On-chain meme sentiment is surging again. Do the "Plebs" still have a chance to become "Chad Hodlers"?

On the evening of January 18th US time, Trump released his own namesake token $TRUMP, causing Solana to surge by nearly 50%, breaking through its previous high and approaching the $300 mark. As of now, there has been some retracement, reigniting on-chain sentiment on the Solana network.

Another Dose of "On-Chain Sentiment Booster"

From an on-chain data analysis perspective, Solana network's active address data, transaction data, and other metrics saw a significant spike post $TRUMP release, even nearing all-time high levels. The Solana network experienced a substantial inflow of Web3 hodlers' funds and some Web2 incremental funds introduced by Moonshot. Moonshot officials stated that after being recommended as the preferred purchase method on the TRUMP website, the platform's trading volume reached $400 million in 12 hours. Additionally, over 400,000 new users have joined the Solana ecosystem through its application, reflecting a significant surge in on-chain sentiment on the Solana network.

Following the launch of the TRUMP coin, Solana network's gas fees experienced intense fluctuations. Due to the high transaction demand, severe transaction congestion occurred, leading to a sharp increase in transaction fees within a short period, even causing Binance to temporarily suspend withdrawals on the exchange as well as halting Solana network transactions.

The Infinite Loop of On-Chain PvP

Compared to November and December, from the perspective of prominent figures in the Web launching coins, the only high market cap projects that emerged were TRUMP and TRUMP's wife. However, an official Meme coin released at the leading US cryptocurrency conference Wagmi MIAMI from January 21st to January 24th faced a rapid "reset" in a fierce PvP battle. Similarly, the namesake token ZACHXBT officially "recognized" by on-chain detective ZACHXBT reset due to its lack of roadmap integrity. The slogan Trump mentioned multiple times in his inauguration speech, as well as the slogan "America Is Back" reposted on social media, saw the lifecycle of the namesake meme coin "AIB" last only 6 hours. The on-chain PvP atmosphere intensified, transforming on-chain transactions into a logic of "the fast and the furious."

However, when we look back at the equally active on-chain sentiment from September to November, the "Big Golden Dog" kept emerging, with Griffain, ARC, and Swarms continuously iterating and updating in the AI Agent field; there were also new concepts and perspectives related to DeSci with tokens such as Drugs, RIF, URO, and MIRA; the only one who may have achieved a short-term "wealth creation myth" would be $Trump.

After Trump took office as the President of the United States, the only tangible benefit for Web3 may have been the issuance of a meme token bearing his name. In his inauguration speech, there was no mention of the cryptocurrency market. After Trump came to power, the incremental funding for Web3 may have only come from Moonshot purchasing its namesake token, undoubtedly draining a significant amount of Web3's funds. When the market capitalization of the Trump token reached nearly $8 billion, the overall cryptocurrency market shrank by $20 billion. Smart money on-chain, with a broader vision, was drained, dealing a heavy blow to the meme. After all, "pump and dump is the real perspective"; without money, there is no perspective without pumping.

Returning to the AI Agent concept, the AI Agent concept seems to have almost completed the "audition" stage and is moving into the "elimination round" stage. Many AI Agent-related tokens that can be issued have already been issued, similar to the previous "hackathon scraper market" phase: the phase where projects that won awards at hackathons intensely issued coins has ended. Now, the transition is from "0 to 1" towards "1 to 100." The AI Agent market without being listed is betting on which AI Agent will be listed next, while listed AI Agents continue to compete on ecosystem technology.

CEX Pressuring DEX, Does the meme narrative have a future?

Currently, the AI Agent seems to be essentially locked in as the most important narrative of this cycle. AI Memes are constantly evolving. At present, in the first stage of memes, GOAT ACT has been largely eliminated, belonging to the kind of species that mainly fall with no rise. In the second stage, AI Agents have become the fiercest species during each market rebound. The "anti-VC" trend in this cycle is still ongoing. Recently launched so-called "value coins" or "VC coins" like SOLV and ME mostly plummeted shortly after listing. There is no one in the market willing to "catch" these "value coins," and there is even no discussion about "value coins."

For retail investors, the miracle of Web3 may only be seen on-chain. Coins that are already listed on exchanges to some extent have exhausted their positive news. In the increasingly challenging "pin ball" market, surviving through contracts is not easy, let alone creating trading miracles. The currently most active Solana Network and Base Network, with extremely low transaction fees, have also reduced the entry costs for the majority of retail investors.

Centralized exchanges (CEX) are gradually drifting away from retail investors. By going directly to the blockchain and bypassing venture capitalists and exchanges, retail investors can acquire high-quality assets at a low price. Starting from scratch on the blockchain has given birth to numerous blockchain behemoths with market capitalizations in the tens of billions of dollars and price increases of tens of thousands of times. The future lies on the blockchain, as decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume is steadily increasing. Perhaps one day in the not-so-distant future, DEX trading volume will surpass that of CEX.

From a more macro perspective, the blockchain narrative is far from over. Even Trump has not yet announced other bullish policies for crypto. If regulations on crypto are relaxed, more Web2 funds will flow into Web3 as incremental capital. This influx will not only appear on exchanges but will also manifest on the blockchain in the form of moonshots or more direct forms. Continued emergence of "Whale Alert" and "Big Events" will drive the growth of imagination. Player vs. Player (PVP) will transform into Player vs. Environment (PVE), attracting Web2 with a sustainable and alluring narrative of continued wealth creation.

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