Original Text Translation: Wu Discusses Blockchain

In a recent interview on the podcast Alpha First, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions for the future of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that with the potential incoming Trump administration, the loose monetary policy in the United States will lead to dollar depreciation, thereby driving up the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He also discussed global inflation, the monetary policies of sovereign nations, and how Bitcoin and other crypto assets like memecoins could benefit. He emphasized that investors need to remain cautious during bull markets, avoiding overlooking market risks due to greed. Additionally, he looked ahead to future market trends and predicted a milestone where Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025.

Please note: The views of each guest do not represent the views of Wu Discusses, and Wu Discusses does not endorse any products or tokens. Readers are advised to strictly adhere to local laws and regulations.

Listen to the full podcast (YouTube):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xONEXGRcBMU

Trump's Economic Policy Will Lead to Dollar Depreciation and Benefit Bitcoin

Dreamer: It's only been a few weeks since the election, and the market prices have seen a lot of changes. What can we expect in the next 12 months? Do you have any vision to share with us? What should we pay attention to in the overall landscape of cryptocurrency predictions?

Arthur: From my perspective, the market's predictions are correct. They anticipate that Trump and his new cabinet members will print a lot of money in the US. One of their campaign promises is to attract manufacturing and industrial businesses back to the US through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a large amount of money through bank credit to increase the credit quality in the US economy to drive production and raise wage levels. These will all lead to inflation.

The ultimate losers will be those who save in dollars or hold government bonds. Those who hold assets with fixed supplies, like Bitcoin, will perform very well. We are already seeing this trend, right?

So, I have plotted some data comparing the total US bank credit with Bitcoin's performance. Currently, Bitcoin is clearly leading. This indicates that if Trump takes office, his plan is already clear—to weaken the dollar, stimulate the market with credit, get people back to work, and restore US production capacity. I believe he will execute this plan.

Will Bitcoin Reach $1 Million?

Scott: There is a follow-up question about Trump. You made a bold prediction that if Trump took office, Bitcoin would reach $1 million. Do you still think everything will unfold as expected? Do you still have confidence?

Arthur: I am confident, but unsure if it will happen in the short term. In fact, this trend started when Trump was elected president in 2016. At that time, he initiated a trade war against China, and the Democratic Party and the Biden administration continued this policy after taking office. So now, this confrontation has become ingrained in American political culture.

In the past, the United States shifted much of its manufacturing and production capacity to China and Asia, where these countries gained a competitive advantage through currency manipulation, affecting American workers. Therefore, the United States must bring these industries back domestically. To achieve this goal, trillions of dollars in credit need to be allocated to businesses so they can be profitable domestically in the U.S.

Biden has already passed acts such as the CHIPS Act, infrastructure bills, the Green New Deal, and other measures that require significant financial support. This trend will continue.

Global Economic Policies Will Drive Inflation and Benefit Crypto Assets

Dreamer: Those in the crypto space are often the most disruptive. There are many things worth discussing regarding Trump. From a domestic perspective, your views make a lot of sense and are quite optimistic. But looking at the international stage, how will the election affect foreign policy, war, and trade? For Asia, some policies may bring a certain level of fear. Will these policies have a negative impact on the economy or cryptocurrency, or should we not worry too much?

Arthur: I think fundamentally, every country is now pursuing a policy of "nation first." The U.S. has proposed "America First," while China hopes to bring prosperity back to rural areas or low-income groups through its "common prosperity" plan. Therefore, the Chinese government has cracked down on the real estate bubble and is now stimulating the economy through a loose monetary policy.

Japan is experiencing capital inflows, boosting its economy but requiring more credit to prevent bank failures. Europe, on the other hand, has cut off cheap energy from Russia and is now importing expensive energy from the U.S., putting itself in a difficult situation. However, they still need to support business operations, so they will also take stimulus measures.

So every country is striving to take care of its own people, which means reviving local industries and increasing demand for goods. This trend will drive global inflation upward, further dampening the long-term outlook for bond yields.

In this environment, cryptocurrencies will perform well. Although countries' policies may seem different, they are actually pursuing the same goal of prioritizing their citizens' needs. This requires an increase in domestic credit allocation and supply expansion to support production and create job opportunities for people. This global trend is a significant boon for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Will Bitcoin's Rally Drive Other Crypto Assets?

Dreamer: It seems like this is a great opportunity for cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin. But what about other cryptocurrencies? How do you think they will be affected by Bitcoin's rally? Are you a Bitcoin maximalist, believing that only Bitcoin has potential and nothing else will follow? Or do you think other projects like Ethereum will have a chance? For example, NFTs, meme coins, and DeFi, these trends have had their ups and downs. Will they also benefit from the market rally? Or are you mainly focused on institutional investors, believing that only Bitcoin will attract funds?

Arthur: I don't actually pay much attention to the moves of institutional investors because everyone always says they will enter the market, but regardless, they have their own complex investment logic and credit considerations, and there are reasons for buying or not buying. From the perspective of retail investors, when the price of Bitcoin goes up, everyone's most important asset is Bitcoin. When my wealth in Bitcoin increases, I don't want to go back to fiat, because it doesn't make sense, right? I also won't only invest in Bitcoin. I want to invest in other crypto assets that have a greater increase than Bitcoin.

What else can we do? We will focus on meme coins, new Layer 1 blockchains, Layer 2 projects, NFTs, the gaming sector, and so on. Bitcoin leads the market, and then funds will gradually flow into other categories of assets. Because ultimately, the goal is to earn more cryptocurrency, not to convert back to fiat. I believe fiat will eventually go to zero.

Scott: Yes, I think everyone will try to make quick profits and even be a bit addicted to this rapid growth. After all, this is one of the fastest-growing asset classes. If they profit from Bitcoin, many people will not convert back to fiat but will turn to other crypto assets that still have potential. You also mentioned that meme coins in this cycle have surprised everyone, much like NFTs in the previous cycle. I heard you hold some meme coins; is this part of the market interesting to you? How have meme coins performed in this cycle, and can they easily grow to a market cap of tens of billions of dollars?

Arthur: This is indeed very interesting, I love it. This phenomenon is both interesting and amusing, like that meme coin Squirrel, going from zero to $20 billion in just about nine days. Just because the U.S. government "executed" a squirrel, it became a $20 billion meme coin traded globally. This phenomenon shows how quickly we react to hot topics in global culture and make them fun through meme coins. Now, everyone knows about this squirrel "executed" by the U.S. government or New York state. Thus, a meme coin revolving around it was created.

This is both amusing and a reflection of reality. There may also be a subculture that expresses some dissatisfaction with the government, such as their inflationary policies. This phenomenon has also turned meme coins into a rapidly spreading attention market.

The Rapid Rise of Meme Coins Demonstrates Global Culture’s Responsiveness

Dreamer: We also have some existing ones like "blue-chip" meme coins, similar to those news-related meme coins you mentioned earlier. I think these meme coins will have ups and downs, but we also have some meme coins that have already stabilized, like Dogecoin. Some say it will rise to $1, do you think it's possible?

Arthur: I think it's possible. It's very interesting, especially when it comes to government efficiency departments or new "Elon" type characters, when they confirm something, it becomes a classic meme in itself. I wish I had bought some at that time because these memes are just too good and too amusing. Elon is a very excellent meme creator, perhaps one of the best meme creators in history. Although I have some doubts about his business model, in meme art, he is undoubtedly a genius. So, Dogecoin indeed could reach $1.

However, I think there will be a kind of "fall from grace" feeling when people realize how significant the gap is between government propaganda and actual outcomes. People may reconsider the meaning of these memes and the messages they convey. This shift will be very interesting.

Advice for Newcomers: Stay Rational and Take Profits Timely in a Bull Market

Dreamer: There are now many technologies that make it easier for people to launch new Layer 1 blockchain projects or meme coins. I believe we will see more creativity coming into this field, along with more trend towards specialization. Additionally, as you mentioned, the momentum from elections is very strong. Looking back at the past, such as the rise of DeFi and NFTs, as well as other previously hyped trends, the excitement at that time is very similar. So, what are some lessons learned or cautionary tales worth sharing? Especially for those experiencing a bull market for the first time, what would you advise them to pay attention to during this process? How can they avoid repeating mistakes in this "beautiful yet cruel world"?

Arthur: First of all, no one can profit from the market forever. Everyone knows that you can make quick money in a bull market, but the key is how to preserve those gains. For example, the meme coin you're holding right now may cease to exist in one or two months. Its market cap could drop from $200 million to $5 million, the change is so drastic. You can't predict these things.

Some statistics suggest that only about 0.01% of meme coin market caps can exceed $500 million, and most traders end up losing money. Many people see huge gains on paper, however, they always hold on to the feeling of "I can earn more," ultimately leading to losing the wealth they already had.

So, if you've earned some life-changing money, it's time to cash out a portion of it. The market will always have opportunities to come back. Perhaps you can take a break for a while, reassess the market, and stay rational.

Are There Potential Risks or Catalysts in the Market?

Scott: In this scenario, people are easily subjected to a roller-coaster-like market swing. As you mentioned, some assets may disappear in one or two months. Some people indeed make life-changing money in a matter of days, like the meme coin Peanut. But even coins with a market cap of $20 billion could also plummet quickly. Therefore, your point is valid; timely cashing out is necessary, whether it's meme coins or bitcoins, gradually exiting some positions is needed. As you said, taking profits will not cause losses.

Dreamer: Are there any "black swan events" or potential catalysts that could disrupt the market? Looking back over the past few years, such as the FTX crash or other unforeseen events, are there any trends or entities we need to be cautious of? Under the new Trump administration, has the market cleared these uncertainties, making it easier for development?

Arthur: I think many have already been cleared. Many people suffered heavy losses in the FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows, and Luna events. So, maybe now Bitcoin has already surged to $100,000 (perhaps that would be the price when you release this interview). But in the long run, when traditional financial funds see the rise in cryptocurrency prices, they will want to get involved, such as through venture capital.

Many venture capital firms have raised a lot of funds, similar to the previous cycle, they need to find big companies or important projects to invest in. In the early stages of the market, these funds are usually properly allocated and put to good use. However, as the bull market progresses, funds may flow into certain "hot areas" because investors have to invest to get returns. In such cases, you may see some business models built on the assumption of continual price increases, leading to risk accumulation, ultimately causing market imbalance.

Currently, I am not sure which sector specifically will see this scenario, but we have not yet reached the "overheated" stage. Especially as traditional financial capital enters, investment oversaturation may occur in some areas, which is where investors need to be cautious to avoid a "shakeout" when market prices detach from reality.

Dreamer: Yes, as you were speaking, I thought that when people have many successful trades, they become bored and crave that fast-profit feeling again. Currently, many Bitcoin layer-two protocols have announced profit-sharing plans, but where do these profits come from? We do not want to repeat the mistake of past high-profit promises without a real foundation. Others may seek more trends to pursue large profits, which will gradually increase risk. So, for those who experienced the last bull market, I hope they learn from it, and for newcomers, I also hope they learn from others' experiences.

A Casual Chat About Skiing

This interview was very exciting. We thank you very much for your time. There is an IFC event tonight—a credit showdown. I don't know if you and others have time to attend. This is a global event, and we really hope to have the opportunity to invite you in the future. I believe you will enjoy this kind of event, liking the competition and influential figures in the crypto field. Now, I'll hand it over to Scott to conclude this interview.

Scott: Yes, we thank you very much for your time, for sitting down with us to answer these questions. It would be great to see you at the IFC. One last light-hearted question: when you are not doing cryptocurrency-related things, what do you do? What hobbies do you have? How do you relax or detach from this work? For example, are you a food lover? Do you seek out new restaurants? Or are there other ways that keep you motivated?

Arthur: I really enjoy skiing. So, I spend three to four months each year on the mountain, immersed in the snow. During the ski season, I ski for eight hours every day. Apart from exercising and enjoying outdoor activities, I hardly do anything else. It makes me very happy.

Scott: Where is your favorite skiing destination?

Arthur: Niseko, Japan. Their powder snow is amazing, dry and light. It snows there every year in January and February, it's absolutely stunning.

Scott: So, are you preparing now? Are you getting ready?

Arthur: Yes, I'm getting ready for skiing. However, the only downside of Japanese ski resorts is that the slopes are not steep enough, lacking those very dramatic, steep, snowy runs.

Dreamer: Salt Lake City's ski resorts have a lake effect. I live in Singapore now, but used to live in the US and would go skiing often, but I'm a snowboarder.

Scott: Me too! While I still ski, I prefer snowboarding. Some places are just made for snowboarding.

Dreamer: Yeah, some places are perfect for it. Plus, you don't have snowboarders "tracking" your ski lines on the slopes.

Scott: That's awesome! It's been a few years since I hit the slopes, but it's a hobby I've always wanted to get back into. I'm from the US Northeast, grew up in New Jersey and New York, so hitting up Vermont for skiing was easy. However, I've been living in Houston for the past decade, so skiing isn't as convenient anymore. It's no longer a quick gear-up-and-drive-a-few-hours affair.

Scott: Have a blast in your upcoming ski adventures. I really want to experience skiing in Japan; I never realized they had such great skiing conditions. Definitely need to try it out sometime.

Bitcoin End-of-Year and 2025 Price Predictions

Scott: On a side note, let me ask you a specific question. Where do you think Bitcoin's price will be by the end of this year and at this time next year?

Arthur: I believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year and could hit $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Scott: There you have it, folks. This is Alpha First's first public prediction: Bitcoin's end-of-year price will reach $100,000, and a year from now, it could hit $250,000. Perhaps we'll have the opportunity to attend DevCon and other events next year to revisit this prediction. I hope it's not just $250,000 by then, but even higher.

Original Article Link

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia