Market sentiment becomes more conservative: Trump's chances of winning decline; BTC falls below $69,000

Original title: "Uptober has been achieved? The market atmosphere is conservative before the election"

Original source: Bitpush News

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report. The core PCE price index in September was 2.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.6%. The PCE price index in September was 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, slightly higher than the Fed's 2% target.

After the data was released, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (TNX) once climbed to 4.33%, and the financial market fell.

By the close, the three major U.S. indices all fell sharply, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq closing down 1.86%, 0.90% and 2.76% respectively.

Bitpush data showed that Bitcoin fell below the $72,000 support level near midday, and then fell below $70,000. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.

Altcoins fell across the board, SOL fell below $170, BNB fell below $580, and fell more than 3% in 24 hours. The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.34 trillion, and Bitcoin has a market share of 59%.

Although the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Federal Reserve Watch tool shows that the market still generally expects the last two FOMC meetings in 2024 to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Trump's chances of winning have dropped

According to data from crypto betting site Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning have dropped to 63% from 67% two days ago, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's chances of winning have risen to 36% from 33%.

Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) have plunged 34% in the past three days, while DJT's stock price has risen 352% in the last month.

Brian Rudick, head of research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, noted that "since Trump began to accept digital assets in May, the correlation between Trump's chances of winning the election and the price of Bitcoin has only been 25-35%." But he said that this correlation may increase as Election Day approaches.

Uptober achieved?

From the overall performance of this month, Bitcoin crashed to a low of $58,855 on October 10, but then started a round of rebound, rising to a position close to its historical high, and the current 30-day increase is about 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would mean "failure."

In an article on X, he wrote: "Bitcoin is still some time away from a monthly close, which could become one of the most important closes in Bitcoin's history. $71,400 is the bottom line. A close above that level would further validate Uptober."

TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that the month is coming to an end, and unless BTC falls by $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in the green. He said: "This will be the second consecutive green monthly line since March."

The analyst said: "This 7-month consolidation period is not unfamiliar to Bitcoin, as it is common to have accumulation phases in which multiple consecutive monthly lines are not green during bull markets."

TradingShot emphasized: "So far, in the current bull market, we have experienced three such stages (including March 2024), and once the market closes the green monthly line for two consecutive months, a rebound will occur. The 2019-2021 bull market had three such consecutive green monthly lines and a very obvious accumulation phase, while the 2015-2018 bull market had countless times. It can be clearly seen from the above multi-year chart that when the market closes the green monthly line for two consecutive months, it is always a good buying signal."

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