The election is over, and Trump is re-elected as the US president.

The funds can no longer be restrained. Bitcoin violently rose when the key swing state of Pennsylvania turned red. The super asset with a market value of trillions of dollars quickly rose by 3 points, and the key integers broke through continuously. The market finally waited for Bitcoin's historical high.

US$75,000, a brand new future.

The new high means that everything will be replanned. So how do top traders view Bitcoin after Trump's election? BlockBeats has sorted out some for you, hoping to provide reference.

The impact of Trump's presidency on Bitcoin

PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 25

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB shows the price development direction of Bitcoin under different market scenarios by constructing a series of monthly timelines.

In his prediction a few months ago, PlanB gave specific values based on his own model S2F:

October: Classic surge month, BTC reaches $70,000

PlanB predicts that Bitcoin prices will see a strong rise in October. He believes that Bitcoin's surge may be driven by increased volatility in global markets and the recovery of investor confidence, which is also the point in time when Bitcoin has shown price surges many times in history.

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000

If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes that Bitcoin will usher in a major turning point. He pointed out that Trump's coming to power may bring about friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current Biden/Harris administration's "war" on cryptocurrencies, especially the policy checks and balances on senior regulators such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will cause the price of Bitcoin to climb directly to $100,000.

December: ETF funds poured in, Bitcoin soared to $150,000

PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, which will further push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.

January 2025: The crypto industry returns to the United States, and Bitcoin climbs to $200,000

With the Trump administration's openness to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the United States. PlanB expects that this will have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The "Power Law" team exits with profits, and the price falls back to $150,000

The February pullback is a prediction of a correction in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that investors' profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin's globalization trend, the price breaks through $500,000

Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to successively use Bitcoin as legal tender, and from April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under Trump's promotion. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.

June 2025: AI boosts price to $600,000

In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that AI begins to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price up, making Bitcoin exceed $600,000.

July-December 2025: FOMO subsides and the price reaches $1 million

In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment has begun to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin has become not only a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027 - Market Adjustment and Bear Market

In 2026, PlanB expects the price of Bitcoin to fall from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution phase, while by 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.

The key to this prediction lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin, PlanB concluded. He pointed out that scarcity will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin prices are expected to jump in growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to consolidate its position as "digital gold" among global investors.

The key to PlanB's prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and now there are basically three options for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.

Alex Krüger: BTC target price at the end of the year is $90,000

Alex Krüger, an Argentinian economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:

Trump wins: Bitcoin target price at the end of the year is $90,000. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin will quickly rush to $90,000 before the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will "soar rapidly" because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price undervaluation, and the market's rapid reaction will be reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.

Krüger emphasized the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly. Krüger's personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly Bitcoin and some technology stocks such as Nvidia). He believes that spot positions should be the main focus to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

Meanwhile, Krüger said he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market regardless of the election outcome, noting that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, as Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with U.S. stock indices. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, which in turn is good for Bitcoin.

The Giver: Post-election mid-term decline

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in financial institutions on the buy and sell sides. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Krüger and PlanB, and he believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places particular emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

The driving force behind Bitcoin's rise this time is event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, not due to the overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness" and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.

The sluggish performance of altcoins and the concentration of Bitcoin. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin, and has not flowed widely to altcoins, resulting in the sluggish performance of altcoins. This shows that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than the benefits of the entire crypto market.

The Giver expects that Bitcoin's open interest and positions will continue to be crowded this week, even reaching new highs. He pointed out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is limited to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is unlikely to continue into the next year. This short-term effect makes it more likely that the price of Bitcoin will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.

Markus: Hedging strategy for long BTC and short SOL

Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research. His prediction of a $1 trillion market value for Bitcoin a few months ago went viral in the investment community and became famous.

Markus' latest analysis is based on 10X Research's latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach the target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.

Standard Chartered Analyst: Trump Wins, BTC Will Rise to $125,000 by the End of the Year

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.

Kendrick's model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize at around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and is expected to rise by another 10% in the following days, when rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment will become the main drivers.

Who is President, How Much Impact Will Other Assets Have?

The market generally believes that trading after Trump's victory is more complicated. The bullish asset classes include cryptocurrencies such as gold and Bitcoin. US stocks and the US dollar may show a trend of short-term rise but medium-term correction. However, assets such as crude oil, US bonds, and copper may be affected to a certain extent.

US stocks

If Trump wins the election, small-cap stocks and specific industries in the US stock market are expected to benefit, especially traditional energy, gun manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. As Trump prefers low-tax and reduced-regulation policies, especially for domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and mining industries may drive small-cap stocks to rise. The current Russell 2000 Index (small-cap benchmark) has begun to reflect this expectation, rising by about 4% since the beginning of October.

US Dollar and Foreign Exchange Market

The expectation of Trump's victory has been reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is considered one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policies. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trump's election prospects have risen. The MSCI Latin American Currency Index fell by more than 3%, while the US dollar has strengthened significantly after Trump's statement on the import tax on Mexican goods.

Oil and Copper

If Trump wins, traditional energy industries (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policy tends to reduce regulations and support domestic mining and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on related markets.

US Treasuries

Trump's victory is a short-term positive for US Treasuries. In the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts say that smart money has begun to pay attention to the bond market. The yield of US Treasury bonds may rise due to the expectation of Trump's victory. In the long run, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, US Treasury bonds may face greater selling pressure.

Gold

As the most traditional inflation hedge, gold seems to continue to rise regardless of who wins the election. Analysts generally believe that the US government debt problem will continue to expand and will dilute the debt through inflation, so gold and Bitcoin have become the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold will attract investors to cope with the potential depreciation pressure of the US dollar and economic uncertainty due to its safe-haven properties.

However, Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out that gold is more likely to rise after Trump's victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after Trump's victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.

Suddenly becoming a loyal crypto player, how much does Trump like Bitcoin?

Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, while still in office, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "empty value" and believing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He said Bitcoin is "not a currency" and is extremely volatile.

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to be reserved in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the US dollar should be the world's only reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was generally negative. But the NFT trend in 2021 soon began to influence Trump's views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "cold winter", many crypto projects were on the verge of bankruptcy, and market confidence was low. At this time, Trump's long-time adviser Bill Zanker appeared in his life with a suggestion to change Trump's mind: issuing Trump-themed NFTs.

Trump showed unexpected interest in this - however, he did not like the term "NFT", preferring to call it "digital trading cards." Although it seemed weird, these cards were very popular, priced at $99 each, and were almost sold out after they were released. Trump's NFT actually made the former president "stand in front of crypto people" for the first time, which not only brought him tens of millions of dollars in income, but also allowed him to discover a new and powerful support group.

Therefore, Trump's attitude towards encryption has completely reversed in the past few years.

November 1, 2024 is the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted to express his blessings to Bitcoin and said that if elected, he would end the Harris government's suppression of cryptocurrencies and even called on supporters to help him realize his vision of "Bitcoin made in the United States." At this time, he is no longer an opponent, or even just a bystander, but a "presidential candidate" of a crypto advocate.

The most iconic event was attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency. He even understood the biggest pain point of the crypto community and promised to fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto."

He bluntly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy" and that he would make the United States a "Bitcoin superpower" and hoped to lead the development of the global crypto industry through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, saying that if Bitcoin is to "go to the moon" in the future, he hopes that the United States can be the leader.

Trump attends Bitcoin 2024 conference, source WSJ

In his speech, Trump tried to contrast himself with the Democratic Party's strict stance on encryption, especially comparing himself with Elizabeth Warren, who is known for encryption regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Committee". Trump's statement immediately triggered warm applause and cheers from the audience. Even more shocking is that he also proposed that the market value of Bitcoin may surpass gold in the future, and publicly criticized the anti-encryption policies of the Biden and Harris administrations.

During the conference, Trump seemed to have experienced a "public awakening". He was no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but became a defender of Bitcoin and the free market. The audience was infected by his change of attitude and regarded him as a "hero" in the encryption circle.

Trump attends Bitcoin 2024 conference, source: The New York Times

Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrency. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3,900% during his last presidency, from less than $1,000 to more than $30,000. His speech not only ignited the audience, but also gained the support of Bitcoin industry giants, such as Elon Musk, twin brothers Winklevoss and Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital giant A16Z, all expressed support for his crypto policy.

In addition to Bitcoin itself, Trump has gradually realized the important role of Bitcoin mining in the United States' energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives of several large Bitcoin mining companies in the United States and promised to strongly support cryptocurrency mining activities in terms of policy. He even posted on the Truth Social platform that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins will be made in the United States." In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity, it also symbolizes the United States' will to fight against the central bank.

In September, Trump bought a cheeseburger with Bitcoin at PubKey, a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York. This move also promoted the possibility of Bitcoin being pulled back from a financial investment product to a daily trading currency, and became a symbol of his crypto stance.

Trump also made a greater commitment to the crypto community, not only publicly stating that he would retain a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, but also planning to pardon Rose Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for operating a dark web platform. Through these radical moves, Trump has successfully established himself as the "savior" of the crypto world, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and to make the United States the global center of cryptocurrency.

Amid the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. In the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainty have pushed Bitcoin step by step to new heights. If Trump comes to power again, his support for cryptocurrency may undoubtedly trigger a new frenzy in the market, bringing Bitcoin to new heights and even reshaping the financial landscape of the United States.

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