Written by: Rhythm Worker, BlockBeats

With only 2% away from its all-time high, Bitcoin is ready for Trump's return to the White House.

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the global capital market, the crypto industry, and the US financial circle are in a state of high tension. The confrontation between Trump and Harris is not just a contest between candidates, but also behind a series of fluctuations in conceptual assets, bets by political "fat cats", and a violent reaction in the cryptocurrency market.

Just like his performance when he was shot and assassinated, Trump's political tactics are very sophisticated. At the last minute, he chose New York to launch a canvassing campaign. This state has belonged to the Democratic Party since 1984. The effect was unexpectedly good. The stock price of Trump Media Group (DJT.US) soared by more than 21% on Monday. In addition to his upbringing in New York, the previous presidential policy of relaxing financial regulation has won him many supporters from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, such as "Paypal Gangster" Peter Thiel and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimonso. Musk has spared no effort in supporting Trump, campaigning in key swing states to distribute $1 million to voters every day. He once joked that investing in Trump was the riskiest bet in his career, and if Trump loses the election, he will be "finished." The situation of the crypto industry taking sides with Trump is even more obvious. The amount of donations from the crypto industry to the 2024 US election has reached $94 million, a record high. At the same time, the core capital forces of the crypto industry, such as the well-known venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and the crypto trading platform Coinbase, have also shown their absolute support for the Republican candidate.

"Cryptocurrency is inherently political and always has been; if the left relies on the politicization of finance, then cryptocurrency will be a right-wing technology by definition, and it is delusional to meekly suggest that cryptocurrency is non-partisan and hope for the best." The remarks of Nic Carter, the father of smart contracts, can almost represent the attitude of most crypto investors.

Current "battle situation", Harris and Trump's tangle

Taking advantage of Biden's recent mistake of blurting out "Trump's supporters are garbage" in a conference call, Trump, like a real performer, is full of fighting spirit.

"How does my garbage truck look? This truck is in honor of Harris and Biden." (Reuters)

According to U.S. media reports, Trump wore an orange reflective vest when he arrived at the Wisconsin airport that day. After he walked out of the cabin, he got into the driver's seat of a white garbage truck with the words "Trump Make America Great Again 2024" printed on it and answered reporters' questions.

In the sprint stage, the two candidates - current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump - are doing their best to win the last bit of support from voters. As the election enters the countdown, the campaign strategies, poll data and betting dynamics of both sides have attracted much attention.

October 29, Harris held a campaign rally on the south side of the White House. Source: Reuters

October 27, Trump held a campaign rally in New York. Source: Visual China

Against this backdrop, Harris and Trump's support rates showed a subtle tug-of-war in the polls, and the betting boom in the market continued to rise. As the election date approaches, how these polls and betting platform data will predict the outcome of this evenly matched election has become the focus of public attention.

Polls are evenly matched

Let's look at the polls first. According to the latest report from Reuters, Harris's support rate advantage over Trump has gradually narrowed in recent days, and the Democratic Party currently leads the Republican Party by only 44% to 43%. This result shows that the support rates of both parties are almost evenly matched nationwide, and as the election date approaches, voters' decision-making space and intention to vote are becoming more critical.

Since July, Harris has been slightly ahead in most opinion polls, but since late September, her lead has gradually narrowed, especially on key policy issues such as the economy and immigration. The latest data shows that voters are more inclined to believe that Trump has better policy performance in solving economic and employment problems, with a ratio of 47% to 37%. The economy is considered one of the core issues of this election, and about 26% of voters regard it as the most pressing issue for the country. On immigration policy, Trump leads by 48% to 33%, showing that his tough stance appeals to some voters.

Meanwhile, Harris has a slight advantage in dealing with political extremism and threats to democracy, but the advantage is shrinking. Polls show that 40% of voters think Harris is more effective on this issue, while 38% choose Trump. This narrowing gap reflects the split in voters' views on extremism, especially when both sides emphasize their respective positions, and voters' attitudes on this issue remain vacillating. Harris's team used the January 6 riots in Congress to emphasize the "extremism" of Trump's supporters, but this strategy had limited effect and deepened the voters' divisions in this regard.

However, the errors in polls have a linkage effect and are not necessarily accurate. In some swing states, the margin of error has a particularly significant impact on the final result. In the 2016 election, polls generally underestimated Trump's support, especially in the Midwestern battleground states. Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin seriously underestimated his support, resulting in unexpected final election results. Although the FiveThirtyEight platform only gave Trump a 28% chance of winning at the time, he eventually won in these states, successfully reversing the national prediction trend.

Green, a political science professor at Columbia University, pointed out that polls have become more difficult over time, and more difficult in the United States than in other countries. Potential voters in the United States are less willing to be surveyed than in the past, and only about one in seven people asked will be surveyed.

After logging into Twitter, the information on the voting day of the US election is prompted

Predicted gambling "rightward shift"

In addition to poll data, this year's gambling data is also a vane worth paying attention to, because bettors are playing with real money. Unlike the opinion polls that generally show that the two sides are evenly matched, although there are some differences in the specific numbers, due to Trump's focus on getting closer to the cryptocurrency community during this campaign, almost all cryptocurrency prediction platforms have shown a strong "rightward shift".

Polymarket is one of the most popular products during the US election. The main market for this year's election has so far traded nearly $2.7 billion. Polymarket also often broadcasts the changes in the election winning rate on major social media platforms.

According to Polymarket data, on October 30, the platform showed that Trump had a 67% chance of winning the November 5 presidential election. However, it is worth noting that Polymarket does not allow American users to use it, so this winning rate does not necessarily represent the opinions of all American voters. The user who currently places the largest bet is a Frenchman, who has bet $45 million on Trump to win the November election in four accounts.

In addition to Polymarket's 67% chance of Trump's winning, the winning rates of other betting platforms are RealClearPolitics 61%, Kalshi 59%, PredictIt 57%, and 538 54%.

This heated scene has also made mainstream brokerage firms on Wall Street unable to sit still. Among them, Robinhood, a new brokerage firm that has been popular with retail investors in recent years, announced on the 28th that it will allow users to participate in gambling on the results of the US election in disguise.

In order to circumvent regulation, Robinhood uses "smart contracts", that is, users can buy event contracts for Trump's victory or Harris's victory based on real-time changing prices. The price of each contract will fluctuate between 2 cents and 99 cents. If the contract event is confirmed to occur (that is, the user bets on the result), each contract will be paid $1.

Search for the US election on Google and you can see Trump ads

The weathervane of the capital market under the election

As the election approaches, the volatility of the global capital market becomes more and more significant, and various "concept assets" have emerged, from cryptocurrencies to "Trump concept stocks", which have become hot spots for market speculation. In the field of encryption, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have climbed, further consolidating their position as alternative assets in the financial market.

In the stock market, Trump-related concept stocks have also ushered in a wave of gains. In this interactive game of capital and politics, investors are betting with capital around the world, trying to capture the direction of the election through the financial market.

Under the "dopamine shock", BTC is approaching a new high

Trump's sweet period for the crypto industry has lasted for nearly a year. Under such a "dopamine shock", Trump's re-election is a great boon to the cryptocurrency circle.

As Trump's approval rating continues to rise, Bitcoin, as the world's largest cryptocurrency, has seen a strong rise in October. In the early morning of October 30, the price of Bitcoin once climbed to $73,577, close to the historical high set in early March. Although the rise has slowed down since then, Bitcoin has still risen by 14.26% this month, showing strong demand for it as a high-value asset. Ethereum also hit an intraday high of $2,680 before a pullback. In the past 24 hours, as leveraged short positions were closed, the total amount of crypto market liquidations soared to $257 million.

At the same time, Bitcoin open interest also increased significantly, by 5.11%, totaling $43.17 billion. The dynamics of "whale" investors in the market are also worth paying attention to. On the trading platform Binance, the number of long positions held is 1.42 times that of short positions. This trend reflects investors' bullish confidence in the Bitcoin market in the coming weeks and even months. The current global cryptocurrency market value is 2.43 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.04% in the past 24 hours alone.

In addition to mainstream currencies, there are also some new US election concepts, but most of them are still based on Trump and Republican concepts.

Trump Vance 47 ($47), a total of 47,000.000 pieces, this token symbolizes that Trump and Vance will jointly promise to bring real and tangible changes-empowering American workers, protecting communities and achieving economic revitalization. $Republican, also stands on the side of the Republican Party and supports Trump's coming to power. $America aims to support candidates who advocate safe borders, reasonable spending, safe cities, fair judicial systems, freedom of speech and self-protection, and is also a concept coin supporting Trump. (Not as investment advice, just as an article record)

US A-shares, Trump concept soared

In the United States, as the atmosphere of the general election heats up, the prices of stocks related to Trump have also seen a significant rise. Trump's Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT.US) stock price rose 21.59% on Monday, attracting market attention. Since September 23, this "Trump concept stock" has risen by about 280% in total, currently reaching its highest level since June. In addition, other "meme stocks" related to Trump have also benefited. The conservative video network Rumble's stock price rose 12% during trading on Monday, and the stock price of Phunware, a software company that participated in Trump's 2020 campaign, also rose 15% at the opening of the day.

On the other side of the ocean, some stocks of companies with Trump's symbolism are also sought after by investors in the A-share market in China. Among them, Sichuan University Zhisheng 002253 is regarded by investors as a symbol of Trump's victory because of the two characters "Chuan" and "Sheng" in its stock name. On October 31, Sichuan University Zhisheng quickly hit the daily limit after opening, and closed for four consecutive days, and its stock price almost doubled from the low point at the end of September.

Data: Flush

Sichuan University Zhisheng is not unfamiliar. Previously, on the first trading day after Trump was attacked, Sichuan University Zhisheng directly opened a daily limit in the call auction, with a quotation of 11.22 yuan/share and continued until the end of the trading day. Every time there is news that promotes Trump's victory, Sichuan University Zhisheng will be hyped up, which can be said to be a typical example of literal stock speculation or metaphysical stock speculation.

It is worth mentioning that Morgan Stanley has recently become the eighth largest shareholder of Sichuan University Zhisheng's circulating shares. This foreign giant has appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of Sichuan University Zhisheng's circulating shares for the first time. Morgan Stanley currently holds 1.274 million shares, with an estimated value of approximately 23.14 million yuan. If it has bought since the beginning of the third quarter, the floating profit has been close to 9 million yuan. This "cross-ocean bet" has triggered market speculation. Some investors believe that this shows that Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Trump's victory and even "follows the local customs" in the A-share market and bets on Sichuan University Zhisheng. However, some analysts pointed out that Morgan Stanley's holdings may only be part of quantitative investment, and a large number of positions will be replaced every quarter, which may not involve special "concept" strategies.

In addition to "Trump" concept stocks such as Sichuan University Zhisheng, investors have found a concept stock for Harris, 002615 "Hars". Hars mainly deals in water cups and foreign trade business. Because of its similar pronunciation to Harris, it is jokingly called "Harris concept stock".

Data: Tonghuashun

Obviously in the investment market, Trump's strength is also reflected. Compared with Sichuan University Zhisheng, Hars's trend seems weak. It hit the daily limit in the morning of October 30, but failed to close the board. The increase was 2.5% at the time of publication on October 31. As the election approaches, the speculative enthusiasm around concept stocks and cryptocurrencies continues to rise. Whether it is the U.S. domestic market or China's A-shares, the linkage effect of "politics + market" has become more apparent.

Critical Countdown: What to Watch in the Final Days of the Election

As the countdown to the US presidential election begins, critical moments in the coming days will be the focus of global attention. This includes not only the results of the vote count and possible legal disputes, but also the complexities of the US electoral system, how the Electoral College works, and who controls the two houses of Congress. Here are the key concerns about the timing of the election results, the possibility of delays, and the main concerns of the relevant markets and the election situation.

When will the election results be released?

After the polls close on Election Day, each state will begin counting votes according to its own voting time, generally starting at around 7 pm local time. However, the United States spans multiple time zones, which means that votes on the East Coast are often counted earlier, while voters in Alaska and Hawaii may still be voting. Usually, preliminary results can be obtained late at night Eastern Time, but if the election is a stalemate, the final result may not be known for days or even weeks.

On the night of the election, we can usually know which candidate won in which states through preliminary statistics and predictions from various media. But these are preliminary estimates based on statistics and voting trends, and are unofficial results. Therefore, if converted to Beijing time, the earliest preliminary election results can be known is before noon on Wednesday, November 6.

After that, the vote results will be sent to Congress, and on January 6, the new Congress will meet, presided over by the Vice President (who is also the President of the Senate), to publicly count and certify the votes of the Electoral College. Only after this step is completed, the election results are considered official and final. The inauguration ceremony is usually held on January 20, when the new president and vice president are sworn in and officially begin their terms.

The official counting of votes may take days or even weeks, especially in the case of a large number of votes or a lot of mail-in votes. For example, in the 2020 election, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a large number of mail-in votes, the counting of votes in some states lasted for several days, and Biden's victory was finally announced four days after the voting day. 2016 was slightly smoother, and Hillary Clinton conceded to Trump the next day.

At the same time, Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that if the election results are disputed or legal disputes arise again, like the Bush-Gore election in 2000, the dispute lasted for more than a month, which not only caused uncertainty, but also triggered stock market fluctuations. The S&P 500 fell 8% in November that year. This also means that the crypto industry will also face greater volatility in the near future, especially in the event of disputed votes.

Electoral College, the key to the swing states

"Winning the popular vote is a symbolic victory, but it is not a prerequisite for being elected."

In the US presidential election, voters do not vote directly for the presidential candidates, but for the electors who represent those candidates. These electors make up the so-called "Electoral College", who will formally vote for the president and vice president a few weeks after the election. This is an indirect election.

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, which is equal to the total number of members of the 50 states (plus Washington, D.C.) in Congress (435 in the House of Representatives, 100 in the Senate, and 3 in Washington, D.C.). Electors are usually selected by the political parties in each state at the state-level conference, or directly appointed by the candidates. They are usually loyal supporters or senior members of the parties.

The system was designed to balance the interests of large and small states and ensure that each state has a certain amount of power in elections. The number of electoral votes each state has is based on the number of congressional representatives in that state, a total of 538, while at least 270 electoral votes are required to win the presidency.

The Electoral College system has been in use since the founding of the country in 1787, but the design and actual operation of this system are often controversial. Some critics believe that the Electoral College system allows presidential candidates to be elected even if they do not win the national popular vote.

For example, the 2000 and 2016 elections are typical examples. Although Bush did not win the popular vote in 2000, he won in the Electoral College; in 2016, Trump also won with an advantage in electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton won a lead of 3 million votes in the popular vote. This system gives a few key states great influence, and the issue of "equivalence" of voters' voting rights has become controversial.

The possibility and consequences of an Electoral College tie. Although unlikely, a 269-269 Electoral College tie is not impossible. Historically, this has only happened once, in the presidential election of 1824. Under current rules, if this happens, Congress will hold a "contingent election" to determine the winner. Specifically, the House of Representatives will be responsible for voting, each state will have one vote, and candidates will need to receive the support of at least 26 states to be elected.

The 538 website has conducted a detailed analysis of the possibility of a tie between Harris and Trump. Professor Cobb said that the possibility of a tie this year is a "real concern", and pointed out that if it goes to the House of Representatives, the Republican nominee is more likely to win because the House is currently controlled by the Republicans.

In the current election, the performance of the seven major swing states will become the focus, including key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which were determined by a small vote gap in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Due to the implementation of the "winner takes all" rule, these swing states have become the focus of the two-party campaign, and the ownership of each vote may determine the final result. On the Republican side, 93% of registered voters said they would participate in the vote, while the Democratic Party was 89%. This shows that voters on both sides have shown a high willingness to vote in the fierce election, and the strong support base of the two parties has also made this election the most suspenseful election in recent years.

Battle between the two houses, the competition for legislative power

The result of the presidential election is certainly important, but the control of the two houses of Congress will also determine the policy direction of the new president. If the new president cannot control either house, it will affect the realization of the agenda.

On November 5, voters and the Electoral College will elect not only the president and vice president, but also the two houses of Congress. Some seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be up for election. In the Senate, in particular, the battle for seats between Republicans and Democrats is particularly fierce. According to the law, one-third of senators are re-elected every two years, and two of the 34 seats this year are special elections, one vacant seat after the resignation of Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse and the seat left by the death of California Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Since Clinton, every new president's term has begun with their party controlling both houses of Congress. They usually lose control halfway through their term, but at the beginning, they have always had control and therefore have the ability to implement their legislative agenda. This is also a key issue around fiscal policy, including spending bills (the absence of which could cause a government shutdown), or raising the debt ceiling, which require legislation. Appointments to cabinet members, Supreme Court justices and the Federal Reserve president also require Senate majority approval.

The ownership of control of the two houses not only affects the president's ability to implement policies, but also determines the direction of fiscal policy. If the Senate and the House of Representatives belong to different parties, policy making will face more obstacles, especially on key issues such as the debt ceiling, and the deadlock will directly lead to an increased possibility of a government shutdown. According to data from the crypto gambling platform Polymarket, the current predicted probability of a "unified government" scenario in which the two houses and the president are controlled by the same party is about 60%, but the possibility of a divided government cannot be ignored. This means that the policy direction and actual operation of the new government will depend on the ownership of the two houses, and may affect the advancement of regulations in various industries, including the crypto industry.

According to Reuters in Washington on October 23, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are defending their slim majority in the November 5 election. The Democrats only need to flip five seats to win control of the House of Representatives.

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