The mysterious whale who bet 30 million on Trump's victory said: Just to make money

Original title: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: "I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda
Original author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Original translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's note:This article describes a French trader who calls himself Théo, who bet on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, betting more than $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insisted that he had no political motives and was only trying to make money, but due to the huge amount of money, he could hardly withdraw these bets and took huge risks.

The following is the original content (the original content has been reorganized for easier reading and understanding):

The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory said: "I am not trying to manipulate the US election"

The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory wants the outside world to know that he has no intention of manipulating the US election. "My purpose is just to make money," the man who calls himself "Théo" said in a Zoom interview with a reporter from the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who lived in the United States and previously worked as a trader at various banks.

Théo's huge bet on Polymarket, a prediction market that is not open to Americans, has attracted widespread attention. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the platform systematically bought bets on Trump's victory, raising Trump's chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds in these accounts all come from the same cryptocurrency exchange, which has sparked heated discussions about the motives of the "Trump whale" behind it.

Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the "Trump whale" and launched an investigation into the bet. The company said the bettor was a French financial industry professional with extensive trading experience.

Former President Trump's shadow is reflected on an American flag while attending a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

Trump's shadow on the American flag: The "whale" in the shadow

"Based on our investigation, we learned that this individual took a directional position based on his personal views on the election," Polymarket said in a statement. The details of Polymarket's statement match Théo's self-description, and he confirmed that he had communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.

At present, election observers are carefully analyzing various data, trying to predict the outcome of what is considered to be the most intense and closest US presidential election in history. Prediction markets, as a platform that allows people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the ways to predict the results of the election. Historical studies have shown that the candidate with the highest winning rate in the prediction market before the election day usually wins the White House.

However, the emergence of the "Trump whale" exposes the limitations of the current prediction market: despite the surge in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the market size is still relatively small, and it is still easy for a well-funded and high-profile investor to manipulate the price through multi-million-dollar bets.

Théo: The Mysterious Bet of an Anonymous Whale

After an article about his bet was published on October 18, Théo contacted the Wall Street Journal by email. To prove that he was indeed a "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to place a bet on the platform on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024 - one of many small, non-political bets on the platform. A few minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy. j

In the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater, a neat short beard, and speaking English with a slight accent, said he made the bet decision after analyzing that polls underestimated Trump's support, and he denied speculation that he was creating Trump's momentum through betting.

Théo declined to give his real name, and The Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claimed that the bets were made with his own funds, it is impossible to confirm their authenticity or rule out his ties to any political organization or Trump allies.

"I have absolutely no political agenda," Théo wrote in his initial email.

Théo said he did not want to be named because his friends and children were unaware of his wealth, and he did not want them to know about his bet on Trump. He described himself as a senior financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars on high-confidence trades, but political bets were new territory for him.

Théo said he began looking at U.S. polling data earlier this year and found that many polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the "shy Trump supporter effect" - that some voters are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support Trump.

"I know a lot of Americans who will vote for Trump but won't tell you." Théo was unimpressed when talking about the adjustments made by pollsters to correct the questions in 2016 and 2020, saying that he "didn't see any substantial changes."

Théo's huge bet on Trump: confidence and hidden worries

In two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters, criticizing mainstream media polls that he believed were biased towards Harris. In the Zoom call, he claimed that Democratic-backed media were paving the way for social unrest by hyping a tight race, and that he expected a landslide victory for Trump.

Théo said he was surprised by the attention his trading received and began making low-profile bets in August, buying millions of dollars in contracts for a Trump victory using the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris were roughly evenly matched on Polymarket.

To avoid wild price swings, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. Still, as his bets grew, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quotes when Fredi9999 bought, making it difficult for him to place bets at the prices he wanted. So he created three more accounts in September and October to mask his buys.

If Trump wins and sweeps as he expects, Théo could make more than $80 million, doubling his returns. His primary bet was that Trump win the electoral vote, and he placed millions of additional bets on Trump winning the popular vote — a scenario many observers considered unlikely. He also placed bets on Trump to win in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million — the bulk of his liquid assets.

Because his position at Polymarket is so large, it’s nearly impossible to close it without moving the market. Four “Trump whale” accounts collectively hold about 25% of contracts on Trump winning the electoral vote and more than 40% of contracts on Trump winning the popular vote, according to Polymarket Analytics.

Théo admitted he was nervous. He was confident Trump would win, with an 80 to 90 percent chance of winning, but was also concerned about last-minute breaking news that could affect the outcome of his bets.

“Anytime there is an unexpected event,” Théo said.

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