XRP Leads the Way as Major Coins See Recovery: Is Altseason Back?

Foresight News

24-11-22 14:56

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Original Article Title: "XRP Leads the Rise, Established Coins Revive: Signal of Altcoin Season Return?"

Original Article Author: Chandler, Foresight News

Bitcoin's price has repeatedly hit new highs, breaking the $99,000 mark, driving activity across the entire cryptocurrency market. Established altcoins have also begun to shine, with Ripple (XRP) particularly eye-catching. According to Bitget market data, on November 22, XRP broke through $1.4 USDT, currently priced at $1.416 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of over 30%.

Compared to the fervent Meme market, established altcoins seem to be quietly surging, not attracting as much attention as Meme coins but accumulating market focus through steady gains.

According to Kaiko data, as of November 18, altcoin weekly trading volume soared to over $300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among them, DOGE, XRP, SOL, and PEPE accounted for 60% of the total trading volume.

In November so far, XRP has silently risen from around $0.5 to a high of $1.435, a 182.4% increase, hitting a new high in over three years; ADA has surged from $0.33 to $0.9, with nearly a 170% increase this month; XLM has risen from $0.09 to $0.294, a rise of over 220%, showing signs that established altcoins are gradually breaking out of their slump and reshaping their market position through actual performance.

If this trend continues, the revival of established coins intertwined with the activity of hot tokens may usher in a more widespread "Altcoin Season" market in the future.

Gary Gensler Announces Impending Departure, Years-Long Lawsuit May Conclude

Behind XRP's recent strong surge are multiple intertwined factors. The change in market sentiment is undoubtedly the most direct driving force.

On July 13, 2023, when the court ruled that XRP sales on digital trading platforms were not considered securities, Ripple achieved partial victory. However, the court deemed XRP sales by Ripple to institutional investors as unregistered securities. Furthermore, the court also ruled that Garlinghouse's and Larsen's personal XRP sales did not constitute violations. On August 7, 2023, the court made a final judgment, requiring Ripple to pay a $1.250351 billion civil penalty and prohibiting the company from further violations of the Securities Act.

On October 3, the U.S. SEC stated that it is appealing the ruling of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit regarding Web3 payment company Ripple. An SEC spokesperson stated, "The district court's ruling in the Ripple case conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent and securities law. We look forward to presenting our arguments at the Second Circuit."

However, with the victory of Trump in the election, this regulation may be relaxed.

On November 22, according to the U.S. SEC website, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025. The market has begun to anticipate changes in the future regulatory environment, and lawsuits against companies like Ripple may be softened, settled, or even dismissed.

Gary's longstanding strict regulation of the crypto industry, especially Ripple, has kept XRP in a legal and market dual dilemma. Now, there are signs that this regulatory stance may be loosening, giving the market an opportunity to reassess the value of XRP.

From a data perspective, according to CoinGlass data, XRP futures open interest (OI) has approached nearly $2.44 billion, hitting a historical high. This data reflects that the market's speculative enthusiasm for XRP has reached an unprecedented level. Open interest refers to the total outstanding and unsettled active futures or options contracts, usually seen as an important indicator of market activity and trading enthusiasm.

Institutions Rush to Launch ETFs

In addition to regulatory easing, multiple institutions have also begun applying for XRP ETFs.

On October 2, a Bitwise spokesperson confirmed that Bitwise had submitted an XRP ETF application, which has been formally filed on the Delaware state government website. According to its S-1 registration document submitted to the U.S. SEC for its XRP ETF, the XRP custodian will primarily use cold storage to hold the trust's assets and will transfer a limited number of assets to hot storage as needed to facilitate efficient basket creation and redemption.

One week later, cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital submitted an application to the U.S. SEC for an XRP spot ETF named "Canary XRP ETF." The plan is to provide investors with an investment channel in XRP without directly holding XRP, while using CME's CF Ripple Index as a price tracking benchmark. Its founder, Steven McClurg, stated that the positive changes in the regulatory environment and investors' demand for diversified crypto assets are the main reasons driving this application.

On October 16, Grayscale Investments submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to convert its mixed crypto fund, the Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), into an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). As of September 30, the fund was primarily composed of Bitcoin, accounting for 74.7%, followed by Ethereum at around 18.55%, with the remainder made up of SOL, XRP, and AVAX. The company had previously converted its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETFs.

On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application to the U.S. SEC for an XRP ETF, the "21Shares Core XRP TRUST."

These successive applications indicate that XRP's market position as a crypto asset is steadily recovering, reflecting the market's confidence in XRP's future potential. After a milestone development in Ripple's legal dispute with the SEC, concerns about XRP's legitimacy have eased. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, the wave of XRP ETF applications is undoubtedly a significant signal of progress for the industry.

Altcoin Season Making a Comeback?

The CMC Crypto Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominated season. This index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, providing detailed charts and metrics to track market trends and the altcoin market cap share.

Looking at the chart and index data, the CMC Crypto Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 27/100, indicating that the market is still predominantly led by Bitcoin, and altcoins have not yet fully entered a strong dominant position. However, the trend over the past 7 days is worth noting. The altcoin season index has gradually climbed from a low point on the 17th, and on the 21st, it significantly jumped to 28, showing a revival of interest in altcoins.

When considering historical data, although the current index is far below the annual high of 50, there has been a significant recovery from the low point of 13 earlier this month. This upward trend may indicate that funds in the market are slowly rotating from mainstream assets like Bitcoin to the altcoin sector. Especially against the backdrop of recent strong performances by old-school altcoins like XRP and ADA, this trend may further strengthen.

Meanwhile, the altcoin market cap is also steadily growing. Although the growth rate has not yet reached a level sufficient to completely reverse the market dynamics, the gradual stabilization and slight increase demonstrate a subtle shift in market sentiment. Investors are beginning to reassess the value of altcoins and are gradually shifting their focus to these assets.

If this trend can continue and hold steady growth over the next few weeks, perhaps the altcoin season may finally be upon us.

However, looking at the Top 100 performance over the past 90 days, meme coins, driven by their high speculative nature and social traction, are still hard to shake in terms of market dominance.