Original title: "Have whales seen the most active buying in half a year? ETF funds are also pouring in! | WTR 11.4"
Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

From October 28 to November 4 this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $73620 and the lowest price was close to $67864, with a fluctuation range of about 7.82%. Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 65000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 1.7553 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 1.2952 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 53000~57000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000～74000 in the short term is 60%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The US GDP in the third quarter was 2.8%, 3% lower than the expected value and 3% lower than the previous value.

2. The third quarter core PCE price index was 2.2%, higher than the expected value of 2.1% and lower than the previous value of 2.8%.

3. The core PCE price index rose by 2.2% in the third quarter, roughly in line with the Fed's target, which may support monetary easing.

4. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is 96.5%, and the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December is 75%.

5. Citi believes that gold prices still have room to rise to $3,000/ounce in the next 6 months as the US job market continues to deteriorate and demand for gold ETFs increases.

6. Economic research institution Capital Economics said: In the next few months, the results of the US election will not have a significant impact on the prices of most commodities, and it is optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise in 2025.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. Jimmy Patronis, Chief Financial Officer of Florida, said that he hopes that the agency that manages the state's retirement fund will consider BTC and become the third state to use retirement funds to invest in BTC.

2. In May this year, the Wisconsin Investment Committee has invested $164 million in Grayscale and Belide Spot BTC ETFs, of which cryptocurrency assets account for about 0.1% of its total assets under management.

3. In July, the Michigan Retirement System also disclosed its investment in BTC, holding 110,000 shares of ARK21Shares ETF, accounting for 0.003% of its assets under management.

4. Cointelegraph reported that BTC hit $73,562. Despite the recent significant price increase, the search interest for BTC on Google is still only a small part of last week's artificial intelligence traffic. Relative to late May 2021 (when the search volume reached an all-time high), BTC's search interest currently shows 23 points (out of 100 points), and BTC is close to a record high but has not yet awakened retail investors.

5. Cointelegraph reported: Microsoft shareholders have begun preliminary voting on whether the company should invest in BTC.

6. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially accepted the application to convert the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF, and the SEC is soliciting public opinions.

7. Grayscale seeks to convert a hybrid crypto fund containing BTC, ETH, Solana, XRP and Avalanche into an ETF.

8. CZ said in an interview at Dubai Blockchain Week that he could not predict the future, but he could analyze history. Historically, BTC has experienced a very clear four-year cycle. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets, 2012 was a recovery year, 2016 was also a recovery year, and 2017 was a continuous surge;

9. 2020 is also a recovery year, and 2021 is a bull market. Based on existing analysis, 2024 should also be a "recovery year", and it is not clear what will happen next year. CZ himself is still very optimistic about the entire industry.

10. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that the total holdings of BTC ETFs are expected to exceed Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings (about 1.1 million BTC) in mid-December. If Trump is elected, we may see a surge in FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions, accelerating this process.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Large net positions on exchanges
• ETF capital inflows
• Illiquid whales
• Whale net positions

（Figure below: Large net positions on exchanges）

Large capital flows on exchanges show that high net worth participants have little buying intention and are relatively sluggish during this period.

（Figure below: ETF capital inflows）

From the perspective of capital inflows from external market participants, the current inflow of new capital is relatively sufficient. This means that the market has more room to move upward in the future, or that pricing can be raised more solidly at the bottom of the shock.

（Figure below: Illiquid whale）

The data of illiquid whales shows that they are still buying. They are relatively optimistic about the future market.

（Figure below: Whale net position）

This picture shows the buying status of whales more clearly, which is probably the most active buying period in the past six months. Currently, whales have a high willingness to buy. The overall data shows that the long-term future is relatively optimistic.

Mid-term exploration

• Network sentiment positivity
• Structural analysis model for each price level
• Incremental model
• ETH exchange trend net position
• Whale comprehensive score model
• USDC purchasing power comprehensive score

(Figure below Network sentiment positivity)

Network sentiment is still growing. From the current point of view, the sentiment in the market has not dropped sharply, and the market still has potential.

(Figure below Structural analysis model for each price level)

The inventory top of 71500 is still the level facing the market.

The selling effect at the 71500-75000 price level may make the game near the venue more intense. If the market wants to go up, it must overcome this difficulty.

（Incremental model in the figure below）

The volume provided by the incremental model is currently slightly weaker, but it has also slightly escaped the previous continuous weakening situation. The performance of the incremental may still be unclear.

（ETH exchange trend net position in the figure below）

It is possible that the selling pressure in the market is concentrated in the ETH user group. At the same time, according to the market review, ETH's performance has been weaker than BTC in the past year. It is possible that in this atmosphere of suspicion, the market is more inclined to sell ETH.

（Big whale comprehensive score model in the figure below）

BTC big whales are still inclined to hold in the current state, and there is no large-scale exit. It is possible that the large group in the market still has more patience.

(USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score in the Figure Below)

USDC's volume has weakened, and it is possible that institutional users in the US market have shown a slightly wait-and-see attitude towards the current market. At the same time, the presidential election on November 5 will become a policy influencing factor.

Short-term observation

• Derivative risk coefficient
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivative trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange
• Net position of Yitai Exchange
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Net position of stablecoin exchange
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivative rating: The derivative risk coefficient has entered the neutral area, with moderate risk.

（Figure below: Derivatives risk factor）

After two consecutive weeks of large-scale chip turnover, the market quickly squeezed out last week. At the current price, the chips accumulated in the previous period are rapidly reducing positions. The impact of derivatives on the market this week is still limited.

（Figure below: Option intention transaction ratio）

Option trading volume decreased slightly. The proportion of put options decreased slightly.

（Figure below: Derivatives trading volume）

Derivatives trading volume is declining rapidly, waiting for the next market fluctuation.

（The figure below shows the implied volatility of options）

The implied volatility of short-term options has increased rapidly.

Emotional state rating: neutral

（The figure below shows the profit and loss transfer volume）

The positive sentiment of the market has never been able to break through continuously, but the corresponding panic sentiment is also relatively small. Overall, the market sentiment is still relatively neutral.

（The figure below shows the new addresses and active addresses）

The new and active addresses are at a high level. Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small inflow, and ETH has no continuous outflow.

(Figure below: Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange)

A small amount of BTC inflow.

(Figure below: Net position of E-Tai Exchange)

No sustained outflow of ETH.

(Figure below: High-weight selling pressure)

No high-weight selling pressure at present.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly recovered, and stablecoin purchasing power has been lost.

（Global purchasing power status in the figure below）

Global purchasing power has slightly lost.

（USDC exchange net position in the figure below）

USDC exchange net position has lost as a whole.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 65,000; Willing to sell at 73,000.

（Coinbase off-chain data in the figure below）

Willing to buy at prices around 60,000~65,000;
Willing to sell at prices around 73,000~76,000.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65,000~68,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 73,000~75,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 61,000~65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 73,000~76,000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

1. At present, BTC's blood absorption is rising, similar to when the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates in 2022-2023.

2. The Fed’s interest rate stagnates in 2024, and the rate cut in September, the US stock market and BTC rise, the Nasdaq breaks through the historical high on October 29, and BTC rebounds to $73,000.

3. For encryption, BTC is equivalent to the Federal Reserve of the mountain villages (there is both blood sucking and spillover).

4. When the funds flowing into BTC are saturated, they will flow into some mountain villages or other sectors.

5. So far, the US monetary fund has accumulated more than 6.5 trillion US dollars in funds, and the return of funds depends on further reductions in interest rates.

6. From the perspective of macroeconomic conditions of funds and interest rates, everything is fully qualified.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. Judging from the relatively short-term large net positions, high-net-worth participants are currently relatively sluggish internally;
2. In the past one or two weeks, the influx of external funds into ETFs is very abundant;
3. Illiquid whales are currently buying relatively actively and are still optimistic;
4. Judging from the net positions of whales, they are currently in the most active buying intention in the past six months.

• Market tone:
The whales and external funds are relatively active and are relatively optimistic about the market outlook.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. There is still a high level of participation in the market;
2. The market needs to face selling pressure of 71500-75000;
3. The increment is still unclear;
4. The main selling pressure is concentrated among ETH users;
5. The whale group still has a high willingness to hold;
6. USDC performance is slightly wait-and-see.

• Market tone:
Anxiety, hesitation
At present, there is a lot of emotional heat in the market, waiting and holding at the same time, and a new trend force may be needed to promote the market, otherwise it will slide in a volatile state.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor of derivatives has entered the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively high.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a small inflow of BTC, and there is no continuous outflow of ETH.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has been lost.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 73,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 53,000~57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not rising above 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 60%.

• Market tone:
The chips of the "Trump deal" are already being sold, and the short-term market may touch the "short-term holder cost line near 64K". The market is still quite boring after reaching the previous high, and BTC's blood-sucking situation will continue.

Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks. This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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