TON: The Rise and Fall of a Wave - A Narrative of VC, Exchange, and Traffic Frenzy

2025-03-11 13:13

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Original Title: "The Rise and Fall of TON: A Narrative of VC, Exchanges, and Traffic Frenzy — Starting from the Detainment of Yescoin's Founder"

I. The "Destined Cycle" Between Yescoin and TON

Recently, the founder of Yescoin was taken away by the Uncle with a Hat, causing a stir on Twitter. Just a month ago, Zhang Chang was still updating his entrepreneurial reflections, and millions of users also played the Telegram clicker game last year.

Following my curiosity, I discovered in the disclosed information a mention of "missing the best issuance opportunity in May 24 years ago," which inevitably reminded me of the TON ecosystem's madness half a year ago.

Back then, VCs and KOLs were shouting, "TON will become the WeChat of Web3," the social media was filled with the myth of "click and get rich instantly," exchanges were rushing to list TON ecosystem projects, and retail investors were madly creating Telegram alts to "participate in airdrops"... And now, Yescoin's predicament is like a mirror, reflecting the parabolic trajectory of the TON ecosystem from its peak to its decline...

II. The Rise: VC, Exchanges, and TG's "Triad" of Hype

1. VC Hype: From narrative to pump-and-dump's precise design. In 2024, Pantera Capital made a high-profile bullish call on TON, positioning it as the "Web3 super app gateway," igniting market sentiment. At that time, TON's on-chain TVL skyrocketed 20 times in two months to $6 billion, surpassing Ethereum in user growth rate. VCs understood the logic of "traffic equals valuation": Telegram's billion user pool was an unreachable "rich mine" for any public chain.

2. Exchange Rush: The "harvesting race" in the traffic oasis. Exchanges like Binance, OKX, quickly sniffed out the business opportunity and rushed to list TON ecosystem projects. Games like Notcoin, Catizen, quickly gained popularity through "zero barriers + social virality." Notcoin surpassed 35 million users, and Catizen attracted 20 million fans in two months, achieving a billion-dollar market cap upon launch. The influx of Telegram users to exchanges resembled the "Pinduoduo-style virality" of the Web2 era, and exchanges needed this "data-driven growth" story for their financial reports.

3. Telegram's "Sunspiracy": Payment and Business Loop Telegram Founder Durov has publicly supported TON multiple times, even launching the embedded wallet TON Space, connecting the "communication + payment + game" loop. Tether issued stablecoins on the TON chain, officially launched a $5 million developer incentive plan, and every step points to the ambition of transforming Telegram's social empire into a crypto economy.

It is precisely this collusion of the three that has driven the heyday of the TON ecosystem.

Early participants who encountered projects like Notcoin and Dogs saw the token price reach $30. This wave also allowed a group of Telegram ID traders engaged in cross-border e-commerce operations to make a fortune, with some making millions of dollars in a single night. It was quite shocking for me at the time: So this is what airdrops in the TON ecosystem are like?

After Binance listed Notcoin and Dogs, the drama finally reached its climax—Binance finally listed TON, with the coin price surging to $8, followed by the listing of several star projects like Catizen and Hmster.

However, as a deep participant in the TON ecosystem, the author also realized a significant issue: the value of airdrops began to rapidly decline after TON was listed on Binance. It was at this moment that I started shorting TON ecosystem tokens, and looking back, this was an incredibly correct decision.

Three, Ebb Tide: Value Collapse after Exhaustion of Traffic

1. User Fatigue: From "Nationwide Carnival" to "Chaos"

In the later stage of the TON ecosystem, the project teams and trading platforms jointly promoted "TON Ecosystem Month," with gameplay still revolving around check-ins, referrals, and gas consumption. However, the trading platforms gradually woke up to reality: the so-called "1 billion user pool" had a conversion rate of less than 1%, and most people only came for airdrops. As the price dropped from a peak of $8 to less than $3, even the most loyal community members began to sell off.

2. VC, Trading Platform Exit: Narrative Collapse and Capital Cashout

Early investors like Pantera quietly reduced their holdings, and the frequency of trading platforms listing TON-related projects plummeted. Analysts who once shouted "TON will surpass WeChat" began to shift their focus to AI and other emerging narratives. Telegram had already earned enough in fees through ecosystem partnerships and became profitable in 2024, leaving only retail investors lamenting at the parabolic K-line chart: What about the promised web3 WeChat?

The project behind the TON ecosystem has expanded from early mini-games like Catizen and Hmster to more and more mini-games and DeFi applications. However, it's essentially just a change of packaging without any substantial innovation.

As a witness and observer, watching the TON ecosystem's valuation go from $1 billion to $100 million and then to a market value of just a few million dollars, Binance did not list any TON ecosystem projects after Hmster. Watching it go from a feast in a grand banquet hall to a collapsed building.

Ending: The Moment of Awakening, Continuing to Chase the Wind

At the beginning of the TON ecosystem, the author purchased 32 TON tokens, hoping to experience Telegram's rise through these 32 TON tokens, becoming a super app like web3 WeChat, and seeing the wallet balance on the TON network appreciate continuously like gold.

But now the dream is over. It has made us see the scythe of VCs, the traffic magic of trading platforms, and the collective madness of human nature under the temptation of sudden wealth. The TON story is not over yet. Perhaps as Durov said, "Telegram will always belong to the rebels."

It's just the next rebellion. It shouldn't be a betrayal of self-rationality. Can you and I sniff the wind earlier than the VCs and press the button faster than the trading platforms?