Original Article Title: "Tariff Winds Intensify Market Chaos, On-chain Signals Hard to Verify: How Should Bitcoin Make Its Next Move? | WTR 4.14"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Review

From April 7th to April 14th, Bitcoin reached a high near $86,100 and a low close to $74,508, with an oscillation range of approximately 15.56%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there was a large amount of chips traded around 80,000, providing some support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000 approximately 1.51 million coins;
2. 76000-89000 approximately 1.72 million coins;
3. 90000-100000 approximately 1.99 million coins;

• The probability of not falling below 70,000-75,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not rising above 85,000-90,000 in the short term is 80%.

Important News Aspects

Economic News Aspect

• Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold target price from $3,300/ounce to $3,700/ounce (up 12%).
• Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller believes that the high inflation caused by tariffs is temporary. In a small-scale tariff scenario, a rate cut may occur in the second half of the year. In a large-scale tariff scenario, if the economy slows significantly, there may be a preference for earlier and more significant rate cuts.

US Economic Data and Expectations:

• The New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for the US in March rose to 3.58% (higher than the expected 3.26% and the previous value of 3.13%).
• The New York Fed expects the US unemployment rate in March to rise to the highest level since April 2020.
• March inflation CPI fell to 2.4%. Tariff policy and its impact:
• Trump's tariff measures changed again last weekend, exempting some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs."
• Economists believe the exemption is due to the realization that the tariff shock and its resulting chain reaction have hit a sore spot.
• Analysis suggests that the exemption is a sign of US concession, possibly under pressure from the bond market (the bond market is seen as Trump's top priority).
• Analyst James Van Straten believes that Trump's tariff uncertainty triggered the market sell-off that began on April 3rd.
• Fox reporter Charles Gasparino believes that the market's reaction to the "Tim Apple tariff exemption" will be positive, potentially boosting the Nasdaq.

• Investors widely view the tariff plan as one of the worst policies in recent years. Trump's unpredictable tariff measures have shaken market confidence in U.S. policy and the economy.

U.S. Treasury Bonds:

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has stated that he is prepared to deal with the chaos in the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury bond market, believing the Fed will only intervene in times of market panic.
• Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury bond market saw a selloff of $29 trillion, marking the worst week of 2019.
• Looking back at March 2020, the U.S. Treasury bond market collapse forced the Federal Reserve to carry out trillions of dollars in bond purchases to intervene.

Economic Recession Concerns:

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned that the U.S. economic recession may have already begun, with economic pressures and protectionist trade policies being key driving factors.

Market Focus and Outlook:

• Market focus may shift from tariff-related negativity to rate cut expectations, possibly marking the beginning of a new market trend.
• Easing inflation pressures may provide room for the Fed to cut rates in the May and June meetings and loosen financial conditions.
• Analysts are watching for the Fed's market intervention timing.

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News:

• U.S. Senator Tim Scott expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to become law by August 2025.
• The Senate Banking Committee has advanced the Stablecoin Regulation Bill, known as the "GENIUS Act," in March 2025, prioritizing crypto policy and emphasizing innovation ahead of regulation to maintain U.S. leadership.
• SEC Acting Director Mark Uyeda has indicated a temporary crypto regulatory framework could be considered to allow business innovation while permanent solutions are developed to promote blockchain innovation.

Institutional and Corporate Developments:

• BlackRock's BUIDL Fund has reached a scale of $23.72 billion, with a weekly growth rate of 25.07%.
• Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that their stablecoin user base grew by 13% in Q1 2025.
• Japanese publicly traded company Metaplanet Inc. announced holding an additional 319 BTC.
• MicroStrategy increased its BTC holdings by $2.858 billion (equivalent to 3,459 BTC) from April 7th to 13th.
• Tether issued an additional $10 billion in stablecoin on April 12th.

Market Insights and Analysis:

• White House President's Working Group on Financial Markets Director Bo Hines (as reported by Cointelegraph) stated the need to accumulate before BTC becomes more expensive.
• Analyst James Van Straten pointed out that the BTC/VIX ratio has touched a long-term trend line, historical data shows that this often foreshadows the BTC price bottom (previously effective timing points: August 2024, March 2020, August 2015). If the support holds, BTC may have already established a long-term bottom.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes that the turmoil in the U.S. bond market and subsequent Fed interventions may lead investors to turn to BTC as a hedge against currency instability (similar to the situation in 2020).
• Analysts believe that economic slowdown may prompt the Fed to change its tightening policy, triggering new liquidity and becoming a major catalyst for BTC and other crypto assets.
• Looking back at March 2020 when the Fed intervened in the bond market, the crypto market also saw a clear uptrend.

Long-Term Insights: Used to observe our long-term outlook; Bull Market / Bear Market / Structural Changes / Neutral State

Medium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze which stage we are currently in, how long this stage will continue, and what situations we will face

Short-Term Observations: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the likelihood of certain events under certain premises

Long-Term Insights

• Holder Structure and Belief HODL Wave
• ETF Structural Impact
• Long-Term Illiquidity Whales
• Transaction Platform Status of Large Whales

(Below Figure Holder Structure and Belief HODL Wave)

After experiencing multiple market cycles, the group of long-term holders (LTH) continues to grow, constituting the market's "ballast.".

Although some old coins (such as 2 y-5 y) have moved during price peaks (taking profits), the proportion of the oldest part (e.g.,>5 y, purple area) has remained relatively stable or even slightly thickened during recent consolidation. This indicates that the most steadfast believers among long-term holders have not panicked or sold off due to recent fluctuations, providing solid foundational support to the market.

The core narrative of the HODL Wave Chart is the continuous maturation of supply. Over time, newly incoming supply (warm colors) gradually ages (turns into cold colors) and is absorbed by more steadfast holders. The current consolidation period, while putting pressure on short-term holders, also provides a time window for more Bitcoin to move from short-term holders to mid-term holders, which is conducive to a healthier upward movement in the future.

(Structural Impact of ETF in the chart below)

Although recent ETF flows have weakened, the current slowdown in flows can be seen as a normalization after the initial frenzy, as well as a response to current macro uncertainty.

As long as the macro environment improves or new market catalysts emerge, the ETF channel could easily become an important source of incremental capital at any time. Its mere presence enhances the maturity of Bitcoin as an asset class and its long-term appeal.

(Long-term Whales of Illiquid Supply in the chart below)

The Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio (ISSR) exhibits a clear cyclical nature. Historically, sustained ISSR growth (orange line rising, blue region positive) often accompanies the accumulation phase of a bull market. The current plateau phase indicates that the strong coin hoarding momentum remains robust.

(Trading Platform Status of Large Whales in the chart below)

Intensifying Divergence, Not Unidirectional Selling: Current net inflows coexist with net outflows, reflecting more complex operations and disagreements among large players (whales).

• On one hand, some early profit-takers or whales concerned about the macro environment are transferring tokens to exchanges during rebounds (net inflows), exerting selling pressure.
• On the other hand, there are also whales actively withdrawing from exchanges during price pullbacks (net outflows), which is usually seen as a bullish and hoarding behavior.

This divergence state may persist for some time. The clarification of mid-term trends requires observation of which force dominates: whether continuous net inflows suppress the price or net outflows start to dominate, indicating that large players are beginning to accumulate on a large scale again. Of course, even in the presence of short-term selling, the behavior of whales accumulating (net outflows) at key support levels or when they believe the value is undervalued is a crucial prerequisite for the market to establish a bottom and begin the next major uptrend.

Outlook:

On-chain data paints a picture of short-term volatility, mid-term significance, and long-term structural optimism:

• Short-term: The market is in a consolidation phase, with ETF momentum weakening. Divergent behavior among large players is causing a tug of war between bulls and bears. Prices may continue to fluctuate or face downside risks. It is important to monitor changes in the macro environment and marginal improvements in on-chain supply-demand indicators.

• Mid-term: Whether the market can resume its uptrend depends on:

1. Favorable changes in the macro environment (e.g., interest rate cuts);
2. Whether ETF fund flows can sustain net inflows;
3. Whether large players shift from divergence to net accumulation (continuous net outflows from exchanges);
4. Whether illiquid whales are increasing their positions again;
5. Within the HODL wave, whether the supply can mature further and the pressure from short-term holders can be released.

Therefore, despite facing short-term challenges and volatility, from a medium- to long-term perspective, as long as the core on-chain structure (such as LTH holdings, supply maturity) remains intact and new demand-driving factors (potentially from macro improvements, continued ETF adoption, or new market narratives) emerge, the crypto market (especially Bitcoin) still has the potential for further growth.

Mid-term Exploration

• Whale Composite Score
• Short-term Profit Percentage Compound Model
• VDD
• Price Level Structure Analysis
• Network Sentiment Positivity

(Below Image: Whale Composite Score)

Whales have recently extensively participated in the market and are currently an important holding group in the market.

(Below Image: Short-term Profit Percentage Compound Model)

The short-term profit structure remains relatively healthy, showing no signs of excessive profits in a stock environment (i.e., the green sell pressure zone). The issue may lie with participants switching between overall positive and negative states. The environment is relatively neutral, and the taut macro environment continues to push the boundaries of market participants' choices.

(Below Image: VDD)

The current area is still a holding area with relatively good risk/reward ratio. The selling pressure from large holders remains contained within a specific range. As the pricing model gradually stabilizes within the exchange, deleveraging activities may become less frequent. This would be a relatively advantageous holding position.

(See the Price Structure Analysis below)

In the short term, the market has gradually moved away from oversold levels (79,000), but the main issue within the exchange currently is not selling pressure. Instead, it is the sustainability of buying power and the level of liquidity restoration.

(See the Network Sentiment Positivity below)

The network sentiment has been fluctuating between positive and negative. In a tense game environment, market participants as a whole also seem indecisive. From a liquidity perspective, a unified direction has yet to emerge.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Factor
• Option Intent Trading Ratio
• Derivative Trading Volume
• Option Implied Volatility
• Profit & Loss Transfer Amount
• New and Active Addresses
• Net Long Position on Candied Orange Trading Platform
• Net Long Position on Auntie Trading Platform
• High Holder Selling Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Trading Platform Net Position
• Off-chain Trading Platform Data

Derivative Rating: The risk factor is in the red zone, indicating an increased derivative risk.

(See the Derivative Risk Factor below)

Last week, the market experienced a rapid decline, and along with the recovery, the risk factor has once again entered the red zone. As market sentiment has not fully recovered, it is anticipated this week that a "long and short double explosion" may occur for derivatives.

(See the Option Intent Trading Ratio below)

The put option ratio and trading volume have both decreased, but the current put option ratio remains at a high level.

(Next Chart: Derivatives Trading Volume)

Derivatives trading volume has dropped to a relatively low level, but the derivatives market is destined to remain active this week.

(Next Chart: Option Implied Volatility)

Option implied volatility has experienced rapid fluctuations in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral

(Next Chart: Profit and Loss Transfer Volume)

It was mentioned last week that if the orange line (panic selling) touched the phase high again, it would be a relatively good buying zone. This week, market panic and positive sentiment have both fallen again. It is expected that even if there is a short-term rebound in the future, the upside potential may be limited.

(Next Chart: New and Active Addresses)

New active addresses are at a moderate-low level. Spot market and selling pressure structure rating: Both BTC and ETH have seen significant outflows.

(Next Chart: Sugar Exchange Net Inflow)

Currently, BTC has seen significant outflows.

(Next Chart: Ether Exchange Net Inflow)

Currently, ETH has seen significant outflows.

(Next Chart: Heavy Selling Pressure)

Heavy selling pressure has eased.
Buyer Power Rating: Global buyer power is in a slight recovery, stablecoin buyer power has seen a minor increase.

(Global Purchasing Power Status)

The global purchasing power has currently shifted from a declining trend to a very weak rebound status.

(USDT Exchange Net Inflows)

Stablecoin purchasing power has seen a slight recovery.
Off-chain transaction data assessment: Buying interest at 75000; Selling interest at 90000.

(Coinbase Off-chain Data)

Buying interest at price levels around 70000 to 75000;
Selling interest at price level 90000.

(Binance Off-chain Data)

Buying interest at price levels around 70000 to 75000;
Selling interest at price level 90000.

(Bitfinex Off-chain Data)

Buying interest at price level 76000;

Weekly Summary:

Key Highlights:

The current market landscape is a blend of severe macroeconomic uncertainty and structural developments within the cryptocurrency space. The U.S. economy is facing recession concerns (yield curve warning, rising unemployment rate) and potential inflationary pressures (tariff impact, previous inflation data), leading to high uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path, becoming a central focus for the market. Significant volatility in the U.S. bond market (Dimon's warning, recent sell-offs) and the unpredictable tariff policies further intensify market confidence shake-ups, boosting safe-haven assets (gold hitting record highs) and suppressing risk appetite.

In this context, although the cryptocurrency asset market is under pressure, it has shown internal resilience: the US regulatory environment is becoming clearer (Infrastructure Bill, Stablecoin Bill advancing), institutions continue to enter (BlackRock fund growth, increased holdings by MicroStrategy, etc.), simple indicators (on-chain data) suggest a potential bottom, and the stablecoin ecosystem remains active.

Looking ahead, the direction of cryptocurrency assets will heavily depend on macroeconomic developments: if an economic slowdown prompts the Fed to cut interest rates and inject liquidity, while regulation continues to progress, then the crypto market is expected to benefit from a resurgence in risk appetite and the potential "digital gold" narrative; conversely, if stubborn inflation or severe recession leads to persistent tightening or extreme risk aversion, then the crypto market faces significant downside risks. Therefore, despite fundamental improvements in the crypto industry, its short-term performance will still be closely linked to macroeconomic trends and Fed policy, and market high volatility is expected to continue.

On-chain Long-Term Insights:

1. The growth rate of illiquid supply has recently significantly slowed down, indicating that the marginal accumulation momentum of long-term whales is weakening at a high level;

2. Although the long-term holder base appears stable, the supply aging rate is slowing down and short-term holders account for a higher proportion, signaling a structural adjustment period in the market;
3. Significant two-way tug-of-war in large fund flows on exchanges reflects prominent divergence and game theory among large holders at the current price level;
4. Outflow momentum of US Bitcoin spot ETF funds has weakened, and recently even turned into unstable coexistence of inflows and outflows, demonstrating simultaneous selling pressure and demand.

• Market Tone:

Selling pressure and buying demand coexist.
The current market is at a key stage of high consolidation, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting key price levels.
Therefore, in the short term, the market may continue its pattern of ranging adjustments, with the future direction highly dependent on the clarity of macroeconomic signals and the emergence of new demand catalysts.

On-chain Mid-Term Probe:

1. Whales have become an important market holding group.
2. Short-term profits are healthy, emotions are in transition.
3. The current price level has a high risk-reward ratio, and selling pressure is shrinking.
4. Currently above oversold levels (79,000), buying power awaits improvement.
5. Market sentiment swings, liquidity direction is unclear.

• Market Tone:

Lingering
The market has a large group of support, but overall still lingers, with wavering emotions. Judging by the current tone, a relatively choppy market seems fitting.

On-Chain Short-Term Observation:

1. The risk factor is in the red zone, increasing derivative risk.
2. The number of new active addresses is relatively low.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. Exchange net flows show significant outflows of both BTC and ETH.
5. Global purchasing power is slightly rebounding, with stablecoin purchasing power seeing a minor increase.
6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 75,000; selling interest at 90,000.
7. There is a 70% probability that the short-term support level will hold in the range of 70,000 to 75,000; with an 80% probability that the short-term resistance level will hold in the range of 85,000 to 90,000.

• Market Tone:

For BTC, the short-term market appears relatively "calm," even in the face of significant volatility, without triggering panic selling.

Short-Term Outlook

This week, the derivative market may experience significant volatility, with prices encountering resistance at the short-term holder cost line (92k) even during a rebound.

Risk Advisory:

The above is all market discussion and exploration, not investment advice; please treat it with caution and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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