Crypto Market Outlook for November: AI Agent will drive Ethereum growth; Election results will not hinder crypto prospects

雨中狂睡

24-11-04 11:00

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Original author: Rain in the Wild Sleep

This article mainly wants to share with you some of my thoughts on the market after November.

This is a Thread:

1. Ethereum

Let's start with Ethereum. Recently, "pessimism about Ethereum" seems to have become a consensus in the market. The market seems to have no reason to prove that Ethereum is better than Solana. Solana is better than Ethereum in all indicators. Some radical market participants have begun to believe that Solana will have a chance to flip Ethereum. But I think Ethereum still has a chance. Its core advantages lie in two points: ETF and RWA.

A friend compared ETF inflows to liquidity with condoms-although they are buying Bitcoin, the money has not flowed into the crypto market. Ethereum also has an ETF. If we think that Bitcoin will reach 100K in this cycle, then Ethereum will definitely receive some spillover capital inflows. This is beyond doubt. If the SOL ETF is passed, Ethereum will no longer have this advantage.

Although my previous view was: "Ethereum will transform from the DeFi narrative to the RWA narrative", a core problem is that even if the RWA track has sufficient funding space, it is not a very sexy track for the market. Even if the RWA track expands, it will not bring huge market attention to Ethereum. Attention = money.

I think 2025 may be the year of mass adoption. And AI Agent will be the key to mass adoption of encryption. And its mass adoption will happen on Basechain, and Ethereum will benefit from it (market attention). Next, I will talk about this matter from two aspects.

1. Why AI Agent?

First of all, let’s make one thing clear: the future development potential of AI Agent is unlimited. Perhaps in 2300, the future world may be dominated by a large and unified AI to lead our lives (maybe the computing power in the future can meet the needs). But in this era, AI Agent will be a better application scenario for AI technology. Imagine that after data training and reasoning training in different professional directions, each AI Agent can become an expert in the corresponding field and perform tasks in specific scenarios to meet our needs.

Secondly, in my opinion, in the current AI cycle (similar to the previous Internet cycle), the main point of convergence of Crypto x AI is "what Crypto can do for training AI", such as computing power, data and the like. The explosion of AI Agent meme will make the market realize that AI technology can also be used to empower Crypto. The infrastructure such as wallets, DeFi, NFT, etc. launched by the crypto industry before will become a hotbed for the development of AI Agent.

So why is Crypto infrastructure so important for promoting the large-scale emergence of AI Agent?

- Interaction of Code

Crypto's smart contracts are essentially automated execution, and AI Agent can easily realize payment, quantitative trading, market prediction, liquidity mining, and asset issuance through the interaction of these codes. What about AI in the traditional world? It is difficult to achieve.

Imagine, will banks customize accounts for AI Agents? Will the financial industry provide services for AI Agents? It is very difficult to do these things at present, but the decentralized Crypto world does not require thresholds or KYC. AI Agents can easily create their own accounts through Coinbase Wallet (or other infrastructure) and perform more complex and diversified behaviors (especially economic behaviors) on the premise of completing the goals set by humans.

For example, $LUNA is rewarding Twitter Followers who complete tasks through tips, and Aether AI Agent launched by the $HIGHER community has accumulated $150,000 for its own treasury through donations and NFT casting.

- Composability and monitoring of AI Agents

These two points are mainly due to the composability and openness and transparency of blockchain technology. Using blockchain technology, AI Agents can collaborate with each other like DeFi Lego to complete more complex task goals. At the same time, all kinds of behaviors of AI Agent will leave marks on the chain so that humans can better monitor AI behavior.

I personally think that the initial tasks of AI Agent may focus on on-chain scenarios such as memecoin transactions, DeFi Farming, and DeFi arbitrage transactions. Later, AI Agent will be expanded to the Web2 world to complete some broader tasks from the traditional world.

2. Why Basechain?

The logic here is that I am more optimistic that Base can become the main scenario for AI Agent applications. In my opinion, Base has a first-mover advantage - Coinbase has launched the Based Agent toolkit, by using which users can create an AI robot with a wallet in a few minutes. In addition to Coinbase's promotion, there are more AI Agent infrastructures that have been/will be deployed in Base or the Ethereum ecosystem, such as Wayfidner (which can be mined through $PRIME) and Spectral.

As for the target, I currently hold three tokens: $LUNA $GOAT $HIGHER.

$GOAT is the first AI Agent meme that has been hyped on a large scale. It is related to culture and has attracted a lot of attention from the market for a long time. If there is no problem with the market, I expect its price to run again in the near future.

$LUNA is an AI Agent (virtual idol) on Base. Her feature is that she has a crypto wallet and will use this wallet according to the goals set by humans for her. I think it may be the only meme that can compete with $GOAT (at present).

Aether was created by Martin for the High community ($HIGHER) and deployed on Farcaster. It has control over a crypto vault and has raised $150,000 for the vault through donations and NFT minting. Could it be the first AI millionaire? Compared with the first two, it can have crypto nativeness and be deployed on a social platform like Farcaster, which is less restrictive than Twitter.

At the same time, I am also watching whether there will be more interesting AI Agents in the future. I think the AI Agent track may have a hype path from meme to infrastructure. In the future, I will focus 80% of my energy on the AI Agent track and bring more related content.

2. Election

There is nothing much to say about the election. Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the world. Many people can analyze the direction of the election very professionally, so I won’t make fun of them here. After the election results come out, there is a high probability that the news will be sold, and then continue to rise.

- If the Republicans come to power, it will be good for $BTC $DOGE $AAVE.

- If the Democrats come to power, it will be good for $XRP, and $XRP also has an ETF narrative.

However, I think that no matter who comes to power, the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies will become more relaxed, and I am optimistic about the crypto market in 2025.

3. Alpha

1. Hyperliquid will hold a TGE after the election. If Hyperliquid announces a TGE, $PURR will most likely see a wave of early hype. I am very optimistic about Hyperliquid's model of aggregating liquidity, so I am also optimistic about Hyperliquid's official mascot $PURR.

And you can clearly see that projects like Jupiter and Hyperliquid have fully understood the current market operation mode - releasing memes before TGE for market hype to attract market attention.

2. The Avalanche Foundation may have bought back 1.97 million $AVAX from LFG OTC. A mine has been removed, which is definitely a good thing for the long-term development of Avalanche. However, it should be noted that after "buying" back these $AVAX, the foundation split them and kept them in multiple wallets (each wallet holds about 2.5M worth of $AVAX).