Can Trump still become the first "Bitcoin President" in the United States?

「Bitcoin President」

On May 22, the Trump campaign team published an announcement on its official website stating that its campaign will begin accepting Bitcoin donations. Trump supporters can donate to Trump using any cryptocurrency accepted by Coinbase Commerce products.

The announcement reads: “In her attack on cryptocurrencies, Biden’s agent Elizabeth Warren said she is building an ‘anti-cryptocurrency army’ to restrict Americans’ rights to make their own financial choices… MAGA supporters now have a new cryptocurrency option, and they will build a cryptocurrency army on November 5 to drive the campaign to victory!”

Trump’s recognition of cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, can be said to be unprecedented in the history of world politics. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss posted on social media that “The Harris-Biden administration has cost the crypto industry $500 million in legal fees. Vote for Trump and that number will drop to zero; vote for Harris and the fees will surge to billions of dollars.”

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In addition to his friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, Trump may also be the first presidential candidate to personally participate in the cryptocurrency industry. He has expressed his children's love for cryptocurrencies more than once and participated in cryptocurrency efforts. World Liberty FInancial plans to provide cryptocurrency lending services on the Ethereum blockchain network. It will be more "user-friendly" and accessible than existing solutions, and will be based on non-transferable WLFI governance tokens. And it will definitely be compliant.

Before announcing the token distribution, Trump chatted about his understanding of Crypto on Twitter Space for 30 minutes. The 78-year-old veteran, who experienced two assassination attempts in less than two months, continued to output his love for Crypto and his criticism of Harris in the live broadcast. He praised his children's love for cryptocurrencies, recognized the development of cryptocurrencies, and was surprised by the success of NFT sales and the proportion of payments made through cryptocurrencies.

Therefore, the crypto industry has taken sides with Trump more clearly. The crypto industry has donated $94 million to the 2024 US election, a record high. At the same time, the core capital forces of the crypto industry, such as the well-known venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and the crypto trading platform Coinbase, have also shown their absolute support for the Republican candidate.

What are Trump's chances of winning on the "eve of the storm"?

Just like his performance when he was shot and assassinated, Trump's political tactics are very sophisticated. He chose New York at the last minute to launch a campaign. This state has belonged to the Democratic Party since 1984. The effect is unexpectedly good. The stock price of Trump Media Group (DJT.US) soared by more than 21% on Monday. In addition to his growth background in New York, the policy of relaxing financial regulation during his previous presidency has won many supporters from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, such as "Paypal Gangster" Peter Thiel and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimonso. Musk has spared no effort in supporting Trump, and has distributed $1 million to voters every day in key swing states. He once joked that investing in Trump is the riskiest bet in his career, and if Trump loses the election, he will be "finished."

This year's betting data is a very noteworthy indicator, because the bettors are playing with real money. Unlike the general opinion polls showing that the two sides are evenly matched, although there is some difference in the specific values, because Trump has focused on getting closer to the cryptocurrency circle during this campaign, he has shown a strong "rightward shift" on almost all cryptocurrency prediction platforms.

Related reading: "On the eve of the storm, Trump is "full of fighting spirit""

According to Polymarket data, on October 30, the platform showed that Trump had a 67% chance of winning the November 5 presidential election. However, it is worth noting that Polymarket does not allow American users to use it, so this winning rate may not necessarily represent the opinions of all American voters. The user who placed the largest bet is a Frenchman, who bet $45 million in four accounts on Trump to win the November election.

As of November 5, the data given by PolyMarket on the election results has further diverged today. Currently, the data shows that Trump's winning rate has risen from 57.9% yesterday to 58.5%.

Vice President Harris's overtaking trend in the latest poll data has further strengthened. In the poll data of media platforms such as PBS News Marist and Forbes News HarrisX, she leads Trump by 51:47 and 51:49 respectively, while the two are still tied at 49:49 on platforms such as NBC News and the New York Post. The development of the situation still needs to be further observed today.

In this election, eight swing states including Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin will have a key or even decisive impact on the final election results, and are seen as the decisive battleground between Harris and Trump. Yesterday morning, many mainstream media reported that Harris unexpectedly overtook Trump in Iowa and was the first to win a swing state.

Currently, Harris' lead in Wisconsin has further expanded, from 0.3 to 0.4, while the lead in Michigan has dropped from 0.9 to 0.6. On the other hand, Trump's lead in the remaining five states has declined except for Arizona and Nevada.

When will the election results be released?

In the current election, the performance of the seven swing states will become the focus, including key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which determined the final victory or defeat in the 2016 and 2020 elections by a small difference in votes. Due to the implementation of the "winner takes all" rule, these swing states have become the focus of the two-party campaign, and the ownership of each vote may determine the final result. On the Republican side, 93% of registered voters said they would participate in the vote, while the Democratic Party was 89%. This shows that voters on both sides have shown a high willingness to vote in the fierce election, and the strong support base of the two parties has also made this election the most suspenseful election in recent years.

After the voting on Election Day ends, each state will start counting votes according to its own voting time, generally starting at around 7 pm local time. However, the United States spans multiple time zones, which means that votes on the East Coast are often counted earlier, while voters in Alaska and Hawaii may still be voting. Usually, preliminary results can be obtained late at night in Eastern Time, but if the election is deadlocked, the final result may take days or even weeks to be announced.

Related reading: "Election Day Voting Officially Begins, Harris Trump Starts the Ultimate Competition｜US Election Real-time Data and Information Overview"

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, which is equal to the total number of members of Congress from the 50 states (plus Washington, D.C.) in the United States (435 in the House of Representatives, 100 in the Senate, and 3 in Washington, D.C.). The selection of electors is usually selected by the political parties in each state at state-level meetings, or directly designated by candidates. They are usually loyal supporters of the parties or senior members of the parties.

The possibility and consequences of an Electoral College tie. Although less likely, a 269-269 Electoral College tie is not impossible. Historically, this has only happened once, in the 1824 presidential election. Under current rules, if this happens, Congress will hold a "contingent election" to determine the winner. Specifically, the House of Representatives will be responsible for voting, with each state having one vote, and candidates need to receive the support of at least 26 states to be elected.

538 website has a detailed analysis of the possible tie between Harris and Trump. Professor Cobb said that the possibility of a tie this year is a "real concern" and pointed out that if it goes to the House of Representatives, the Republican nominee is more likely to win because the House is currently controlled by the Republicans.

On the night of the election, we can usually know which candidate won in which states through preliminary statistics and predictions from various media. But these are preliminary estimates based on statistics and voting trends, and unofficial results. Therefore, if converted to Beijing time, the earliest preliminary election results will be known before noon on Wednesday, November 6.

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