Bitcoin is heading towards $100,000, yet the cryptocurrency trading community is very quiet. After Trump's election, everyone was expecting a surge in liquidity, but apart from the meme-driven hype sparked by Binance, all altcoins have been left far behind by BTC. Why? Why is it that when Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall, and when Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall even more?
The answer may lie in the $MSTR stock.
MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin is nothing new in the crypto world; it has been a Bitcoin index in the U.S. stock market since the last cycle. However, in September this year, MSTR once again caught the market's attention. This time, it was because MSTR actually started moving up in price ahead of Bitcoin's surge and maintained a continuous premium over Bitcoin in the subsequent market.
BlockBeats notes a high correlation between the Net Asset Value Premium (NAV Premium) and MicroStrategy's stock issuance activities. Shortly after MicroStrategy issues new stock, the premium tends to increase. According to MSTR Tracker, the current NAV premium has reached around 3.3.
As a result, many people have started discussing the reason behind the premium on MSTR. In fact, since the second half of last year, MicroStrategy has quietly initiated a new "premium issuance" buying strategy.
Related Read: Why has the premium soared when the "debt-for-BTC" strategy remains the same for MSTR?
In simple terms, MicroStrategy had previously been raising funds through debt issuance to purchase BTC, meaning that each share of MSTR represented a certain amount of BTC (which is also why it is considered a U.S. stock BTC index). However, the "premium issuance" model is more straightforward and effective: as the price of Bitcoin rises and the company's market capitalization increases, there is a premium on MSTR's exchange rate to Bitcoin.
At this point, the company issues more MSTR shares at a premium to buy a larger amount of Bitcoin than the corresponding amount of shares, causing the amount of BTC per share of MSTR to further increase. This means that the company's market cap and the value of MSTR will also rise, setting off a virtuous cycle of continuous growth.
One-sentence summary: MSTR becomes more valuable as it issues more shares.
What does this have to do with the Bitcoin bull market? In addition to the factor of MicroStrategy occupying 5% of the total circulation, the current US stock market seems to be undergoing a paradigm shift. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been emphasizing throughout this year: the US stock market will have more and more MSTR, even calling his model an "infinite money glitch." Initially, many people didn't take it seriously, but recently, with tech giants like Microsoft starting to discuss "Bitcoin treasury," you can feel the gears of fate starting to turn.
In other words, if Saylor's vision continues to become a reality, more and more US stock companies will adopt the "premium issuance" Bitcoin treasury, further linking Bitcoin's price to the US stock market. And this massive liquidity will be fully absorbed by BTC as an underlying asset, unrelated to other altcoins (this is also one of the reasons why Bitcoin ETF inflows surged recently while Ethereum ETF remained calm).
It can be foreseen that if the crypto industry pauses in terms of narrative innovation and practical ability, Bitcoin will drift further away from Crypto. In this overarching context, the bull market is left with only two betas: Bitcoin and Solana, which absorbs liquidity within the circle.
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