Original Title: "Crypto Market Macro Report: From Tariffs to Crypto Asset Strategic Reserves, The Crypto Order of the Trump Era"

Original Source: Huobi Crypto Academy

Introduction: The New Crypto Market Order of the Trump Era

By 2025, the global financial market witnessed a new wave of changes. With Trump back in the White House, continuing his consistent economic nationalism policies, implementing tariffs, reshaping the supply chain, and strengthening the dominance of the US dollar, various policies were put in place. Simultaneously, as the US fiscal deficit continued to expand, the global trend of "de-dollarization" intensified, and the rise of the crypto asset market worldwide, the Trump administration's stance on cryptocurrency has undergone significant changes.

Against this backdrop, the concept of crypto asset strategic reserves has gradually come to the forefront and become a focal point of market attention. This report will delve into the impact of Trump administration's tariff policy on the global financial market and how its potential drive for crypto asset strategic reserve plans may affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more. Additionally, we will analyze potential changes in regulatory policies, adjustments in institutional investors' asset allocation strategies, and the future development direction of the overall crypto market.

1. The Macro Background of Trump's Economic Policy and the Crypto Market

1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and Capital Market Impact

Trump's economic policy has always been centered around "America First," a strategy that not only influenced the domestic economic landscape of the United States but also fundamentally changed the operating mode of the global capital markets and financial system. The Trump administration implemented a series of significant economic policies during the period of 2017-2021, including large-scale tax cuts, aggressive trade wars, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and control of dollar liquidity.

These policies fueled short-term economic growth in the United States but also led to a long-term increase in fiscal deficits and economic instability internationally. In 2025, with Trump being re-elected, the market generally expected his government to continue or even strengthen its past economic policies, especially in terms of tariff policies, US dollar strategies, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, all of which will have a profound impact on the crypto market.

In the increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only seen as investment targets but are also considered by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against the US dollar risk. The application of stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) in international trade settlements is also increasing, driving the digitization of the US dollar.

The economic policies of the Trump administration will have a profound impact on these trends. Its tariff policy may accelerate global capital allocation to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, liquidity management of the U.S. dollar will affect the funding supply of the crypto market, U.S. regulatory policies will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market, and a strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that Trump may promote is more likely to trigger a global market transformation.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its highly aggressive trade policy. The outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018-2019 led to a global supply chain restructuring and significant changes in capital flows. Faced with a new economic landscape in 2025, Trump is likely to reignite the trade war, imposing tariffs on economies such as China, the European Union, and Japan, attempting to re-establish America's manufacturing competitiveness through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be increased uncertainty in the international capital markets, with global investors seeking safe-haven assets, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become new safe-haven tools in this environment.

In fact, during the peak of the trade war in 2019, when Bitcoin's price surged from $3,000 to $13,000, the market widely believed that capital was flowing into the crypto market as a hedge against traditional market risks. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially against the backdrop of a damaged U.S. dollar credit system, making Bitcoin's attractiveness even stronger.

In addition to the impact of the trade war on the global capital markets, the fiscal policy of the Trump administration is also a key factor influencing the crypto market. In 2017, Trump implemented a large-scale tax cut policy, reducing the corporate tax rate and increasing the government's fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may take similar measures to stimulate U.S. economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investments, and increased military spending.

These policies may boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but they will also exacerbate the fiscal deficit and put pressure on the U.S. dollar credit system. An increase in the fiscal deficit usually means the government needs to fill the funding gap through debt issuance or monetary easing, and if the market expects the Fed to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, market liquidity will increase, which is often favorable for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

In fact, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Fed in 2020-2021 was one of the key drivers of the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration promotes a new round of fiscal stimulus and the Fed is somewhat compelled to ease its monetary policy, the market may usher in a new cycle of cryptocurrency price rallies.

1.2 U.S. Dollar Liquidity and the Cyclical Relationship with the Crypto Market

As the global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may undergo changes under the Trump administration's policies. Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the strong dollar during his first term, believing that the dollar's overvaluation has harmed the competitiveness of US manufacturing. By 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to drive the dollar's depreciation to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit. If a trend of dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of dollar devaluation, with Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets potentially becoming new directions for capital inflows.

Particularly on a global scale, some countries have begun exploring the process of de-dollarization. For example, Russia and China have reduced their reliance on the dollar in international trade, and Middle Eastern countries are also attempting to use the Renminbi or other currencies for oil settlements. If the Trump administration's policies accelerate the de-dollarization process, the global demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin may further increase, propelling the crypto market into a new development stage.

The US domestic crypto regulatory policy may undergo significant changes during the Trump era. Trump's attitude toward crypto assets was somewhat ambiguous during his first term, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressing a desire to strengthen regulation of the crypto market to prevent assets like Bitcoin from being used in illicit transactions. However, during the 2024 election process, Trump and his allies began showing a more positive attitude toward crypto assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology could bring new financial innovation and economic growth opportunities to the US.

In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the US crypto regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, easing legal restrictions on crypto transactions and investments, and supporting the further development of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, they will bring significant growth opportunities to the US crypto market and also have a demonstrative effect on global markets, prompting other countries to adjust their stance toward the crypto market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may push for the establishment of a "Cryptocurrency Asset Strategic Reserve Plan," incorporating Bitcoin and other crypto assets into the national reserve system. The proposal of this policy may be based on several factors, including combating dollar credit risk, seizing a dominant position in the global crypto market, and ensuring US leadership in the digital asset field in international competition.

If the US government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will experience unprecedented market recognition and may become a significant part of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed any ETF or institutional investment entry; it signifies formal recognition of Bitcoin at the sovereign nation level and may trigger follow-ups from other countries worldwide.

1.3 Institutional Investors' Reconfiguration of the Crypto Market

Over the past few years, institutional investors' acceptance of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration advances a crypto asset strategic reserve and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will undergo significant changes. In the long run, this may lead to mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum entering more national and institutional investment portfolios, driving further market maturation.

Overall, the Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. Trade wars may accelerate capital flows into crypto assets, fiscal deficits and dollar depreciation may increase demand for Bitcoin, and regulatory adjustments may further drive the development of the U.S. crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately advances a crypto asset strategic reserve plan, Bitcoin may experience a historic institutional recognition, fundamentally altering the global financial system's landscape. Throughout this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the global capital markets' response to these policies to seize future opportunities for crypto market development.

II. Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve: Policy Background and Potential Impact

2.1 U.S. Government's Promotion of Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve: Policy Background

After returning to office in 2025, the Trump administration's core economic policy still revolves around "America First," which not only means re-evaluating the global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar but may also indicate the government's consideration of diversifying part of the national reserves to hedge against dollar credit risk.

For a long time, the U.S. dollar, as the world's major reserve currency, has given the United States unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rising U.S. debt levels, expanding fiscal deficits, adjustments in interest rate policies, and questioning of the U.S. dollar's dominant status by various countries, the dollar's reserve status is being challenged.

On the one hand, the U.S. government's fiscal deficit issue has become a focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the U.S. government debt levels have been surging, surpassing $34 trillion by the end of 2024 and still rapidly growing. This has weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the dollar, prompting countries to explore reserve assets beyond the dollar.

Since the Trump administration took office, to further drive fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, the U.S.'s fiscal deficit issue may worsen. If the market anticipates an increased risk of dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate adjustments to their reserve asset allocations, with decentralized assets like Bitcoin potentially becoming an alternative to the dollar.

On the other hand, the accelerated process of de-dollarization has also prompted the U.S. government to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries globally have reduced their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade settlement. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting towards local currency settlement, while countries like the UAE and India are exploring using the Renminbi or other currencies for oil trade settlement.

This trend has weakened the global influence of the U.S. dollar, leading the U.S. government to take new measures to uphold its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views a strategic reserve of crypto assets as a new tool in global financial strategy, then Bitcoin may be formally incorporated into the U.S.'s official reserve system as a potential weapon against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

Furthermore, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is gradually evolving. Although Trump openly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it "based on thin air, without real value," his stance has notably changed during the 2024 election campaign. On the one hand, Trump's team is increasingly recognizing the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and seeking support from the crypto industry. On the other hand, U.S. institutional investors have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings in the past few years. Institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, attracting billions of dollars in investments.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginal asset class but is becoming an integral part of the global financial system. If the U.S. government aims to dominate this market, establishing a "crypto asset strategic reserve" would be a strategic choice in line with its national interests.

2.2 Potential Impact of a Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve

Firstly, this policy could significantly alter the market's perception of Bitcoin's value and drive Bitcoin's price into a new valuation paradigm. The current market's primary pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (21 million total supply), inflation hedge properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the U.S. government formally includes Bitcoin in its national reserves, this would mean that Bitcoin would transition from an "alternative asset" to a "national reserve asset," fundamentally changing its market perception. For decades, gold has been a significant part of global central bank reserves, and if Bitcoin is integrated into the same system, its market valuation could experience exponential growth.

The current global gold market is approximately $13 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is only around $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is granted a similar reserve function as gold, its market cap could reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, i.e., $4-6 trillion or more, with a corresponding Bitcoin price of over $200,000. This means that the U.S. government's policy decisions will directly impact Bitcoin's long-term value and could trigger a new bull run.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the US dollar's global reserve currency status. Traditionally, the US dollar's ability to become the primary global reserve currency has relied mainly on the strength of the US economy, the global liquidity of the dollar, and the stability of dollar-denominated assets (such as US Treasury bonds).

However, if the US government starts to include Bitcoin in its reserves, this could signal to the market that the US government itself is also considering US dollar credit risk and attempting to hedge through Bitcoin. This could intensify market concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar and prompt other countries to adjust their reserve structures, encouraging more central banks to hold Bitcoin. Once this trend takes hold, it could potentially weaken the US dollar's global dominance and accelerate the multipolarization of the global financial system.

At the same time, the US government holding Bitcoin could also impact the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries are already attempting to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies, such as El Salvador becoming the first country globally in 2021 to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender and gradually increasing its national Bitcoin reserves.

Additionally, countries like Russia and Iran are exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to circumvent Western financial sanctions. If the US government takes the lead in action by including Bitcoin in its national reserves, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being in a passive position in future global financial system competition. This could lead to a global "national-level Bitcoin reserve race," thereby affecting the global financial landscape.

Finally, this policy could also trigger a chain reaction in the US domestic cryptocurrency market regulatory environment. Currently, cryptocurrency market regulation in the US remains relatively uncertain, with disagreements between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) on regulatory jurisdiction over cryptocurrency assets. However, if the US government decides to include Bitcoin in its national reserves, this would mean that Bitcoin's legal status could be formally established, driving further clarity in related regulatory frameworks. This could provide a clearer compliance path for the US cryptocurrency market, attract more institutional funds into the market, and further accelerate Bitcoin's mainstreaming process.

In conclusion, the US government's implementation of a "crypto asset strategic reserve" is not only a significant blow to the global financial system but may also fundamentally alter Bitcoin's market positioning and influence the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may cause significant market fluctuations in the short term, but in the long run, it could be a milestone event in Bitcoin's development history, ushering the global financial system into a new era.

Three, Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

3.1 Long-Term Trends and Future Prospects in the Cryptocurrency Market

The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from various perspectives such as macroeconomic trends, policy environment, market structure changes, and technological advancements. The policy of the Trump administration may serve as a catalyst for driving a new bull market, but its long-term impact will depend on multiple variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of global de-dollarization, the level of institutional investor participation, and the policy orientation of emerging markets.

Firstly, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor influencing the long-term trend of the crypto market. The current global economy faces a series of challenges such as de-globalization, inflation pressure, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts, all of which may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Historical experience has shown that during periods of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets like gold are often favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually acquiring a similar safe-haven function. If the U.S. government formally recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Bitcoin will gain further market trust and may potentially replace some market share of gold.

Secondly, the level of institutional investor participation will be a key variable determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, Bitcoin ETF products from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in inflows, and if the U.S. government establishes a "crypto asset strategic reserve," more sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and central banks may accelerate their Bitcoin allocations. This will further drive the maturity of the Bitcoin market, gradually transforming it from a high-volatility asset into a stable store of value tool.

Furthermore, the accelerated global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. Currently, economies including China, Russia, Iran, India, and other countries are actively exploring de-dollarization paths to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar.

If Bitcoin becomes part of the U.S. government's reserve assets, other countries around the world may have to reassess their attitude towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit by increasing Bitcoin's share in their foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain their currency stability. This policy game will directly affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.

3.2 Investment Strategy and Market Opportunity Analysis

Against the backdrop of profound changes in market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Whether individual or institutional investors, they need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and identify the most promising investment opportunities.

First, the investment thesis for Bitcoin is set to change. In the past, Bitcoin was primarily seen as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may be more commonly viewed as "digital gold" or a "central bank reserve asset." This means that Bitcoin's price volatility may gradually decrease, and long-term Bitcoin holders may enjoy stable value appreciation. For investors, adopting a "HODL" (Hold On for Dear Life) strategy may be the best way to navigate market changes, especially as Bitcoin's long-term value proposition gains greater support from government policies.

Second, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. With governments around the world having divergent policies towards Bitcoin, varying regulatory environments could lead to price disparities across different markets. For example, if some countries impose strict restrictions on Bitcoin trading while the U.S. government actively promotes Bitcoin reserve plans, significant price divergences may occur in the global market. Savvy investors can capitalize on these differences through cross-market arbitrage trading.

Furthermore, the role of the derivatives market will be further strengthened. Currently, Bitcoin futures, options, and other derivative markets are relatively mature, and with institutional investors entering the space, the market's demand for Bitcoin risk management will increase. In the future, we may see more sophisticated financial instruments introduced to the crypto market, such as Bitcoin-based bonds, structured products, and more. For professional investors, utilizing these tools for risk hedging and yield optimization will be a key trend in the future market.

On the other hand, apart from Bitcoin, other opportunities in the crypto asset market are also worth noting. While Bitcoin may become a primary national reserve asset, the ecosystems of smart contract platforms like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and others are still rapidly expanding. If government and institutional funds start flowing into the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Particularly in the areas of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, new market opportunities may arise in the future. For instance, some countries may explore issuing blockchain-based government bonds or using smart contract technology to streamline financial transaction processes, all of which could create new investment opportunities for investors.

3.3 Risk Factors and Mitigation Strategies

Despite the potential long-term benefits that the Trump administration's policies may bring to the crypto market, investors still need to be aware of potential risk factors and develop corresponding mitigation strategies.

Firstly, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. While the Trump administration may support a strategic reserve of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still hinges on various factors, including congressional approval, the stance of the Federal Reserve, cooperation from the Treasury Department, and reactions from other global nations. If policy advancement is hindered, the market may experience significant fluctuations. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor policy developments and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market has matured significantly compared to the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If a government or a large institution were to suddenly adjust their Bitcoin holdings, the market could experience severe fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid over-leveraging and adopt a strategy of staggered buying or selling during periods of high market volatility to reduce market impact risk.

Additionally, geopolitical factors could also impact the crypto market. As global competition between countries intensifies, some nations may take measures to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened cryptocurrency regulations several times in the past few years, and if the U.S. government were to push for a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, other countries might take corresponding retaliatory measures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure portfolio diversification to mitigate risks from specific policy changes.

Lastly, technological risk remains a significant challenge for the crypto market. While the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, hacker attacks, and more. Investors should choose exchanges with high security standards and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets, diversifying investments across different asset classes, to reduce potential technological risks.

IV. Conclusion

Against the backdrop of a significant transformation in the global financial system, whether the U.S. government will formally include Bitcoin and other crypto assets in its national strategic reserves has become a focus of the market. With the Trump administration's changing attitude towards crypto assets and the acceleration of global de-dollarization, the possibility of establishing a "crypto asset strategic reserve" is gradually increasing.

If this policy were to be implemented, it would be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a century, potentially impacting the reserve status of the U.S. dollar, international financial gamesmanship, market liquidity, sovereign currency competition, and the perception of Bitcoin's value. Therefore, there is a need to deeply explore the potential motivations, policy background, global macro environment, and broad market impacts of the Trump administration's push for this policy.

Against the background of the Trump administration promoting the concept of a "crypto asset strategic reserve," the global financial markets are undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transitioning from speculative investments to potential national reserve assets, gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system.

This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself but also have far-reaching implications for the global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar, traditional financial markets, sovereign currency systems, and institutional and individual investment strategies. The crypto market is at a crucial stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the U.S. government formally includes crypto assets in its strategic reserves, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will have unprecedented development opportunities.

We advise investors to closely monitor policy changes and seek the best investment opportunities during market fluctuations. The Trump administration's proposed "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve" could become a key milestone in global financial system reform and propel the Bitcoin market into a new development stage. For investors, this policy could bring unprecedented market opportunities, but also comes with greater uncertainty.

In the future market environment, key factors for successful investment will include long-term Bitcoin holdings, monitoring policy developments, taking advantage of market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing portfolio structures, and managing market risks. As the global financial system evolves, cryptocurrencies will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp the trends will reap the greatest benefits from this transformation.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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