After the dawn, history will come.

The fate of Bitcoin and the US White House election seem to have never been so closely intertwined. Since the end of October, Trump's winning rate on major prediction platforms has been declining, and Bitcoin has been fluctuating. Related reading: "On the eve of the storm, Trump is "full of fighting spirit"". As the "hero" and "Bitcoin president" of the currency circle, if Trump wins the election, what kind of explosion will the price of Bitcoin usher in? If he loses the election, what will happen to the currency circle and Bitcoin?

When the enemy comes, the general will stop him, and when the water comes, the earth will cover it. On the eve of the election voting day, let's take a look at the predictions of top traders and make a foolproof trading response strategy.

What do traders think of the future trend of Bitcoin?

PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 25

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis focuses on the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB shows the direction of Bitcoin's price development under different market scenarios by constructing a series of monthly timelines.

In his prediction a few months ago, PlanB gave specific values based on his model S2F:

October: A classic surge month, BTC reached $70,000.PlanB predicts that Bitcoin prices will usher in a strong round of increases in October. He believes that Bitcoin's surge may be driven by increased volatility in global markets and the restoration of investor confidence, which is also the point in Bitcoin's history when it has shown a surge in price many times.

November: Trump wins the election and Bitcoin reaches $100,000. If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes that Bitcoin will usher in a major turning point. He pointed out that Trump's coming to power may bring friendly policies to cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current Biden/Harris administration's "war" on cryptocurrencies, especially the policy checks and balances on senior regulatory officials such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren will cause the price of Bitcoin to climb directly to $100,000.

December: ETF funds poured in, and Bitcoin soared to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, which will further push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.

January 2025: The crypto industry returns to the United States, and Bitcoin climbs to $200,000. With the Trump administration's openness to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the United States. PlanB expects that this will have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The "Power Law" team exits with profits, and the price falls back to $150,000. The February pullback is a prediction of a Bitcoin market adjustment. PlanB believes that profit-taking by investors will cause Bitcoin to fall back briefly to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to successively use Bitcoin as legal tender, and from April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under Trump's promotion. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, causing Bitcoin to climb further to $500,000.

June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence begins to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He predicts that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive prices up, allowing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.

July to December 2025: FOMO fades, prices reach $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment begins to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027: Market Adjustment and Bear Market. In 2026, PlanB expects the price of Bitcoin to fall from $1 million to $500,000, entering the distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with the price of Bitcoin expected to drop to $200,000.

The key to this forecast lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin, PlanB concluded. He pointed out that scarcity will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, the price of Bitcoin is expected to jump, driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to consolidate its position as "digital gold" among global investors.

The key to PlanB's prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and there are basically three options for scarcity now: real estate (S2F 100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.

PlanB proposed the opposite scenario, that is, if Harris wins, he believes that this will represent "the end of Western civilization" and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry to be further suppressed under the supervision of Gensler and Warren, continue more choke point actions, and may even face more stringent tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also stressed that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment, and its value will still be driven by the global demand for scarcity. Alex Krüger: BTC spot will be the main trading on election night Alex Krüger, an Argentinian economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices: Trump wins: Bitcoin target price of $90,000 by the end of the year. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin will quickly rush to $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will "soar rapidly" because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. But there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the market's rapid reaction will be immediately reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.

Harris wins: Bitcoin price target of $65,000 by the end of the year. If Harris wins the election, Bitcoin is expected to fall slightly before rising, and may eventually close at $65,000. Krüger gave this scenario a 45% probability, noting that Harris's coming to power could mean a continuation of existing policies. Market volatility in this scenario is more uncertain, but Krüger believes that Bitcoin prices are still supported and may continue to rise after the shock, although the magnitude is not as expected when Trump was elected.

Krüger emphasized the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, Bitcoin prices will rise rapidly, while in the case of Harris's victory, the price trend may experience a longer period of volatility. Krüger's personal operation is a non-leveraged position (mainly Bitcoin and some technology stocks such as Nvidia). He believes that spot positions should be the main focus to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Krüger said that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, but the premise is that there will be no "blue sweep" - that is, the Democratic Party wins both the presidency and both houses of Congress. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, because the price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the U.S. stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects that more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures will drive the stock market higher, which will be good for Bitcoin.

At present, Krüger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trump's victory, but based on different betting data and election models, Trump's probability of winning is still between 50% and 63%. This suspense setting of the election has prevented the market from fully digesting the possibility of victory, bringing a greater "surprise" impact to the election results. For the strategy on election night, Krüger said that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long-term operations if Trump wins, such as increasing his holdings of Solana (SOL).

The Giver: Post-election mid-term decline

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity and provides a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

The driving force behind Bitcoin's rise this time is event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge against election risks, not due to the overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness" and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.

The sluggish performance of altcoins and the concentration of Bitcoin. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin, and has not flowed widely to altcoins, resulting in the sluggish performance of altcoins. This shows that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than the overall crypto market.

The Giver expects that Bitcoin's open interest and positions will continue to be crowded in the coming week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is limited to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is unlikely to last until the next year. This short-term effect increases the possibility that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support long-term gains.

Based on this judgment, The Giver gave a relatively aggressive investment strategy: Based on the current market environment, he suggested going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before Election Day, but will eventually fall in the medium term no matter who wins after the results are announced. More related reading: "From the Trump effect, Microstrategy premium to the liquidity cycle, analyzing the BTC price performance in 2024"

Markus: Hedging strategy for long BTC and short SOL

Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research. His prediction of a $1 trillion market value for Bitcoin a few months ago was extremely accurate and quickly spread among the investment community, making him famous.

Markus' latest analysis is based on 10X Research's latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicted that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach the target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.

On the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more friendly policy environment for cryptocurrencies, which is expected to drive the market up.

If Harris wins, Bitcoin will fall by about 9%. At the same time, the tightening of the Democratic Party's regulatory policies may affect the approval process of other cryptocurrency ETFs. For example, the Solana ETF submitted by 3iQ Digital may face delays or even rejections due to the Harris administration. The increased difficulty of approving the Solana ETF will further affect Solana's market demand and price performance. Therefore, Markus predicts that Solana's decline may be greater than Bitcoin, reaching about 15%.

In this scenario, Markus's recommended strategy is to "go long on Bitcoin and short on Solana" to hedge against the uncertainty brought about by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or controversial, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

In the event of a disputed election result or Harris's victory leading to a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasized that Bitcoin may still show strong resistance to declines, so investors are advised to seize the buying window after a short-term decline in Bitcoin.

From the derivative market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders decreased. This dynamic usually occurs at an important level when the price is about to break through. The total amount of open contracts in the Bitcoin options market has soared to US$22.5 billion in 2024, showing the market's high sentiment for the Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin's 25 Delta skewness is at the lower end of its annual range (-8% to -10%), indicating strong bullish sentiment.

Thielen also paid special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that MicroStrategy's stock price has risen 33% since October, and its stock surge has had a "dog tail effect" on Bitcoin prices. The market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin has also been further boosted by the covering of a large number of short positions.

Standard Chartered analyst: Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year

According to Cointelegraph on Oct. 25, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.

Kendrick's model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize at around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately, and is expected to rise by another 10% in the following days,when rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment will become the main drivers.

If Harris is elected president, Kendrick's expectations are relatively conservative, predicting that Bitcoin may face selling pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize at around $75,000 by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, a research report from another brokerage, Bernstein, pointed out that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and the price of BTC may fall back to the range of $30,000 to $40,000.

Who will be president, how will other assets be affected?

Overall, if Harris wins, assets that tend to be bullish include gold, crude oil, copper and the US dollar; stocks (including A shares and US stocks) and Bitcoin (BTC) may be under pressure in the short term, while US bonds will show a short-short and long-long trend. At the same time, cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL) may also face downward pressure under the expectation of stricter regulation.

If Trump wins, the trading mechanism will be more complicated. The bullish asset classes include cryptocurrencies such as gold and Bitcoin, while the US stock market and the US dollar may show a trend of short-term gains but medium-term corrections. A-shares are short-term bearish and long-term bullish, while assets such as crude oil, US bonds, and copper may be affected to a certain extent. Assets that are more closely related to traditional crypto regulation, such as Solana, are expected to benefit from policy support, but their benefits are slightly less than Bitcoin.

US stocks

If Trump wins the election, small-cap stocks and specific industries in the US stock market are expected to benefit, especially traditional energy, gun manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. As Trump prefers a policy of low taxes and reduced regulations, especially for domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and mining industries may drive small-cap stocks to rise. The current Russell 2000 Index (a small-cap benchmark) has begun to reflect this expectation, rising by about 4% since the beginning of October.

If Harris is elected, the market tends to value her policies to expand Medicare and Medicaid. Health care stocks may see positive news, but overall U.S. stocks are under pressure. In addition, the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds may strengthen in the short term, and the market remains vigilant about possible regulation and corporate tax policies, which may suppress confidence in the overall stock market.

The U.S. Dollar and the Foreign Exchange Market

The expectation of a Trump victory has been reflected in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso, which is seen as one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policies. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trump's election prospects have risen, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly after Trump's statement on import taxes on Mexican goods.

If Harris wins, the U.S. dollar may remain relatively strong in the short term, especially as the Federal Reserve is expected to remain prudent in interest rate decisions. If economic policies promote long-term fiscal stimulus, the medium-term volatility of the U.S. dollar may remain moderate, and the pressure on emerging market currencies such as Latin America will be reduced.

Oil and Copper

If Trump wins, traditional energy industries (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policy tends to reduce regulations, support domestic mining and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on related markets.

Harris tends to adopt stricter policies on environmental protection and climate policies, which may bring certain medium- and long-term pressure on oil. Metals such as copper may benefit from the expected demand growth brought about by green infrastructure construction, but the market needs to be vigilant about the potential supply chain pressure brought about by tax increases and environmental protection policies.

U.S. Treasuries

Trump's victory is a short-term positive for U.S. Treasuries. In the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts say that smart money has begun to pay attention to the bond market. The yield of U.S. Treasuries may rise due to the expectation of Trump's victory. In the long run, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.

However, if Harris wins, the U.S. bond market may show "short short and long long" in the short term. Short-term selling pressure may be exacerbated by interest rate expectations or funds shifting to risky assets, but in the long run, bond demand may be supported due to lower expected inflation.

Gold

As the most traditional inflation hedging tool, gold seems to continue to rise regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the U.S. government debt problem will continue to expand and will be diluted through inflation. Therefore, gold and Bitcoin have become the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Due to its safe-haven properties, gold will attract investors to cope with the potential depreciation pressure of the U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty.

However, Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out that gold is more likely to rise after Trump's victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after Trump's victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.

What has Trump done in the crypto circle, the "hero" of the crypto circle?

Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, while still in office as president, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "empty value" and arguing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He said Bitcoin is "not a currency" and is extremely volatile.

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to be reserved in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the US dollar should be the world's only reserve currency.During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was largely negative. But the NFT trend in 2021 soon began to influence Trump's views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "cold winter", many crypto projects were on the verge of bankruptcy, and market confidence was low. It was at this time that Bill Zanker, Trump's long-time adviser, appeared in his life and brought a suggestion to change Trump's mind: issue Trump-themed NFTs.

Trump showed unexpected interest in this-however, he did not like the term "NFT", but preferred to call it "digital trading cards." Although it seemed weird, these cards were very popular, priced at $99 each, and were almost sold out after they were released. Trump's NFT actually allowed the former president to "stand in front of crypto people" for the first time, not only bringing him tens of millions of dollars in income, but also allowing him to discover a new and powerful support group.

As a result, Trump's attitude towards encryption has completely reversed in the past few years.

November 1, 2024 is the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted his blessing for Bitcoin and said that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies and even called on supporters to help him realize his vision of "Bitcoin made in the United States." At this point, he is no longer an opponent, or even just a bystander, but a "presidential candidate" of a crypto advocate.

The most iconic event was attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, and even understood the biggest pain point of the crypto community, promising to fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto."

He bluntly stated that "opposition to encryption is the wrong policy" and that he would make the United States a "bitcoin superpower" and hoped to lead the development of the global encryption industry through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, saying that if Bitcoin is to "go to the moon" in the future, he hopes that the United States can be the leader.

Trump attends Bitcoin 2024 Conference, source WSJ

In his speech, Trump tried his best to oppose himself to the Democratic Party's strict stance on encryption, especially comparing himself to Elizabeth Warren, who is known for encryption regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Committee". Trump's statement immediately triggered warm applause and cheers from the audience. Even more shocking is that he also proposed that the market value of Bitcoin may surpass gold in the future, and publicly criticized the anti-encryption policies of the Biden and Harris governments.

During the conference, Trump seemed to have experienced a "public awakening". He was no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but became a defender of Bitcoin and the free market. The audience was infected by his change of attitude and regarded him as a "hero" in the crypto circle.

Trump attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference, source The New York Times

Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin rose 3,900% during his last presidency, soaring from less than $1,000 to more than $30,000. His speech not only ignited the whole audience, but also gained the support of Bitcoin industry giants, such as Elon Musk, twin brothers Winklevoss, and Marc Andreessen, the founder of venture capital giant A16Z, all expressed their support for his encryption policy.

In addition to Bitcoin itself, Trump has gradually realized the important role of Bitcoin mining in the United States' energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives of several large Bitcoin mining companies in the United States and promised to strongly support cryptocurrency mining activities in policy. He even posted on the Truth Social platform that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currency (CBDC) and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins will be made in the United States." In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity, it also symbolizes the United States' will to fight against the central bank.

In September, Trump bought a cheeseburger with Bitcoin at PubKey, a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York. This move also promoted the possibility of Bitcoin being pulled back from a financial investment product to a daily trading currency, and became a symbol of his crypto stance.

Trump also made a bigger promise to the crypto community, not only publicly stating that he would retain a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, but also planning to pardon Rose Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for operating a darknet platform. Through these radical moves, Trump successfully made himself the "savior" of the crypto community. He promised to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and to make the United States the center of global cryptocurrency.

Amid the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. In the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and uncertainty in the global economy have pushed Bitcoin step by step to new heights. If Trump comes to power again, his support for cryptocurrency may undoubtedly trigger a new frenzy in the market, bring Bitcoin to new heights, and even reshape the financial landscape of the United States.

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