Bull/Bear Sentiment Divide is severe, has the crypto bull market really ended?

Original Author: nobrainflip, Crypto Trader
Original Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article analyzes the current state of the crypto market, pointing out that the market is in a period of doubt and low sentiment, but there are still opportunities. The market will experience a slow retracement to attract retail investors to exit, while large players (such as BlackRock) are accumulating positions. Events such as the stablecoin index, FTX compensation, etc., may drive the market recovery.

The following is the original content (slightly rephrased for better readability):

We are currently at one of the most divisive points in time, with bulls believing this is the final dip before the start of the altcoin season, and bears believing the bull market has ended.

Here are all possible scenarios and when the market might reverse.

It is indeed difficult to determine which phase of the cycle we are in:

On the one hand, we have not yet seen a true altseason (although we have indeed experienced a memecoin season). On the other hand, Bitcoin has already exceeded its previous all-time high by 1.5 times (or just 1.5 times), and moreover, this bull run has lasted for 12 months since the last all-time high, making it longer than any previous bull run.

Essentially, the cycle has been disrupted, making it very difficult to predict what will happen next.

I believe there are three possible scenarios:

· This is the final dip before the start of altseason (Excitement)

· This is the beginning of the end of the bull market (Anxiety)

· The cycle has already ended (Anger)

I believe we are currently between the Anger and Depression stages, or at a stage of Belief/Excitement (which is nearly the same). For many, this may be a stage to exit the market, but for me, it is a stage full of opportunities.

Here's my view: I cannot say that retail investors are completely trapped. I believe the bullish sentiment in the market is still strong, so I do not think market makers will see this dip as the start of a bear market. The key is to understand that market makers aim to extract as much money as possible from retail investors (us).

In order to achieve this goal, in my opinion the most likely scenario is a slow market decline over a month or more—just enough to make believers lose hope but not enough to make them completely give up, eventually causing FOMO to re-enter the altcoin market. That's why I have started slowly accumulating positions because I believe there is still plenty of time now, and the price may still decline further.

Here are the key factors currently affecting the market and why I think so:

· Skepticism Towards Altseason

· Prolonged lack of a clear and direct altseason has had a negative impact on retail investors

· Now, it seems that no one believes in altseason anymore

· Most people have turned to the memecoin casino, while the rest have simply given up on altcoins

· This has led to a loss of hope, sentiment, and attention

Rampant Scams

· Never in any cycle have we seen so many and such overt scam activities

· Every three broke celebrities talk about cryptocurrency and launch tokens on SOL

· At the same time, they "rug" the token within a few days by -99%, and do so blatantly

· These events have had a negative impact on market sentiment

Trump - The Cryptocurrency-Friendly President

· Trump once brought us great hope: bullish on crypto, never selling Bitcoin, BTC reserves

· But in reality, he has now distanced himself from cryptocurrency, hardly mentioning it anymore

· This has also had a negative impact on the current market

· However, we still remember that the US Bitcoin reserves have been confirmed

Bybit Hacked

· The largest hack event in cryptocurrency history, resulting in a sharp drop in ETH

·Bybit suffered a hack with $1.5 billion worth of ETH stolen, which is a substantial amount

·Hacking incidents always have a negative impact on overall market sentiment and the market itself

Bitcoin as a Macro Asset

·There is still a belief that if Bitcoin rises like this, other coins will follow suit — but that is not necessarily the case

·Bitcoin has now partly become a macro asset, recognized globally

·This is why Bitcoin can rise, but the cryptocurrency market itself may not follow

·On the other hand, when Bitcoin falls, altcoins also fall

·This is because there is an oversupply of altcoins in the market, so it is crucial to understand: altcoins will rise, but not all of them, it's no longer 2021. Choose wisely.

Stablecoin Index

·On the other hand, we have the stablecoin index, which is far from reaching levels seen in past cycles

·This index represents new capital entering the crypto market

·Currently, it is just starting to grow

Global Liquidity Index

·There is another indicator tracking major central bank assets and the Fed's reserves

·Currently, we are witnessing its reversal, which also indicates a possible market turnaround

·Right now, it is also in a correction phase

FTX Compensation

·We also cannot forget FTX's compensation, which has begun

·Over the next few weeks, around $7 billion will be paid out, and these funds will also be reinvested back into the market

·This will also provide a nice boost for market growth

Key Market Player

· The most bullish factor still remains that key market players are actively accumulating

· WorldLiberty, Michael Saylor, BlackRock—these key companies are establishing large positions

· Clearly, they are not doing so without strategy or reason

Conclusion

· Considering all factors and the overall picture, the situation is not as bad as it may seem, but the fact remains:

We are currently in a phase of doubt

· It is precisely these moments that create the best opportunities

· Learn new skills, improve yourself before the market rises, and become a winner at the end of this cycle

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