current trend of US stocks is not very good, with a slight decline. The US dollar index broke through 102 again and is currently trading sideways around 102.4, continuing to strengthen, which is also the result of last week's data stimulus.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has once again exceeded 4%, and the yield curve is steep, which is also the killer of the US economy. Gold fell back from its highs last week and is currently fluctuating at a high level, with large intraday fluctuations. It is currently in the stage of falling back and rebounding, with a quote of US$2,635. The gold price has experienced several days of consolidation and is likely to rise again this week. Of course, geopolitical factors may stimulate the rise of gold.